In December, the domestic corn ethanol market fluctuated and sorted out, and the overall price is still at a high level. According to the sample data monitored by the business community, the price was 7000 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.18% in the month, and the price was flat year-on-year.

Annual comparison chart of ethanol prices from 2017 to 2021:

At the beginning of June, the listing volume of new season corn continued to increase, and the supply increased, which may affect the price of corn. However, farmers are reluctant to sell and the drying price is high, or support the high consolidation of short-term price. It is difficult to alleviate the cost pressure of corn ethanol plant and have room for improvement. Baijiu demand or gradual improvement. In terms of chemical industry, it is difficult to bring obvious support to the market by continuing to maintain rigid demand procurement. In the short term, the domestic ethanol market is mainly high and fluctuated slightly.

In the middle of the month, with the continuous increase of the listing volume of corn in the new season, the corn price in the main production areas is expected to callback, and the cost pressure of corn ethanol plants will be relieved, which supports the commencement of corn ethanol industry. Baijiu demand or gradual improvement. In chemical industry, ethyl acetate plant may have bidding demand; The overall market demand is relatively stable.

In late June, the domestic ethanol market entered the consolidation stage. Recently, the prices of raw corn and coal have returned to calm, and the cost of ethanol has little impact on the market. The demand is mostly rigid demand, chemical demand is relatively stable, and the operating rate of downstream enterprises is generally high. Baijiu industry is approaching the demand due to holidays.

Monthly K column chart of ethanol domestic production price:

Weekly K column chart of ethanol domestic production price:

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices in December 2021, there were 35 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the chemical sector, including 19 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 18.1% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were chloroform (41.13%), lithium carbonate (37.11%) and dichloromethane (36.91%). A total of 62 commodities decreased month on month, and 40 commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 38.1% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were melamine (- 40.08%), baking soda (- 29.05%) and butadiene (- 27.26%). The average rise and fall this month was – 2.38%.

Comparison chart of price trend of corn (upstream raw material) and ethanol in business community:

Comparison chart of price trend of ethanol and ethyl acetate (downstream products) of business society:

As of December 31, the latest price dynamics of ethanol market in various regions:

Region, Category, Price

Shandong region General level 6830-6850 yuan / ton

Shandong region Superior corn 7100-7250 yuan / ton

Shandong region Corn anhydrous 7600 yuan / ton

Southern Jiangsu General level 7100-7200 yuan / ton

Northern Jiangsu General level 6750-6850 yuan / ton

Northern Jiangsu Superior 7000 yuan / ton

Northern Jiangsu anhydrous 7650-7700 yuan / ton

Anhui region Cassava general About 6900 yuan / ton, including tax

Anhui region anhydrous About 7700 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Sichuan region Corn alcohol 7500-7600 yuan / ton, tax included

Yunnan region Molasses alcohol 6900-7000 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Jinzhou area, Liaoning Province Corn alcohol general grade 6750-6850 yuan / ton

Heilongjiang Region General level 6100-6300 yuan / ton, tax included

Heilongjiang Region Absolute ethanol 6800-7000 yuan / ton

Jilin Region Ordinary alcohol 6350-6650 yuan / ton

Jilin Region Premium alcohol 6750 yuan / ton

Jilin Region Absolute ethanol 6900-7300 yuan / ton, tax included

Guangxi region Honey alcohol 7100 yuan / ton

Guangxi region Corn / Cassava 95% alcohol 6800-7100 yuan / ton

Guangxi region Absolute ethanol 7700-7750 yuan / ton

Guangdong region Honey alcohol 7150-7250 yuan / ton, Dongguan self delivery

Guangdong region Rice / Cassava / corn general ethanol About 7000 yuan / ton

Guangdong region Anhydrous cassava ethanol 7900-8100 yuan / ton

Henan region Superior 7000-7050 yuan / ton, tax included

Henan region Absolute ethanol 7550-7750 yuan / ton, tax included

Hebei region General level 6400-6450 yuan / ton

Hebei region anhydrous 7150 yuan / ton

Raw corn and molasses fluctuated at a high level, and the cost pressure of the factory was high. However, the falling price of raw cassava will benefit some cassava ethyl ester factories, and the market supply is sufficient. The downstream chemical industry maintained just needed procurement, and the overall performance of new orders in the market was average. The ethanol analyst of business society expects that the domestic ethanol market will be mainly sorted out in the short term.

In December, the domestic butyl acetate market continued the decline of last month, and the price continued to decline, with an obvious decline, which was mainly affected by the weak cost and weak supply of upstream acetic acid. According to the monitoring of business society, butyl acetate fell by 10.64% in the month. At the end of the month, the domestic mainstream quotation of butyl acetate was 9400-9700 yuan / ton. At present, butyl acetate has entered the process of continuous bottom exploration.

