1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average ex factory price of domestic liquid caprolactam was 13800 yuan / ton on December 13 and 13800 yuan / ton on December 20. The price of caprolactam was stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

The caprolactam market was stable this week. At present, the supply side is short of caprolactam due to the load reduction operation of the enterprise. Procurement at the demand side is cautious, and more rigid needs to be purchased. The price of pure benzene on the cost side is good, which is favorable for caprolactam. As of December 20, the price of Sinopec caprolactam liquid was 13800 yuan / ton. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 13800 yuan / ton, 450000 tons / year. The unit is started normally and delivered after acceptance. The price of caprolactam liquid of Baling Petrochemical is 13800 yuan / ton, 450000 tons / year. The unit is started normally and delivered after acceptance. Shandong Luxi Chemical Liquid caprolactam liquid has no quotation at present, and the manufacturer’s production capacity is 300000 tons. The phase II unit is in shutdown. Shandong Haili liquid caprolactam liquid has no quotation for the time being. The manufacturer has a production capacity of 200000 tons and the unit is in shutdown. Nanjing fubangte Dongfang caprolactam liquid price is 13900 yuan / ton, which is accepted and withdrawn within 6 months, and the manufacturer’s unit capacity is 400000 tons / year.

The raw material pure benzene fell after rising this week. New units will be put into operation in the downstream of speculation in Shandong. The market negotiation atmosphere is positive. The price has continuously risen to the high level of 6850-6900 yuan / ton. Driven by the rise in East China, pure benzene has continued to rise in the first half of the week. However, with the continuous rise in the price of pure benzene, the resistance in the downstream has increased, the follow-up mood has dropped, and the downstream devices have not been put into operation as scheduled, so the mentality of the industry has changed to caution. It is heard that pure benzene in East China port will continue to accumulate in the next week, and the inventory pressure will further depress the market mentality. Pure benzene fell continuously in the second half of the week. This week, Sinopec raised the price of pure benzene by 150 yuan / ton to 6600 yuan / ton, and some enterprises in North China increased by 400 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Caprolactam analysts of business society believe that the price of raw material pure benzene falls near the weekend this week, the supply of caprolactam enterprises may increase next week, and the downstream demand is insufficient to follow up. It is expected that caprolactam will operate smoothly in the short term. It is suggested to pay attention to the change of raw material price and market supply.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of December 21, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 13400.00 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last Thursday (December 16), decreased by 5.63% compared with November 21, and decreased by 19.92% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

the near future (12.16-12.21) the market price of propylene oxide is stable. Recently, the price of raw material propylene is stable, with little impact on the cost. On the 16th, the market is temporarily stable and wait-and-see, the factory shipment has improved, and the inventory is gradually digested, but the downstream follow-up is relatively general, and the market continues to be stable and wait-and-see. At the beginning of this week, the factory inventory pressure is not large temporarily, the market atmosphere is flat, and the downstream purchases on demand, so watch and see carefully The price was stable. On the 21st, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong was around 12950-13100 yuan / ton.

For upstream propylene, on December 20, the reference price of propylene was 7425.67, a decrease of 1.59% compared with December 1 (7545.50).

Downstream propylene glycol, according to the data monitoring chart of business society, on December 20, the domestic propylene glycol market was running upward as a whole. The average ex factory price of propylene glycol was 17616 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as that of the previous working day. On the 20th, the trading atmosphere in the domestic propylene glycol market remained stable, just needed, the propylene glycol inventory pressure was small, and the overall trading atmosphere was acceptable.

The propylene oxide analyst of business society believes that at present, the price of raw material propylene is mainly stable, the cost support is limited, the factory shipment is general, the inventory increases slightly, the demand side performance is cold, and the market cautious wait-and-see mood is strong. It is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide market may be dominated by stalemate and weak operation, and more attention should be paid to the guidance of market news.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (average ex factory price of carbide SG5), the decline was 2.54% last week (12.13-12.17). On December 20, the average mainstream price of PVC in China was 8440 yuan / ton, down 220 yuan / ton compared with 8660 yuan / ton at the beginning of last week, down 0.58% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Looking back last week, the PVC market continued to be weak, the price continued to decline, with a decrease of 2.54% during the week, and the market focus continued to move downward. Recently, the market is still good and difficult to find. The PVC price has been steadily reduced, with a daily decline of about 1% and a narrow adjustment. Although the futures price has rebounded to a certain extent, it has a limited impact on the spot market. A few enterprises try to rebound, but the demand is off-season, the transmission of high prices is not smooth, and the price is still the main actor. At present, the demand is gradually weakening in the off-season, especially in the north, with obvious cooling, declining commencement and reduced demand, as well as in other mainstream regions. The downstream purchasing mood is negative, maintaining rigid demand, and the market trading atmosphere is general. Up to now, the quotation range of domestic pvc5 electric stone enterprises is mostly around 8200-8700 yuan / ton, and that of ethylene enterprises is mostly 9350-9500 yuan / ton, dominated by bad, PVC prices fell.

