1. Press conference of “opinions of the Ministry of natural resources on several issues of promoting the reform of mineral resources management” held

On January 9, 2020, the Ministry of natural resources of the people’s Republic of China held a press conference on “opinions of the Ministry of natural resources on several issues of promoting the reform of mineral resources management”, and announced at the conference that China will fully open the oil and gas exploration and exploitation market, and allow famous enterprises, foreign-funded enterprises and other social capitals to enter the field of oil and gas exploration and development.

2. New edition of central pricing catalogue released

On March 16, 2020, the national development and Reform Commission issued Order No. 31, announcing the new central pricing catalogue, which will be implemented on May 1, 2020. The new version of the central pricing catalogue highlights the direction of pricing supervision in monopoly links and market-oriented reform in competitive links, and limits the scope of government pricing to important public utilities, public welfare services and network-based natural monopoly links. For example, according to the reform idea of “opening both ends and controlling the middle”, the price of electricity and natural gas will be changed to “transmission and distribution” and “natural gas” to “oil and gas pipeline transportation”.

3. Energy Law (Draft) released

On April 10, the State Energy Administration issued the announcement on the public solicitation of opinions on the energy law of the people’s Republic of China (Draft), which is widely solicited by the society. The main contents of the energy law (Draft for comments) are as follows: pay equal attention to the development of oil and natural gas on land and at sea, speed up the development of offshore oil and gas fields; take measures to actively and rationally develop natural gas, optimize the utilization structure of natural gas, and increase the proportion of natural gas in primary energy consumption; improve and fair access to power grid, oil and gas pipeline network and other energy transmission network facilities Mechanism, according to law to meet the conditions of energy production, marketing enterprises and other market entities fair, non discriminatory opening. %

4. Implementation Opinions on accelerating the construction of natural gas reserve capacity printed and distributed

On April 14, the national development and Reform Commission and other five ministries and commissions issued the “Implementation Opinions on accelerating the construction of natural gas reserve capacity”. The document pointed out that the overall planning and layout will be strengthened, the annual list of major projects for the construction of gas storage facilities will be formulated and issued, and the provincial special plans for the construction of gas storage facilities will be prepared and issued by all provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities), and the list of gas storage facilities construction projects in the region will be put forward. The task of gas storage of urban gas enterprises is included in the provincial special planning, and the gas storage facilities for supplying cities are built.

5. “2020 energy work guidance” notice issued

On June 22, the State Energy Administration issued a notice on the guiding opinions on energy work in 2020 (hereinafter referred to as the Guiding Opinions). According to the opinions, the main targets for 2020 are predicted to be 193 million tons of oil, 181 billion cubic meters of natural gas and 900 million kilowatts of non fossil power generation. It is required to focus on expanding the four major oil and gas production bases, and promote the rapid development of conventional natural gas production, shale gas and coalbed methane. And start the construction of biogas projects, research and increase policy support to promote the development of biogas industrialization. Establish and improve the comprehensive information monitoring system of the national refining industry, and strive to resolve the risk of refining overcapacity.

6. Notice on strengthening the price supervision of natural gas transmission and distribution issued

On July 3, the national development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the State Administration of Market Supervision issued the notice on strengthening the supervision of natural gas transmission and distribution prices (hereinafter referred to as the notice), which pointed out that the provincial pipeline transportation prices and urban gas distribution prices should be set reasonably. The price of natural gas transmission and distribution is determined according to the principle of “permitted cost + reasonable income”. According to the guidance on strengthening the supervision of gas distribution price, all localities should formulate gas distribution price management measures and verify the independent gas distribution price. The permitted rate of return should be no more than 7%, and the local government can appropriately reduce it in combination with the actual situation. Encourage all localities to explore the establishment of incentive mechanism to share the interests of pipeline enterprises and users, encourage enterprises to improve operating efficiency and further reduce costs.

7. Requirements for safe transportation of movable LNG tanks on board (Trial)

On July 2, 2020, the requirements for safe transportation of movable LNG tanks on board (Trial Implementation) was officially issued. The whole ship transportation of LNG movable tanks is a new type of business. On the basis of summing up the experience of the pilot work in the early stage, the relevant departments of the Ministry of transport organized the research and drafting of the relevant requirements for the safe transportation of the whole ship carrying liquefied natural gas (LNG) movable tanks. After the revision and improvement, it was officially released after the deliberation of the ministerial meeting.

8. White paper on China’s energy development in the new era released

On December 21, the Information Office of the State Council issued the white paper “China’s energy development in the new era”. The white paper said that China has unswervingly promoted the energy revolution, major changes have taken place in the way of energy production and utilization, and historic achievements have been made in energy development. The structure of energy production and consumption has been continuously optimized, the efficiency of energy utilization has been significantly improved, the conditions for energy use in production and living have been significantly improved, and the ability of energy security has been continuously enhanced, which has provided important support for serving high-quality economic development, winning the battle against poverty, and building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, affected by the poor demand of the downstream market, the domestic acetic acid market continued to decline. As of January 11, Shandong area was 3850-3950 yuan / ton, Jiangsu area was 3900-4000 yuan / ton, Zhejiang area was 4000-4100 yuan / ton, Henan area was 3500-3550 yuan / ton, Hebei area was 3900-4000 yuan / ton, northwest area was 3350-3500 yuan / ton, South China area was 3850-3950 yuan / ton/ Tons, down 9.54% from the beginning of the month.