First, in terms of the upstream acetic acid market, according to the monitoring of the business society, the acetic acid price decreased significantly in December. The average price of acetic acid at the beginning of the month was 6590 yuan / ton, the price at the end of the month was 6180 yuan / ton, the price decreased by 410 yuan / ton within the month, a decrease of 6.22%, and the price increased by 35.33% year-on-year. Most of the acetic acid units operated normally this month. Although some enterprises maintained their units, due to the preparation of goods in the early stage, the market supply was sufficient, while the downstream demand was weak, and the focus of the acetic acid market continued to move downward under the trend of oversupply. The cost support weakened, and the downstream ethyl acetate and butyl ester prices fell.

In addition, in terms of upstream n-butanol, according to the monitoring of business society, n-butanol continued its decline in November in December, with a decline of 7.84%. The domestic downstream demand was cautious, and the n-butanol plant accumulated inventory, increasing the shipping pressure. In the last ten days, the market rebounded slightly, downstream users replenished on bargain hunting, the trading atmosphere on the floor was peaceful, and the overall supply pressure of n-butanol was relieved. This is also an important reason for the downstream butyl acetate to stop falling and stabilize.

In terms of supply and demand, the operating rate of major manufacturers is high this month, and the market supply is sufficient. Under the pressure of inventory, the prices of major manufacturers continued to decline, with a cumulative decline of nearly 1000 yuan in the whole month. The manufacturer’s shipment speed is weak, and the price support psychology is weakened, which has a significant impact on the market. In addition, traders are not active in taking goods, and downstream factories on the demand side are only limited to just need to buy. Market trading is not active, demand follow-up is insufficient, and the market has not substantially improved.

Future forecast: in the short term, acetic acid on the cost side will obviously stop falling and stabilize, and n-butanol will hit the bottom and rebound, which will form a bottom support for downstream butyl acetate and may rebound in the later stage. However, the supply side is still relatively sufficient, the demand performance at the end of the year is general, and the social inventory is still high. It is comprehensively expected that the butyl acetate Market will stabilize or rebound in the near future, but the increase may be very limited.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, pure benzene fluctuated higher in the first half of this month, with an increase of more than 5%; In the second half of the month, prices fell first and then rose, and prices continued to rise. On December 1, the price was 6100-6450 yuan / ton (the average price was 6340 yuan / ton); On December 30, the price was 6950-7100 yuan / ton (the average price was 7020 yuan / ton), the highest price of this month appeared on December 30, the price was 7020 yuan / ton, and the lowest price appeared on December 2-3, the price was 6310 yuan / ton. This month increased by 10.73%, up 66.98% over the same period last year, and the difference between the highest and lowest prices in the month was 710 yuan / ton.

2、 Analysis and review

In the first ten days, pure benzene fluctuated upward in a narrow range. In mid June, Shandong hyped the news that new downstream devices were about to be put into operation, and the price rose rapidly. However, the production of downstream units was delayed, and the port continued to be tired, and the price of pure benzene fluctuated and fell to the end of the month. Downstream production and replenishment at the end of the month led to a new round of rise in pure benzene.

This month, the pure benzene market continued to be affected by the bad accumulation of port inventory. The price fell after rising for many times. At the end of the month, the accumulated inventory rose to a high level, and the inventory pressure in East China was obvious.

This month, Sinopec’s pure benzene price was mainly increased four times, with a total increase of 850 yuan / ton to 7300 yuan / ton. Affected by demand, North China fluctuated more frequently.

In terms of crude oil, the international oil price rebounded after falling to a low at the beginning of the month. The market constantly weighed the impact of Omicron mutant strain on economy and demand, and the international oil price fluctuated and rose. As of December 30, Brent rose $8.75 / barrel, or 12.4%; WTI rose $10.81/barrel, or 16.33%.

In terms of external market, Asian pure benzene rose mainly this month. In the early morning of December 23, a fire broke out at Mobil plant in Texas, USA, which affected the pure benzene plant. The US gold market rose significantly, driving the rise of pure benzene in Asia. On December 30, the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was US $986 / T, an increase of US $139 / T or 16.41% over November 30; Pure benzene imported from East China was USD 992.5/t, an increase of USD 119.5/t or 13.69% over November 30.

Downstream, styrene: after the shock rise of styrene this month, it fell broadly, and the price rebounded again at the end of the month. On December 1, the production price in Shandong was 7787.5 yuan / ton, and on December 30, the price was 8310 yuan / ton, an increase of 6.71% this month and 39.27% over the same period last year.