According to the weekly rise and fall from September 27 to December 19, 2021, the domestic PVC cycle rose in the early stage. Since October, the downward channel has been opened. Since November, the decline has narrowed compared with the early stage, with a fluctuation of less than 3%, but the market is still weak.

As for the external price, up to now, CFR China has fallen 50 to US $1350 / ton, CFR Southeast Asia has fallen 100 to US $1350 / ton, and CFR India has fallen 10 to US $1590 / ton. In January 2022, the PVC quotation of Formosa Plastics in Taiwan was reduced, FOB Taiwan fell 190 to 1270 US dollars / ton, CIF China fell 130 to 1360 US dollars / ton, CIF India fell 120 to 1590 US dollars / ton, and CIF Northeast Asia fell 100 to 1430 US dollars / ton.

International crude oil, December 17, international oil prices fell. The settlement price of the main contract of us WTI crude oil futures was US $70.72/barrel, down US $1.66 or 2.29%, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $73.52/barrel, down US $1.50 or 2.0%. The main reason is the surge in cases of the mutant strain Omicron. The market is worried that the implementation of new restrictions may depress fuel demand and put pressure on oil prices.

Ethylene, on December 17, the US ethylene market, FD US Gulf quoted us $768-786 / ton, up US $106 / ton. Recently, the US ethylene market has risen, and the demand is general. On December 17, according to the European ethylene market, FD northwest Europe quoted us $1489-1494 / T, up US $92 / T, and CIF northwest Europe quoted us $1385-1394 / T, up US $71 / T. On December 17, according to the Asian ethylene market, CFR Northeast Asia quoted us $1051-1061 / ton, down US $5 / ton, and CFR Southeast Asia quoted us $1036-1046 / ton, down US $5 / ton. Affected by the decline of upstream crude oil price, the ethylene market may mainly fall below in the later stage.

Calcium carbide, in late December, the market of calcium carbide may fluctuate slightly. The price of raw material blue carbon fell slightly, the cost support of calcium carbide weakened, and the downstream PVC market also showed a downward trend. It was difficult for the market to improve, and the downstream demand weakened. In the future, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate slightly in late December.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of business society believe that recently, PVC prices are still the following actors, and enterprises continue to reduce prices and sell goods for profit. However, in the off-season of demand, the market trading atmosphere is general, coupled with the decline of raw materials, and the market is full of negative factors. It is expected that the PVC market is easy to fall but difficult to rise in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of caustic soda rose and fell this week. From the beginning of the week to the weekend, the average price in Shandong market was 785 yuan / ton, up 61.86% over the same period last year. On December 16, the commodity index of caustic soda was 112.95, up 1.44 points from yesterday, down 57.45% from the highest point of 265.47 points in the cycle (2021-10-27), and up 73.48% from the lowest point of 65.11 points on October 9, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Caustic soda prices rose and fell this week. Due to the impact of the epidemic situation in Zhejiang, the start-up of enterprises is limited, the output of caustic soda decreases, and the price of caustic soda manufacturers increases slightly. In addition, due to the low price of caustic soda in the early stage and the reduced pressure on the delivery of low-grade caustic soda, caustic soda enterprises raised the price of caustic soda. At present, the mainstream ex factory price of 32% alkali in Shandong is about 750-850 yuan / ton. In addition, with the environmental protection inspection at the end of the year and the arrival of the Winter Olympic Games, the supply is expected to decrease and the price of caustic soda will rise slightly.

