From December 10 to 12, with the support of Shanghai Stock Exchange, Zhengshang exchange, Dashang stock exchange and Huatai Securities, the “2021 derivatives market annual meeting” sponsored by Huatai futures was held in Hangzhou, Shanghai and Beijing. The meeting focused on wealth management characterized by futures derivatives based on major asset allocation, as well as black building materials, precious metals and nonferrous metals, energy and chemical industry, agricultural products, financial technology, etc Big theme.

On the afternoon of December 2022, Liu Xitai delivered a speech on the theme of “rising of energy and chemical industry: the leader of China chemical industry group” in the afternoon of December 2022.

Looking back on the development of the chemical industry in the past year, Liu Xi believes that the epidemic situation and low oil prices in the first half of the year accelerated the bottom of the profitability of the industry, and the profits of most sub industries declined. However, the profits of epidemic related products increased greatly, and the prosperity of most sub industries rebounded in the third quarter.

Looking ahead to the chemical industry next year, Liu Xi said that from the demand side, domestic demand for chemicals has been gradually restored since the second quarter, while the foreign demand needs to achieve a weak recovery since the third quarter, and there is a strong expectation of repair next year. “On the supply side, the overall capital expenditure has slowed down, while the expansion of production will be concentrated on leading enterprises, and environmental protection and production safety constraints will benefit the leading enterprises. With the gradual control of the epidemic situation, oil prices are expected to gradually return to the equilibrium level.”

For the long-term prospects of the chemical industry, Liu Xi believes that the shale gas revolution has promoted the increase in the supply of basic chemical raw materials (ethane, propane, etc.) and the decline in the price center, which provides a reliable development prospect for new refining and chemical units such as Ethane Dehydrogenation and PDH. “In the future, a large number of new large-scale refining and chemical integration enterprises will enter the Bureau, driving the olefin and other chemical production capacity into a new round of expansion cycle. The continuous entry of new advanced production capacity will lead to the reshuffle of the whole chemical industry, and some backward production capacity with short industrial chain process will be phased out in the future. ”

Overall, he believes that the overall prosperity of the chemical industry will enter an upward cycle in the future, which will be accompanied by a gradual rebound in demand and continuous optimization of the supply side. The whole industry is expected to develop towards integration and centralization.

Liu Xihua is expected to focus on a few downstream industries and focus on the recovery of downstream industries. It is expected that the company will continue to focus on upgrading its downstream products and focus on the lower end of the industry Long base, and is expected to drive the oil product market reform, and will benefit private gas station leading enterprises; second, the demand side has incremental segmentation industry, automobile exhaust purification materials, degradable plastics and other industries downstream demand is stimulated by the implementation of policies, there is a large space for growth, and product production and certification link has high barriers, some high-performance auxiliaries benefit from downstream consumption upgrading Driving demand growth and supply side contraction, it is expected to usher in an upward cycle; third, the demand of semiconductor chemicals, carbon fiber and other sub industries maintains growth, and the import substitution logic is still sustainable; fourth, in view of the longer-term prospect of the industry, for each sub industry, the leader of the sub industry will ultimately drive the industry through the optimization of stock and the expansion of new categories.

According to the data of business agency, as of December 11, the average price of domestic fuel oil 180CST was 3800.00 yuan / ton (including tax), a slight increase of 1.67% compared with the beginning of the week.

On December 11, the fuel oil commodity index was 76.96, flat with yesterday, down 33.60% from 115.91 (October 17, 2018), and 67.01% higher than 46.08, the lowest point on August 15, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

As of December 11, the price of 180 CST fuel oil was supported by the rise of domestic marine oil raw materials. According to the business agency, as of December 11, the self lifting low sulfur quotation of 180 CST fuel oil in Zhoushan area was 3750 yuan / ton; that of 120 CST fuel oil was 3850 yuan / ton; that of Shanghai area was 3850 yuan / ton; that of 120 CST fuel oil was 3950 yuan / ton.

This week, the international crude oil price fluctuates to rise, forms the support to the fuel oil price. WTI crude oil closed at $46.78/barrel on the 11th, up 1.12% from $46.26/barrel at the beginning of the week, according to the business news agency.

Singapore’s fuel oil inventory decreased and support for fuel oil increased. It is understood that Singapore Enterprise Development Council (ESG): in the week ending December 9, Singapore’s fuel oil storage fell by 3.39 million barrels to 22.361 million barrels, a three week low.

Aftermarket forecast: the energy analysts of the business agency believe that the raw material cost of fuel oil 180CST is supported, but the downstream demand is weak and the terminal transaction is limited. Generally speaking, it is expected that the fuel oil 180CST market will remain stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend of sodium metabisulfite in China

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of domestic sodium pyrosulfite continued to be weak and adjusted this week. The average price of industrial sodium pyrosulfite at the beginning of the week was 1700.00 yuan / ton, while the average price at the weekend was 1683.33 yuan / ton, a slight drop of 0.98%.