Aniline: aniline fell first and then rose this month. The market supply of aniline increased, the on-site buying was weak, the downstream consumption inventory was dominated, and the price fell. However, the cost side rose, driven by the bargain hunting sentiment in the downstream, the aniline inventory consumed rapidly, and the price stopped falling and rose broadly. On December 1, the price in Shandong was 9200-9380 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 9300-9500 yuan / ton; On December 30, the price in Shandong was 9500-9980 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 10000 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.78% this month and 23.63% over the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of raw materials, the prospect of crude oil demand is good, and the short-term high level of crude oil fluctuates under the positive influence of high European natural gas prices. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the impact of global climate, epidemic situation, OPEC + decisions on output, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions and so on on on crude oil prices.

Downstream main product styrene: Port inventory decreased, and some goods were sold at low prices, and domestic short-term spot was still tight. However, the domestic styrene is expected to increase one after another, and the weak downstream demand inhibits the market growth. In the short term, the styrene market is more likely to rise and fall.

In the short term, the Asian pure benzene market will continue to be affected by the US gold plate, and the price will remain high. Affected by public health events, the unloading cycle of the port will be prolonged, and the downstream air filling will also push up the price of pure benzene. However, at present, there are still a large number of shipments of pure benzene in transit. In the later stage, the port inventory will continue to increase, the inventory pressure will not decrease, and the market may be restricted. On the whole, pure benzene is expected to continue to rise. Beware of the possibility of price decline after the good news dissipates. Continue to pay attention to the dynamic market of downstream, the dynamics of domestic pure benzene units, and the impact of the trend of crude oil and external disk on the price of pure benzene.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, mixed xylene fell slightly this month. The price of xylene is 5890 yuan / ton on December 12; On December 30, the price was 5860 yuan / ton, the lowest price in this month was 5680 yuan / ton, and the highest price in this month was 5900 yuan / ton, down 0.51% from the beginning of the month; Compared with the same period last year, the price difference between the highest price and the lowest price in the month was 220 yuan / ton.

2、 Analysis and review

Mixed xylene is obviously affected by the trend of crude oil this month. At the beginning of the month, crude oil fell to a low level, and mixed xylene followed the decline in cost and related commodity prices. Mixed xylene surged as crude oil prices rebounded. Although the downstream demand is deadlocked, the port inventory of mixed xylene is normal, and the overall market is better than that of toluene. At the end of the month, boosted by the rise of crude oil and gasoline, prices rebounded at a low level.

In terms of crude oil, the international oil price rebounded after falling to a low at the beginning of the month. The market constantly weighed the impact of Omicron mutant strain on economy and demand, and the international oil price fluctuated and rose. As of December 30, Brent rose $8.75 / barrel, or 12.4%; WTI rose $10.81/barrel, or 16.33%.

In terms of external trading, the price of mixed xylene in Asia rose this month. On December 30, the price of mixed xylene imported from Korea was USD 768.5/t, an increase of USD 36 / T or 4.91% over November 30; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was US $790.5/t, an increase of US $35.5/t or 4.7% over November 30.

In the PX market, the domestic PX price continued to be stable this month, with the price at 6700 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 6700 yuan / ton at the end of the month. The price was flat compared with the beginning of the month and increased by 42.55% compared with the same period last year. On December 30, the closing price of p-xylene market in Asia was USD 874-876 / T FOB Korea and USD 892-894 / T CFR China.

In terms of PTA market, PTA prices in East China surged this month, with the price at 4478.6 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 4937.5 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 10.25% over the beginning of the month and 36.06% over the same period last year.

In terms of ox market, ox in East China stabilized after falling this month. The price was 6600 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 6300 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 4.55% from the beginning of the month and up 26% from the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline in Shandong fell sharply this month and rebounded slightly in the latter half of the month. The price was 7959.4 yuan / ton on December 1 and 7637 yuan / ton on December 31, down 4.05% from the beginning of the month and up 33.82% from the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of raw materials, the prospect of crude oil demand is good, and the short-term high level of crude oil fluctuates under the positive influence of high European natural gas prices. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the impact of global climate, epidemic situation, OPEC + decisions on output, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions and so on on on crude oil prices.

The short-term crude oil trend is strong and the cost side support is strong. However, the downstream demand is weak, and the supply of mixed xylene is expected to increase in the later stage. Overall, mixed xylene continued to fluctuate. Pay attention to the impact of crude oil and external market trend at the raw material end, plant dynamics of enterprises at the supply end, port inventory and downstream purchase at the demand end on the price of mixed xylene.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, aniline rose broadly after falling in the first half of this month, and maintained a narrow upward trend until the end of the month in the second half of this month. On December 1, the price in Shandong was 9200-9380 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 9300-9500 yuan / ton; On December 30, the price of aniline in Shandong was 9500-9980 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 10000 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.78% over the beginning of the month and 23.63% over the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

Raw material, pure benzene: affected by the negative impact of the continuous increase of port inventory, the price of pure benzene rose for many times this month and fell back. At the end of the month, the inventory accumulated to a high level, and the inventory pressure was obvious. During the month, the market hyped that new downstream units were put into operation, driving the positive rise of pure benzene market. Affected by the U.S. gold market at the end of the month, Asian pure benzene rose, and the domestic market rose to a high of this month. On December 1, the price was 6100-6450 yuan / ton (average price 6340 yuan / ton); on December 30, the price was 6950-7100 yuan / ton (average price 7020 yuan / ton), an increase of 10.73% this month and 66.98% over the same period last year.