Downstream: alumina in the downstream of caustic soda is mostly purchased on demand, and the overall demand is better than that in the early stage. It is expected that there is still demand space for caustic soda in the later stage.

According to the price monitoring of the business society, in the list of price rise and fall of chlor alkali industry in the 49th week of 2021 (12.6-12.10), there were 0 kinds of commodities rising, 4 kinds of commodities falling and 1 kind of commodities rising or falling to 0. The main commodities falling were calcium carbide (- 4.52%), light soda (- 3.20%) and caustic soda (- 2.18%). The average rise and fall this week was – 2.27%.

Business analysts believe that in the near future, the overall transaction of caustic soda is better than that in the early stage, and the supply is expected to decrease. The downstream alumina demand is better than that in the early stage. It is expected that caustic soda will run better in the future, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of December 10, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol was 16933 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on December 5, 2021 (propylene glycol reference price 17633 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 700 yuan / ton, a decrease of 3.97%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business society that this week, the overall domestic propylene glycol market showed a downward trend. The performance of just needed procurement in the field was poor, the wait-and-see mood was strong, the performance of raw material propylene oxide was stable, and the support was OK. The units in some areas resumed operation, the supply in the field increased, the downstream operating rate was low, the demand support was insufficient, and the transaction of new orders in the field was light, The game between supply and demand appears, Since the beginning of this week (the 7th), the domestic propylene glycol market price has been adjusted all the way down, and the center of gravity has been exploring downward. Until Thursday (the 9th), the domestic propylene glycol ex factory price refers to 16500-17000 yuan / ton, which is about 500-1000 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week. Friday On the 10th, the domestic propylene glycol market slightly warmed up, some units in some areas were temporarily shut down for maintenance, the on-site supply was reduced, the trading atmosphere was improved, new orders in the downstream were increased, the propylene glycol inventory pressure was relieved, and the propylene glycol factory raised the ex factory price of propylene glycol by about 200-300 yuan / ton. Up to the end of the week (December 10), the ex factory price of propylene glycol in China is around 16800-17300 yuan / ton, and the average price is 16933 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 3.97% during the week. At present, the overall gas buying of propylene glycol field is rising, and the supply and demand has a stable trend.

In terms of index, the propylene glycol commodity index on December 9 was 215.38, down 0.86 points from yesterday, down 30.96% from the highest point 311.97 in the cycle (2021-10-27), and up 115.38% from the lowest point 100.00 on September 2, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2020-09-01 to now)

In terms of upstream propylene oxide, the recent market price of propylene oxide is mainly stable. At the beginning of June, the price of raw propylene went down, the cost support was loose, and the downstream follow-up was slightly insufficient, but the factory inventory was low, supporting the price, and the market operated at a stable price. With the small rise in the price of raw propylene, the cost side was slightly supported, the factory inventory was still controllable, the demand side performance was cold, more cautious, and the market was in a stalemate, On the 10th, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong was around 14200-14300 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of December 10, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 14600 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with that on December 1.

Future trend analysis

At present, the raw material ring propylene market operates stably and the cost support is stable. The increase of downstream orders of some propylene glycol plants drives the positive attitude of the market. The propylene glycol data division of business society believes that in the short term, the overall trend of propylene glycol in the field is expected to be strong, and more attention should be paid to the news changes of supply and demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, toluene fell first and then rose this week. On December 3, the price was 5810 yuan / ton; On Friday (December 10), the price was 5800.2 yuan / ton, down 0.17% from last week and up 49.49% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

Crude oil rose broadly this week, with strong cost support, boosting the domestic toluene Market. However, because a large number of ships from Northeast China are sold to East China, the inventory is accumulated and the market is under pressure. Downstream demand continues to be rigid demand, with general support. During the week, the market followed Sinopec’s price adjustment and the increase was limited.

In terms of the external market, the Asian toluene rose slightly in the external market this week. On Friday (December 10), the price of toluene imported from South Korea was US $703 / ton, up US $6 / ton, or 0.86%, compared with December 3.

In terms of crude oil, Saudi Arabia is expected to maintain strong crude oil demand in the future, and raised the official sales price of all crude oil grades in Asia and the United States in January. The market’s concern about the inhibition of crude oil demand by the new crown mutant strain Omicron eased, the price rebounded sharply, and the price returned to above $70 / barrel. Brent rose $5.27 / barrel, or 7.54% this week; WTI rose $5.41/barrel, or 8.16%.

povidone Iodine

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China rose this week. On December 10, the price of domestic goods was 14625 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.74% over last week and 15.16% over the same period last year.