2、 Market analysis

In November, the price of domestic soda ash fell sharply, the processing cost of sodium metabisulfite continued to decline, and the overall wait-and-see attitude of downstream trade entities increased. In December, manufacturers successively lowered the ex factory price of sodium metabisulfite, and the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite was slightly weak. This week, the overall market performance of sodium metabisulfite market is average. The price range of industrial sodium pyrosulfite is 1400-1750 yuan / ton, and most of the prices are around 1600 yuan / ton. (the above prices all refer to the external quotation of domestic mainstream enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are not included in the scope temporarily. The prices are for reference only and have nothing to do with the final pricing of manufacturers. Please contact all manufacturers for details.).

In December, the price of domestic soda ash continued to fall, while the price of sulfur rose slightly. Overall, the raw material cost of sodium metabisulfite continued to decline, and the market price of sodium pyrosulfite in the future market was under pressure.

3、 Future forecast

Business agency analysts believe that the cost of raw materials continues to fall, domestic sodium metabisulfite market prices still have some room for reduction in the short term.

1、 Market price trend chart of paraformaldehyde

Polyoxymethylene price curve

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of paraformaldehyde was 4866 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 5000 yuan / ton at the weekend, with the quotation rising by 2.74%.

2、 Market analysis

Shandong aldehyde Chemical Industry Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 30000 tons of paraformaldehyde, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory, including tax, quoted 4800 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 9000 tons of paraformaldehyde, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory, including tax, quoted 5200 yuan / ton, which was 200 yuan / ton higher than last week. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 10000 tons of paraformaldehyde, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory, including tax, quoted 5000 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week. Manufacturer response paraformaldehyde shortage, market demand is OK, some manufacturers raised the price.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the raw material methanol in Shandong Province rose 0.46% this week.

3、 Future forecast

POM analysts believe: supported by upstream raw materials, paraformaldehyde may continue to rise.

After several months of rising market situation, the epoxy resin market has ushered in a downward trend. It is understood that the current liquid epoxy resin market offer to 28000-28500 yuan / ton, the major factories rose to 29000-30000 yuan / ton in the early stage, then the offer decreased, and the current factory guidance price dropped about 1000 yuan / ton.

Among them, Jiangsu Yangnong Jinhu three sets of liquid epoxy resin production capacity of 170000 tons / year were started at about 80%, epoxy resin E-51 quoted 28000 yuan / ton water purification factory; Nantong Xingchen epoxy resin production capacity of 160000 tons / year of the plant was in normal operation, liquid epoxy resin E-51 external quotation of 29000 yuan / t water factory, mainly delivery orders.

In the early stage, epoxy resin has been going up crazily, mainly from the downstream market orders continue, factory shipment has no pressure, recently the major factories have been down, after entering December, market uncertainty increased. In terms of raw materials, under the tight supply of bisphenol a market, it directly charged 20000 yuan. However, in view of the scarcity of supply in the market, most of the factories mainly supplied orders and regular customers, so the offer was suspended. However, the current raw materials are also at a record high. Due to the impact of the downstream product market downturn, uncertain factors in the later stage increased.

Another important raw material epichlorohydrin market also showed a downward trend, the current epichlorohydrin closed 11600-12000 yuan / ton.

Commodity index: on November 27, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 88.23, unchanged with yesterday, 17.64% lower than 107.13 (2019-05-08), and 6.44% higher than the lowest point of 82.89 on August 02, 2020. (Note:

cycle refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

Price quotation: according to the monitoring data, from November 20 to 27, 2020, the polyacrylamide in Henan Province was slightly increased. This week, the domestic mainstream quotation of polyacrylamide (PAM, cation, molecular weight: 12 million) was raised from 14300 yuan / ton to about 14400 yuan / ton, with an increase rate of only about 1%; however, in fact, the manufacturers restricted by acrylonitrile procurement cost this month delivered polyacrylamide The price increase range is about 500 yuan / ton. For manufacturers with sufficient supply, the price change is not so urgent; in the heating season, the price of acrylonitrile, which is added to environmental protection inspection and raw material, rises sharply, which leads to the price rise of polyacrylamide. The supply situation determines whether the price rises or not. However, the downstream demand plays a general role. However, due to the sharp increase of cost pressure, the price of polyacrylamide is still rising sharply Inevitably, the pressure is beginning to show up this week.