Nitric acid: domestic nitric acid fell in shock this month, and the price fell broadly. The price of nitric acid in East China was 2533.33 yuan / ton on December 1 and 2250 yuan / ton on December 30, down 11.18% from the beginning of the month and up 9.76% from the same period last year.

At the beginning of the month, the bearish aniline market continued, the downstream buying was weak, the priority consumption inventory was given priority, and the weak aniline fell. However, with the rise in the price of pure benzene at the raw material end and the replenishment of stocks at the downstream bargain hunting, the purchasing sentiment increased, the inventory of aniline enterprises was released rapidly, and the price rebounded.

Affected by the Winter Olympics and environmental protection policies, the downstream operating rate of aniline decreased slightly, and the demand for aniline fell. Some enterprises shut down aniline plants, and the supply and demand reached a relatively stable state. The price of raw material pure benzene continued to rise, and aniline maintained a narrow upward trend in the second half of the month.

3、 Future forecast

Raw material, pure benzene: in the short term, the Asian pure benzene market will continue to be affected by the US gold plate, and the price will remain high. However, at present, there are still a large number of shipments of pure benzene in transit. In the later stage, the port inventory will continue to increase, the inventory pressure will not decrease, and the market may be restricted. On the whole, pure benzene is expected to continue to rise. Beware of the possibility of price decline after the good news dissipates.

Nitric acid: near the end of the year, the goods in the acid market are not good, and nitric acid may continue to operate at a low level.

Shutdown of Aniline Unit and small drop in supply; The downstream operating rate decreases slightly, the demand is general, and the supply and demand is temporarily stable. In the short term, the price trend of raw materials is strong. If the price of raw materials continues to rise, it may drive aniline to rise. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the changes of market supply and demand, the dynamics of aniline plant and the trend of raw materials.

In 2021, the trend of adipic acid in China was full of twists and turns, showing an overall upward trend. According to the monitoring of business society, the price of adipic acid in East China increased by 52% from 8000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 12200 yuan / ton at the end of the year. The rising price level is mainly affected by the rising cost and tight supply at this stage. From the perspective of the whole year, the unit operating rate of adipic acid enterprises maintained a reasonable level, and the supply and demand were basically balanced. From the monthly k-column chart of adipic acid, the increase months of the whole year are mostly, and the increase is mainly concentrated in February and March in the first quarter and September and October in the second half of the year.

Let’s learn about the trend of adipic acid in the whole year:

In the first half of the year, the overall domestic adipic acid market rose first and then fell. In the first quarter, the adipic acid Market performed well, mainly affected by the tightening of supply before the Spring Festival and the boost of downstream stock demand, and the price stopped falling and rebounded. Although Hualu has new units put into operation during this period, due to the opening of demand, both supply and demand are booming; The superimposed crude oil drives the continuous rise of upstream pure benzene. Adipic acid still rose strongly. According to the monitoring of business society, from the beginning of the year to mid March, the price of adipic acid in East China rose from 8000 yuan to 11500 yuan, an increase of more than 3000 yuan.

Since late March, the market began to decline gradually. Mainly due to the decline in oil prices, But it obviously deviates from the upstream pure benzene market (see the figure below for the price comparison between pure benzene and adipic acid). The more important reason is that the pressure of oversupply has gradually become prominent. The production of new units has led to an unprecedented increase in market supply. The new Hualu line has been put into operation, and the old Hongding and Liaohua lines have been restarted. However, the demand side is also out of touch. The downstream demand in the second quarter was low. Due to the unprecedented high price of adipic acid, it is positive for terminal demand and downstream procurement Sex brings pressure. However, due to the deviation of raw materials from the market, the decline of adipic acid was limited. The price at the end of June was about 10000 yuan, which is still a distance from the price at the beginning of the year.

In the second half of the year, adipic acid rose violently and the price fell slightly at the end of the year. From the end of June to the middle of July, the market rebounded, which was mainly affected by too many large plants and the decline of operating rate. However, from late July to early September, with the resumption of production of Shandong Hongding, Jiangsu Haili and Yangmei Taihua units, and the weak shock of upstream raw material pure benzene, the price was guided downward. But on the whole, the amplitude of adipic acid in the three months from June to early September is not large, about 1000 yuan.