In the PX market, the domestic PX price this week was flat compared with the beginning of the week. On Friday (December 10), the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene was 6700 yuan / ton, up 55.81% over the same period last year. As of December 10, the closing prices in Asia were 814-816 us dollars / ton, FOB Korea and 832-834 US dollars / ton CFR China.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline in Shandong rose first and then fell this week. The price was 7886.8 yuan / ton on December 3 and 7789.2 yuan / ton on December 10, down 1.24% from last week and 36.57% from the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the market is still worried about the new crown variant strain Omicron. Many countries strengthen epidemic prevention and control measures. Before further determining its impact, the demand for crude oil will still be limited. Continue to pay attention to the impact of the global epidemic, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

A large number of ships are sold in Northeast China, and the market is under pressure; The downstream demand continues to be light, and the short-term toluene price is still affected by the trend of crude oil. Pay attention to the dynamics of toluene plant, downstream plant dynamics and demand, as well as the impact of crude oil and external market trend on toluene price.

This week, the lead market (12.03-12.10) fluctuated downward. The average price of the domestic market was 15168.75 yuan / ton last weekend and 15418.75 yuan / ton this weekend, with a weekly increase of 1.65%.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes of K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall.

In terms of futures, Lun lead showed a “V” trend, with an overall shock range of US $2182-2300 / ton. At the beginning of the week, the metal market was generally under pressure, and Lun lead fell with it. In the following week, it was boosted by the decline of LME lead inventory and stopped falling and rebounded. The trend of Shanghai lead this week is basically consistent with that of Lun lead. On Tuesday, the futures market stopped falling and rebounded, boosted by the domestic RRR reduction.

In terms of spot market, the trend this week is basically consistent with that of Shanghai lead. Recently, the operation of the smelter is relatively stable and the supply is acceptable. With the increase of spot lead price, the profits of downstream enterprises are squeezed, and the downstream price reduction mentality is strong. Near the end of the year, the output task is basically completed, the sales situation of downstream storage enterprises is relatively general, and the enthusiasm for purchasing primary lead is slightly low, mainly on demand.

According to the price monitoring of the business society, there are 10 commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 49th week of 2021 (12.6-12.10). The top three commodities are neodymium (4.21%), lead (3.35%) and cobalt (3.31%). There are 8 kinds of commodities with a month on month decrease, and 1 kind of commodity with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 4.5% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were silicon (- 7.91%), nickel (- 2.14%) and silver (- 2.07%). The average rise and fall this week was 0.46%, and non-ferrous commodities rose more or fell less this week.

On the whole, most electrolytic lead manufacturers at the supply side have resumed production, and the start-up of recycled lead enterprises has decreased slightly due to environmental protection factors recently. The downstream storage enterprises at the demand side started relatively stably, and still focused on maintaining rigid demand procurement. Under the weak balance of supply and demand, the price of lead may follow the trend of futures and fluctuate weakly.

The price of orthobenzene remained stable this week

According to the data monitoring of business society, the quotation of o-xylene fell this week. As of December 13, the listing price of Sinopec was 6300 yuan / ton, down 4.55% from 6600 yuan / ton on December 3 last week. The orthobenzene market was weak and fell.

Raw material prices fell first and then rose

According to the monitoring data of business society, the price of mixed xylene, a raw material of orthobenzene, fell first and then rose this week. The mixed xylene market stopped falling and warmed up, with an increase of 0.86% this week. The price of raw materials rose, and the cost of o-xylene stopped falling and rising; The downward pressure on the price of ortho benzene weakened and the upward momentum remained.

The downstream market stopped falling and stabilized

According to the monitoring data of business society, the price of phthalic anhydride fell first and then rose this week, and the phthalic anhydride market fluctuated and stabilized. This week, the price of phthalic anhydride was flat, the market of phthalic anhydride stopped falling and warmed up, the downward pressure of phthalic anhydride weakened, the demand for phthalic acid was general, and the downward pressure of phthalic acid weakened.