Industrial chain: upstream: acrylonitrile rose sharply this month. According to the business agency, at the end of October, the mainstream quotation of domestic acrylonitrile was 9300 yuan / ton. This month, the price of acrylonitrile was raised repeatedly, with a single increase of 400-500 yuan / ton, and the monthly increase of 2000-3000 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream is about 12250 yuan / ton, and this week the increase is as high as 1950 yuan / ton. Downstream: in the current winter, the number of downstream water treatment project construction enterprises is reduced, and the demand for raw materials is weak.

Industry: since 2020, the prosperity of environmental protection water treatment industry has not recovered significantly. During the period from January Spring Festival holiday to February 20, relevant enterprises in main production areas stopped production and delayed to resume work. After February 20, the manufacturers in the main production areas gradually returned to work and production. In March, logistics returned to normal, mainly consumed inventory. In April, the manufacturers survived normally, and the raw material cost was partly reduced and the demand was weak, which led to the high inventory of manufacturers. On May 6, the national high-speed recovery of charges, the price of acrylonitrile and other raw materials rose, the ex factory price of polyacrylamide did not change much, and there were more stocks; with the upstream propylene of acrylonitrile rising in the industrial chain relationship of “propylene PP melt blown cloth mask”, the production capacity of acrylonitrile manufacturers decreased this month, which directly led to the firm price of acrylonitrile. In July, the price of acrylonitrile was sharply reduced, and the cost of polyacrylamide was lowered. Some enterprises lowered the price of their products according to the trend, and then rebounded in the second half of the month. However, the prices of manufacturers did not change significantly. In fact, most manufacturers hoarded raw materials, and the cost of purchasing determined the price and cost. In August, acrylonitrile continued to rebound slightly, and then continued to stabilize. In September, it remained stable after a small shock, and the amplitude of the shock was insignificant, and the demand did not rise significantly. Although the prosperity of the industry increased in October, the price changes of different water treatment products were quite different. The ex factory price of polyaluminum chloride increased by 7% in September and October due to the rising prices of raw materials and fuels. Although the price of polyacrylamide raw materials also increased, the market price of polyaluminum chloride did not rise as much as that of polyaluminum chloride. In November, faced with the big influence factors of heating season this year, polyacrylamide manufacturers stopped production more, and this year faced a sharp rise in acrylonitrile, the downstream demand was weak, the upstream cost was high, the pressure of polyacrylamide manufacturers was large, and the price rise was inevitable.

Aftermarket forecast: according to the analysis of the business agency, the price of acrylonitrile, the raw material in the upstream, has risen sharply, and the pressure on the cost side has increased sharply, and the basic demand support is insufficient. At present, the domestic economic momentum is good, and the demand is greatly affected by the seasonality. Based on the above factors, we expect that the price of polyacrylamide will change with the change of acrylonitrile price in the near future, and the supply of polyacrylamide will also be affected when the manufacturer stops production until the end of December. The price of polyacrylamide is likely to rise, but the transaction will be affected due to the seasonal limitation of demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the sulfur production price in East China at the weekend was 956.67 yuan / ton, which was 0.70% higher than 950.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and 57.69% higher than that of last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the sulfur market in East China rose slightly. The inventory of refineries in various regions of China was low. Downstream factories and traders purchased on demand, and the shipment was smooth. The port ownership was centralized. The shippers had a positive attitude and had no intention to ship at low price. The market was organized and operated. Within the week, Sinopec’s quotation of solid sulfur in East China was increased by 20 yuan / ton, mainstream price was 940-1250 yuan / ton, liquid sulfur was increased by 20-40 yuan / ton, mainstream price was 890-1100 yuan / ton; the quotation of solid and liquid sulfur in Shandong area of Sinopec was stable, with quotations of 960-970 yuan / ton; that of Sinopec in North China was 860-880 yuan / ton, and that of liquid sulfur was 830-890 yuan / ton.

The market of phosphate fertilizer in the lower reaches is slightly flat. For the first ammonium fertilizer, the overall market price remains stable, while for the diammonium fertilizer, the market keeps stable operation. The quotation of some manufacturers rises slightly, while the price of winter storage fertilizer is pulled down and the price is on the high side. In terms of sulfuric acid, the domestic market performance is still differentiated. The price trend in Shandong remains stable. The quotation of mainstream manufacturers is stable, the inventory of manufacturers is small, and the downstream demand is strong. The sulfuric acid market is expected to rise slightly in the future.

3、 Future forecast

Aftermarket forecast: according to the sulfur analysts of business club, the domestic sulfur market is stable and upward, the domestic refinery inventory remains low, the downstream demand is stable, and the market performance is good. It is expected that the short-term sulfur market will be sorted and operated.