Since mid September, adipic acid market started again and continued until mid November. The increase was strong, and the price generally rose from about 10000 yuan to the highest 13400 yuan / ton, an increase of more than 3000 yuan. The main reason is that, on the one hand, the price of upstream pure benzene has risen sharply, and more importantly, the supply and demand are both positive: on the supply side, the unit has entered the maintenance period. Throughout September, Haili is in the maintenance period. In October, Shenma and Tianli high tech units are in the maintenance period, and Tangshan Zhonghao two units are inspected in turn, resulting in an unprecedented reduction in market supply. In addition, the demand side performance is also commendable. The price of PA66 has increased significantly, and the supply is in short supply, resulting in the soaring price of adipic acid.

After mid November, the price of adipic acid fluctuated and fell back. On the one hand, the prices of upstream pure benzene and cyclohexanone fell sharply. In addition, the supply pressure is highlighted again. With the improvement of utilization efficiency of Shenma and Jiangsu Haili units, Chongqing Huafeng unit has also been restarted. With the increase of supply, the downstream has entered the traditional off-season, the procurement has gradually slowed down, and the contradiction between supply and demand has appeared. The price has fallen from 13000 yuan to 12000 yuan / ton by the end of the year.

2022 outlook

In the future, business analysts believe that adipic acid market may still maintain a high level in 2022. On the one hand, with the weakening trend of the epidemic, it may usher in high oil prices. High oil prices will generally benefit downstream chemicals. The prices of pure benzene, cyclohexanone and other products are expected to remain at a high level, and the high cost of raw materials will continue to benefit adipic acid.

In addition, from the supply side, the operating rate of adipic acid plant is generally lower than 70% in most of 2021, and the utilization efficiency of the plant is not high. It can be seen that there is a certain overcapacity in the market. So supply may still be a constraint on the market.

On the demand side, it is expected that the economy will continue to recover next year, and the impact of the epidemic will continue to weaken. Downstream PA66 and polyurethane may grow slowly, but due to the positive impact of environmental protection policies, the field of degradable plastics (PBAT) may grow significantly. However, due to the slowdown of economic growth, terminal demand should also be treated with caution.

Considering comprehensively, the adipic acid price trend may continue to rise in 2022, and the period may be different by stages due to the change of enterprise operating rate. But the overall level may be higher than this year.

In 2021, the market price of lithium hydroxide rose again and again, all the way up. According to the bulk list data of business society, the average price of domestic industrial lithium hydroxide enterprises was 52000 yuan / ton on January 1, 2021. As of December 28, the average price of domestic industrial lithium hydroxide enterprises was 2133333.33 yuan / ton, up 310.26% during the year.

It can be seen from the annual comparison chart of business society that the lithium hydroxide market fell weakly in 2020, with an annual increase or decrease of – 9.83%. In 2021, the lithium hydroxide Market was strong and upward, with an annual increase or decrease of 310.26%.

According to the monthly rise and fall chart of lithium hydroxide from January 2021 to November 2021, there is no monthly decline in lithium hydroxide in 2021. The high market price runs smoothly in October and November, with the largest increase in September, up to 37.09%.

In the first quarter (January March), the price of lithium hydroxide increased by 44.23%. Affected by the rise of upstream lithium carbonate, it has boosted the lithium hydroxide Market, increased downstream demand, accelerated the consumption of low-cost inventory in the field, gradually improved the market supply and demand pattern, and the price rose. With the tight spot supply in the domestic market, the downstream demand is stable, the merchant mentality is strong, and the quotation continues to rise.

In the second quarter (April June), the price of lithium hydroxide increased by 19.56%. In April, the domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide market rose steadily. After entering may and returning from the festival, the lithium hydroxide market rose steadily. The upstream spodumene goods were tight and the price was high, and the downstream demand performed well. The quotation of the cargo holder was strong, the market low price decreased significantly, and the overall trend was positive. In June, the spot supply in the market was tight, the favorable support on the demand side continued, and the on-site offer continued to be strong and upward.

In the third quarter (July September), the price of lithium hydroxide increased by 85.50%. In July, when some manufacturers stopped for maintenance and the output decreased, the market spot supply tightened, the downstream demand performed better, the export orders increased month on month, the market supply and demand was in tight balance, and the enterprise quotation increased. In August, the upstream spodumene goods were tight and the price rose, the cost pressure was upward, some smelters were still in the maintenance period, the tight spot supply situation continued, and the demand side performed better, The market atmosphere was active, the enterprise offer was high, and it was difficult to find low-cost goods. In September, the lithium hydroxide market continued to rise. The price of spodumene in the upstream was strong, the price of lithium carbonate continued to rise sharply, and the cost support was strong. There were many enterprises alone, and the market supply increased. However, the spot supply of mainstream manufacturers was still limited, the downstream follow-up was positive and stable, and the market fundamentals were good, The supplier has strong intention to support the market, and the price is firm and upward.