Market Overview

According to the monitoring of business agency, the raw material mixed xylene of o-xylene and the price of downstream phthalic anhydride recovered this week, the cost of o-xylene increased, the demand for o-xylene recovered, the support for the rise of o-xylene increased, and the downward pressure weakened. It is expected that the market of o-xylene will stabilize in the future.

Recent price trend of sulfuric acid

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic sulfuric acid market price increased slightly this week, and the quotation increased from 620.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 638.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 2.96%, an increase of 45.90% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Overall, the domestic sulfuric acid market rose slightly this week. On December 9, the sulfuric acid commodity index was 98.31, unchanged from yesterday, down 29.16% from the highest point of 138.78 in the cycle (2021-10-21), and up 211.90% from the lowest point of 31.52 on June 6, 2019. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream support is insufficient, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is general

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the prices of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers rose this week, the manufacturer’s inventory was general, and the downstream demand was general. Heze Jiangyuan sulfuric acid is quoted at 870 yuan / ton this weekend, up 40 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Zouping Tianlu sulfuric acid quoted 450 yuan / ton this weekend, up 70 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Changzhou Qinghong sulfuric acid is quoted at 700 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Changzhou Changjiang sulfuric acid is quoted at 650 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Xiangcheng San’an sulfuric acid is quoted at 700 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Liaocheng Huatong sulfuric acid quoted 460 yuan / ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the upstream sulfur market fell slightly this week. The quotation fell from 2000.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1933.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.50%, a year-on-year increase of 91.42% compared with the same period last year, and the cost support continued to weaken. The downstream bromine market fell slightly, and the quotation fell from 66750.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 62857.14 yuan / ton this weekend, down 5.83%, up 90.48% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The downstream formic acid market rose slightly. The quotation increased from 4133.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 4200.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.61%, up 88.06% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The downstream market rose and fell with each other. On the whole, the upstream and downstream products had a negative impact on the price of sulfuric acid this week.

The market outlook fell slightly

In mid December, the domestic sulfuric acid market may fluctuate and fall slightly. The price of upstream sulfur still fell slightly recently, and the cost support is insufficient. Although the downstream formic acid market rose this week, the downstream bromine market has been falling. Downstream customers have general enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid, and the product trend is downward under the contradiction between supply and demand. Sulfuric acid analysts of business society believe that under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials in the domestic sulfuric acid Market in the short term, the sulfuric acid market may fluctuate and decline slightly.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, from December 3 to December 10, the average market price of cyclohexanone in China rose from 9733 yuan / ton to 10166 yuan / ton, with an increase of 4.45% in the week, a month on month decrease of 9.02% and a year-on-year increase of 51.74%.

The domestic cyclohexanone market continued to rise this week, with a slight correction over the weekend. Crude oil and pure benzene improved during the week, and the cost support was temporarily stable. Hualu Hengsheng, Haili and other devices are not exported, and the commodity supply is significantly reduced. In addition, some downstream enterprises focus on a small amount of cyclohexanone, the shipping pressure of cyclohexanone factories is reduced, and the manufacturers rise in a narrow range.

Summary of domestic cyclohexanone market as of December 10:

region ., Price

East China 10300-10400 yuan / ton cash delivery

South China 10600-10700 yuan / ton cash delivery

Shandong region 10100-10200 yuan / ton cash delivery

Raw material pure benzene: the price of pure benzene fluctuated and strengthened. During the cycle, crude oil and styrene rose, while pure benzene rose with shocks. The market was cautious, the buying was light, and the increase of pure benzene was lower than that of upstream and downstream products.

Comparison chart of price trend of pure benzene (upstream raw material) and cyclohexanone in business society:

 
Downstream caprolactam: Recently, several caprolactam units in the north have been overhauled and reduced the load. Hualu Hengsheng, Luxi Chemical and Cangzhou Xuyang basically gradually recovered in the latter half of the year, and other units have little change temporarily. If the supply of more than units is restored in the latter half of the year, caprolactam may still be relatively abundant. The purchase of chemical fiber is still expected to be a rigid demand order.

Comparison chart of price trend of cyclohexanone and caprolactam (downstream products) in business community:

The cost side is temporarily stable. The spot supply of cyclohexanone is tight, but the downstream procurement demand is weak. The cyclohexanone analysts of business society expect that the short-term cyclohexanone market will be volatile.