1、 Price trend of sodium metabisulfite in China

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic sodium metabisulfite price remained stable this week, with an average price of 1750.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 1750.00 yuan / ton at the weekend, with a rise and fall range of 0.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite continued to move forward steadily, with the market price range of industrial sodium pyrosulfite ranging from 1650 to 1800 yuan / ton, and most of the prices were concentrated in 1700-1750 yuan / ton. The production of the enterprise is stable, and the inventory is maintained at about 30%. The enterprise mainly completes the orders of old customers, but the increase of new orders is limited. (the above prices all refer to the external quotation of domestic mainstream enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are not included in the scope temporarily. The prices are for reference only and have nothing to do with the final pricing of manufacturers. Please contact all manufacturers for details.).

Since the beginning of November, the price of domestic soda ash has fallen sharply by 14.29%, the price of sulfur has increased slightly by 1.77%, the raw material cost of sodium metabisulfite has continued to fall, and the market price of sodium pyrosulfite will be adjusted under pressure.

3、 Future forecast

Business agency analysts believe that soda ash prices continue to fall, sodium metabisulfite raw material costs slightly lower, domestic sodium metabisulfite market price will be adjusted in December.

1、 Market price trend chart of paraformaldehyde

Polyoxymethylene price curve

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of paraformaldehyde was 4700 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 4833 yuan / ton at the weekend, with the quotation rising by 2.84%.

2、 Market analysis

Shandong aldehyde Chemical Industry Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 30000 tons of paraformaldehyde, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory, including tax, quoted 4800 yuan / ton, an increase of 100 yuan / ton compared with last week. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 9000 tons of paraformaldehyde, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory, including tax, quoted 4700-4800 yuan / ton, which was 100-200 yuan / ton higher than last week. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 10000 tons of paraformaldehyde, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory, including tax, quoted 5000 yuan / ton, which was 200 yuan / ton higher than last week. The supply of paraformaldehyde products is tight and the market demand is good, which supports the price rise.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, at the beginning of this week, the average price of methanol producers in Shandong was 2122 yuan / ton, which was 2117 yuan / ton at the end of this week, down 0.24%. In early November, the average price of methanol was 1882 yuan / ton, which was 2117 yuan / ton on November 20, up 12.48%.

3、 Future forecast

POM analysts believe: downstream goods are better, paraformaldehyde may rise.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate remained high this week. As of the end of the week, the domestic market price of ammonium nitrate was 2900 yuan / ton, which was equal to 2900 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 26.09%. On November 20, the commodity index of ammonium nitrate was 152.63, which was the same as yesterday, reaching a record high in the cycle, up 97.27% from the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

This week, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market maintained a high level. Domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers started operation normally, and the supply of ammonium nitrate in the field was tight. Some manufacturers reported that the situation of goods taking was improved, and the price trend of manufacturers remained high. Recently, the supply of on-site goods was tight, the transportation was normal, and the market price of ammonium nitrate remained high. Recently, the shipment market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal, downstream procurement is on demand, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers start normal operation, and some manufacturers’ prices have increased slightly. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiation in Shaanxi is 2600-2800 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 2500-2600 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei is 3000-3300 yuan / ton.

This week, the domestic price of concentrated nitric acid rose, with the weekend price of 1800 yuan / ton, which rose by 11.34%, Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu chemical quoted 1900 yuan / ton, Anhui Jinhe quoted 1900 yuan / ton, Shandong helitai quoted 1900 yuan / ton. The quotation of Wenshui synthetic chemical industry is 1530 yuan / ton. In recent years, the domestic maintenance units have been running normally, the supply of concentrated nitric acid market is normal, and the on-site goods taking situation has improved. The price trend of nitric acid in the field has risen sharply. The high price of nitric acid is a good support for the market of ammonium nitrate, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate market remains high.

The price of upstream liquid ammonia rose this week, with the weekend price of 3050 yuan / ton, up 3.04% compared with 2960 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. The liquid ammonia plant started normal operation, the spot supply was slightly tight, and the price trend of liquid ammonia market rose sharply. From the basic point of view, the supply and demand of liquid ammonia market is mainly balanced, and some manufacturers’ devices are running stably. It is expected that the ammonia supply will be balanced in the short term. Therefore, it is expected that the price trend of domestic liquid ammonia market will rise in the near future. Due to the production restriction in some regions such as Shanxi, the operating rate will drop, and the supply will bring some support. From the downstream point of view, in the current off-season of agricultural fertilizer, the terminal does not take delivery of goods, and there is no market in many places, which makes the rising trend of liquid ammonia difficult to maintain. The upstream prices have risen this week, and the market price trend of ammonium nitrate remains high.

Recently, the demand of the downstream civil explosive industry is normal, and the production and sales of nitro compound fertilizer are normal, and the price trend of raw material market is rising. However, the spot supply of ammonium nitrate is generally, which has a certain positive support for the ammonium nitrate Market. The ammonium nitrate analysts of the business community believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate may maintain a high level in the future.