In the fourth quarter (October December), the price of lithium hydroxide increased by 28.26% as of December 28. In October, the price of industrial grade lithium hydroxide was stable at a high level, the price of raw materials was strong, the cost pressure remained, and the price was stable under the relative balance between supply and demand. In November, the price was high. In December, the price of raw spodumene was strong, the price of lithium carbonate increased, the cost support was obvious, the market inquiry and procurement atmosphere increased, the driving atmosphere was strong, and the price of lithium hydroxide increased steadily.

Upstream lithium carbonate, lithium carbonate rose strongly in 2021. According to the data monitoring of business agency: as of December 27, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 260000 yuan / ton, an increase of 420% compared with the price at the beginning of the year. On December 27, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 273000 yuan / ton, an increase of 400% compared with the price at the beginning of the year.

Data chart of lithium hydroxide output of major manufacturers in China in 2020 and 2021 (unit: 10000 tons)

Import data of lithium hydroxide in 2020 and 2021 (unit: kg)

Lithium hydroxide export data in 2020 and 2021 (unit: kg)

Forecast analysis:

The lithium hydroxide analyst of business society believes that at present, the price of raw materials lithium carbonate and spodumene is tight, the cost side support is strong, the demand is good, supported by multiple factors, and the market bullish atmosphere is strong. It is expected that the domestic lithium hydroxide market may run stronger in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of business society, the price trend of domestic fluorite rose in 2021. The average price at the beginning of the year was 2718.89 yuan / ton, and the average price of domestic fluorite at the end of the year was 2855.56 yuan / ton, an increase of 503% for the whole year. It can be clearly seen from the fluorite price trend chart that the highest price of fluorite in 2020 appears in the middle of December, the highest price is 2877.78 yuan / ton, the lowest price of fluorite appears on July 30, and the lowest price is 2611.11 yuan / ton. The price of fluorite fluctuates little throughout the year, and the overall trend rises.

As can be seen from the k-column chart of monthly fluorite price in 2021, the market price of fluorite in the whole year has increased more and decreased less. The price trend of fluorite in the whole year is roughly divided into three stages. The first stage is from the beginning of the year to mid March, and the domestic fluorite market price has increased slightly; In the second stage, from late March to the end of July, the domestic fluorite price fell sharply; The third stage is from August to the end of the year. The price trend of fluorite continues to rise. The specific trend is as follows:

In the first stage, from the beginning of 2021 to the middle of March, the domestic fluorite market price increased slightly, the price at the beginning of the year was 2718.89 yuan / ton, and the price in the middle of March was 2766.67 yuan / ton, with a price trend of 1.76%. The main impacts are as follows: on the one hand, in terms of supply, due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, there are many parking of domestic fluorite devices during the period, the supply of fluorite in the yard is relatively tight, and the price trend of fluorite rises slightly; On the other hand, in terms of demand, the delivery situation of domestic hydrofluoric acid manufacturers has improved, the hydrofluoric acid market price has increased, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price has increased by 11.34%, the downstream hydrofluoric acid market price has increased sharply, and the fluorite market is supported by favorable conditions, and the price has decreased a little. Finally, the market situation of the downstream refrigerant of the terminal is good. Recently, the transaction of the downstream refrigerant market of the terminal has improved. In addition, the automobile sales market is good, the domestic R22 supply is normal, and the domestic refrigerant R22 market price has increased. However, the operating load of the manufacturer’s production units is still not high, the supply of goods in the market is general, the downstream air conditioning manufacturers stop more, and the demand changes little, The mainstream price of large domestic enterprises is 14000-16000 yuan / ton. Domestic R134a manufacturers operate with reduced load, and the supply decline makes the price rise. In addition, the downstream enterprises are gradually started, and the demand is expected to increase, but the traders have a strong wait-and-see mood. At present, the market quotation of refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 19000-22000 yuan / ton. The downstream refrigerant market has improved, which is good for the fluorite price. At this stage, the fluorite price trend is rising.

In the second stage, from late March to the end of July, the price trend of domestic fluorite fell. The price of domestic fluorite decreased from 2766.67 yuan / ton to 2611.11 yuan / ton, a decrease of 5.62%. The price trend of domestic fluorite has declined. On the one hand, the operating rate of domestic fluorite units has been rising recently, the on-site mines and flotation units have gradually resumed work, and the on-site fluorite supply has increased. Due to the sufficient supply of on-site goods, the fluorite price has continued to decline, and the price trend of downstream hydrofluoric acid has declined. For the on-demand procurement of fluorite market, the on-site delivery of fluorite is poor, Fluorite market prices fell. The recent operation of downstream units is general, the spot supply of fluorite in the field is sufficient, and the downstream procurement of the terminal is not active, resulting in the decline of market price trend. On the other hand, the recent sales in the automotive industry have been average, the market situation of refrigerant downstream of the terminal has not improved, and the demand for refrigerant has been declining. At present, the load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, the inventory is within a reasonable range, and the market price remains low. However, the downstream receiving capacity is limited, there is a lot of wait-and-see mood, and the shipment of cargo holders is not smooth, The mainstream of on-site negotiation is at the level of 15500-17000 yuan / ton. There are many parking lots for downstream air conditioning manufacturers, and the demand changes little. In addition, affected by the global epidemic, the export of refrigerant industry is poor, the transaction focus moves down, the market is weak, the demand for downstream refrigerant does not improve, and the price trend of fluorite market declines.

The third stage is from August to the end of the year, and the price of fluorite rose sharply. At the beginning of this stage, the domestic refrigerant industry rose sharply. Supported by the favorable downstream market, the fluorite price rose. Then, with the cold weather, the fluorite supply in the field declined, resulting in the high fluorite price. At the end of the year, the fluorite price was 2855.56 yuan / ton, and the increase in the third stage was 9.36%. In the third quarter, the domestic refrigerant market soared, and the on-site operating rate is still not high, but the new energy vehicle industry has hot sales and increased demand. Overall, the refrigerant market is dominated by favorable factors, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid and chloroform is rising, which increases the cost of the refrigerant industry. The price of refrigerant R22 rose sharply, with an increase of 59%, and the market focus shifted significantly. The quotation of R22 at the end of the month was about 26000-28000 yuan / ton. The domestic R134a price soared by more than 78%. During this period, it exceeded the threshold of 50000 yuan, and some enterprises closed their plates and stopped reporting to see the market reflection. At the same time, due to power restriction in some places, the operating rate of refrigerant manufacturers further declined, and the supply side helped R13 prices soar. The merchants in the field were unwilling to sell at a low price. The downstream refrigerant industry was good, and the fluorite price in the field rose. With the decrease of temperature, domestic fluorite manufacturers gradually shut down their units, and the operation of mines and flotation in the yard declined, which supported the fluorite price to a certain extent. In addition, the refrigerant export is still subject to certain restrictions, and the overseas economic recovery is slow, which has cooled the domestic refrigerant industry. However, due to the tight supply of goods in the fluorite field, the market price remains high, and the domestic fluorite price mainly remained high from November to December.

Overall, the price trend of fluorite market will rise in 2021, and the price trend of various products in the fluorine chemical industry will increase differently. The price trend of hydrofluoric acid Market downstream of fluorite in 2021 is as follows:

It can be clearly seen from the correlation trend chart of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid that the two trends are highly correlated. In 2021, the market prices of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid increased to varying degrees, the domestic refrigerant industry improved, and the market of fluorochemical raw materials increased.

It can be clearly seen from the industrial chain trend chart that the price of fluorite industrial chain has increased in 2021, and the market of fluorine chemical industry has improved. However, on the whole, the price of fluorite fluctuates little, with an annual increase of 5.03%.

Chen Ling, a fluorite analyst at business society, believes that the price of fluorite will rise in 2021. From the perspective of fluorite market supply, domestic environmental protection will not be reduced, and some domestic fluorite manufacturers will still be unable to operate normally. The supply of domestic fluorite market will be limited, so the price of fluorite will be supported to some extent. However, with the increase of fluorite import, the price of imported fluorite is low, It will continue to impact the domestic fluorite market price, and the amplitude of domestic fluorite price will be limited to a certain extent. Therefore, considering the whole year of 2022, the maximum price of fluorite in the market will not exceed 3100 yuan / ton. Affected by the strengthening of domestic environmental protection, the minimum price of fluorite will also remain above 2500 yuan / ton in 2022.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data monitoring of business society, the mainstream price of styrene in China fell first and then rose this week. On Monday (December 20), the price of sample enterprises of business society was 8100.00 yuan / ton, and on Friday (December 24), the price of sample enterprises was 8125.00 tons, an increase of 0.31%. The price increased by 23.73% over the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of styrene fell first and then rose this week. On December 20, East China styrene closed at about 8050-8100 yuan / ton. On December 24, it was 8050-8200 yuan / ton, up by about 100 yuan / ton. The above is the tank export price of Zhangjiagang. On December 20, South China styrene closed at 8300-8350 yuan / ton. On December 24, it was 8250-8300 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton. The delivery price of the above factories. Generally speaking, styrene showed a decline first and then rise this week.

In terms of raw materials, crude oil rebounded after falling during the week, and the macro performance was acceptable. In terms of pure benzene, the price of pure benzene fell first and then rebounded, following the trend of styrene. As of Friday (December 24), the mainstream quotation of pure benzene was 6630.00 yuan / ton, down 10 yuan / ton from 6620.00 yuan / ton on Monday (December 20), a decrease of 0.15%. The port inventory of pure benzene continued to rise this week, the market was cautious about the future market, and the overall trading was light. The price of pure benzene mainly fluctuated with the rise and fall of crude oil and styrene. In terms of operating rate, the operating load rate of styrene this week was 76.38%, down 1.05 percentage points from last week. There was no new shutdown this week. Three restart units were added, namely Yanchang refining and chemical, Baling Petrochemical and Shandong Yuhuang. Seven units were still in shutdown. The overall capacity was slightly lower than that of last week, and the wharf inventory showed obvious destocking due to the increase of pick-up. The output of styrene this week is 232500 tons, and the output next week is estimated to be 249600 tons.

Downstream, the downstream price of styrene fell as a whole this week. In the PS market, as of Friday (December 24), the mainstream ex factory quotation of PS in East China was 10100.00 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with Monday. This week, the operating rate of PS industry was 79.50%, with a month on month increase of 1.32% and a year-on-year increase of 13.23%. CITIC Guoan increased to 5 penetration and 2 modification, the load of Yuhuang and Lanhua plant increased, and one 100000 ton production line of Ningbo Liwan has been produced. During the week, the market had a phased large volume, the overall transaction situation was lower than that of last week, and the inventory also increased slightly.

EPS market, EPS market callback and consolidation this week. As of Friday (December 24), the mainstream ex factory quotation of EPS in East China was 9825.00 yuan / ton, down 175 yuan / ton or 1.75% from 10000.00 yuan / ton on Monday (December 20). Benzene, pure benzene and styrene fell slightly. In addition, due to insufficient follow-up of terminal demand, most operators were cautious, the on-site supply circulation was slow, EPS sales were under pressure, and the price fell slightly.

The market price of ABS continued to decline. As of Friday (December 24), the mainstream ex factory quotation of ABS in Zhejiang was 15150.00 yuan / ton, down 350 yuan / ton or 2.26% from 15500.00 yuan / ton on Monday (December 20). Domestic ABS terminal demand is general. Home appliance plants are expected to enter the holiday ahead of schedule this year. In addition, the operating load of petrochemical plants continues to be high, the supply does not decrease, and the bearish mood in the field is strong. Prices continue to fall this week.

3、 Later outlook

Pure benzene follows the price trend of styrene, and the cost of styrene has not changed significantly. This week’s port inventory showed a significant destocking performance due to the increase of pick-up, so whether the wharf can arrive at the ship smoothly has become the main factor for the smooth progress of market pressure from the weekend to the beginning of next week. However, styrene has entered the stage of new plant investment or restart communication, and the spot demand in the off-season is weak. Superimposed with the bad futures such as the Northern Winter Olympic Games, the bad has been stored and the good has not been realized, It is expected that the styrene market may fluctuate and callback next week.

The spot tin market price (12.10-12.17) fluctuated and decreased this week. The average price in the domestic market was 295012.50 yuan / ton last weekend and 295012.50 yuan / ton this weekend, flat.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes of K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall. The figure above shows that the recent spot tin price has mainly fluctuated in a narrow range.

In the futures market, the market sentiment was affected by the decision of the Federal Reserve meeting on the interest rate in December this week, and Lunxi fell first and then rose this week. Shanghai tin rebounded rapidly at the weekend after a sharp drop in the middle of the week, with a cumulative weekly decline of 0.4%.

In terms of the spot market, it mainly fluctuated in a wide range this week. It fell steadily at the beginning of the week and rose sharply at the weekend. Although the rise and fall was 0, it fluctuated during the week. On the supply side, near the end of the year, the sound field of the enterprise is basically stable recently, the operating rate changes little, and the overall trading is flat compared with the previous period. Upstream supply: the overseas market is still greatly affected, the mine end supply is still tight, the impact of port closure on imported raw materials is still there, and the market supply is still tight. This week, the transaction situation in the domestic spot market is still not ideal, and the downstream just needs to purchase.

According to the price monitoring of business society, there are 8 commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 50th week of 2021 (12.13-12.17), and the top 3 commodities are magnesium (4.07%), aluminum (3.78%) and zinc (2.99%). A total of 8 commodities fell month on month, and the top 3 products were praseodymium oxide (- 1.13%), dysprosium oxide (- 1.02%) and praseodymium neodymium alloy (- 0.97%). The average rise and fall this week was 0.49%.

Basically, the tin market still maintains a weak balance between supply and demand, boosted by low inventories, and is expected to maintain a high oscillation trend in the future.