Unit capacity (10000 tons / year) unit output (tons / day)

Yankuang Cathay 110 3000

Hualu Hengsheng 50 1400

Yangtze BP 50-1300

Jiangsu Sopu ﹣ 120 ﹣ 3600

Celanese 120 2000

Jiantao, Hebei Province

Tianjin Bohua company

Henan Shunda 40 1400

Henan Longyu ﹣ 50 ﹣ 1500

Henan Yima 25 parking

Shaanxi Yanchang 40 normal production

Shanghai Huayi 70-1800

Anhui Huayi 50 1300

Dalian Hengli 35 1300

After new year’s day, the domestic acetic acid market continued to decline. Due to the overall weak demand of the downstream market, the acetic acid market inventory continues to accumulate, and the enterprises continue to reduce the quotation under the pressure of the warehouse. However, there are many sporadic small orders in the downstream market. In addition to the recent rebound of the epidemic in North China, the market purchasing is cautious, and the downward trend of the market is difficult to ease.

The domestic methanol market performed generally, and the prices of the mainland and ports declined. The overall situation of the mainland has declined due to the shrinking olefin procurement in Northwest China and the weak demand in Hebei and Shandong. The blockade of some road sections has affected the flow of goods in some areas of Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi and Shanxi, but the extent of the impact is uncertain. At present, it is about 2270 yuan / ton in Shandong. On the downstream side, the acetate Market is weak, and the overall performance of the manufacturers’ devices is stable. Due to the traditional off-season, the overall turnover of the market is limited, and the acetate Market is weak in a short period of time.

Acetic acid analysts of business society believe that the demand for acetic acid in the downstream market is weak after entering the off-season. After the enterprises with short-term maintenance and stoppage resume production, the situation of oversupply in the market will continue to intensify, and it is difficult to effectively alleviate in a short time. It is expected that the weak operation of acetic acid Market in the near future.

Recently, the domestic butadiene market continued to be weak. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the domestic butadiene market price was 7751 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and 7358 yuan / ton at the end of the week. The price fell by 5.06% in the week, 25.17% month on month, and 11.16% year on year.

The domestic butadiene market is weak and downward. With the gradual release of production after the restart of some domestic units, the market supply side increases significantly, the external price continues to decline and the supply pressure still exists. After the festival, the butadiene market is weak and downward obviously due to the drag of supply side. At the beginning of the week, the supply price of Sinopec, the main producer, continued to decline. Although some of the downstream areas in the North digested the spot goods, under the influence of abundant supply and short market expectation in the later stage, the bearish atmosphere of the market continued to spread in the middle of the week, and some of the markets were on the lookout. From time to time, news of low prices came out, further suppressing the market.

In terms of enterprises, Sinopec’s butadiene price was reduced by 500 yuan / ton in the supply cycle, and 7500 yuan / ton was implemented since January 5; North Huajin’s online bidding for export on Monday and Thursday showed that the total trading volume in the week was 130 tons, and the base price of bidding was 7110 yuan / ton as of January 7; Shenhua Ningmei’s normal export price was 6850 yuan / ton as of January 7, with a month on month decrease of 100% At the end of December, the 100000 t / a oxidative dehydrogenation unit of Jiangsu sierpang was restarted, and now it is in stable operation, and some of them are exported from stock; the 120000 T / a extraction unit of Bora Petrochemical is in stable operation, and the 104 t supply was sold through online auction on January 4, with the transaction price at 7433 yuan / T.

The external supply price of butadiene of main production enterprises is as follows:

Enterprise, price (yuan / ton), plant dynamic

The butadiene plant of Liaoyang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. with a capacity of 73.203 million tons / year has been in stable operation, and a small amount of goods are exported

Dalian Hengli 7160 normal export

Liaotong Chemical Co., Ltd

Fushun Petrochemical Co., Ltd. / self use and interaction of goods, no export plan for the time being

Inner Mongolia Jiutai 710007000t / a butadiene oxidative dehydrogenation unit operates normally

External market: as of the close on January 7, the external price of butadiene in Asia fell: FOB Korea closed at 955-965 US dollars / ton, down 40 US dollars / ton; CFR China closed at 935-945 US dollars / ton, down 10 US dollars / ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe was stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at 895-905 USD / ton; FD closed at 765-775 EUR / ton in northwest Europe.

In the future, under the production release of some domestic units and the restart expectation of South Korean units, the merchants’ expectation of the supply side of butadiene market in the later period is short. Although the external news such as Tianjiao futures and crude oil has a certain boost, and the start-up of synthetic rubber unit is acceptable, the supply side of butadiene market is under obvious pressure, and the market continues to fall, leading to the wait-and-see decline of downstream, and there is no obvious sudden change at the moment Under the good news, business community butadiene analysts expect that the downward trend of domestic butadiene market in the short term is difficult to change.

Just stepping into 2021, propane rose broadly to welcome a “good start”. The average price of propane increased by RMB 41550 yuan / ton on December 26, compared with the average price on December 16. As of January 5, the market prices of propane in China are as follows:

Regional specifications January 5

Propane in East China,% (V / V) not less than: 95 4650-4750 yuan / ton

In North China,% (V / V) is not less than 95.4750-4950 yuan / ton

In Shandong Province,% (V / V) propane is not less than 95 4700-4900 yuan / ton

In South China,% (V / V) is not less than: 95 4550-5430 yuan / ton

Propane in Central China,% (V / V) not less than: 95 4500-5056 yuan / ton

In Northeast China,% (V / V) is not less than: 95 4850-4950 yuan / ton

On December 31, with the introduction of Saudi Aramco’s CP price in January, propane butane soared, bringing obvious benefits to the market. During the holidays, refineries continuously increased the ex factory prices in a wide range, among which the northern market rose significantly, with the increase range of 450-700 yuan / ton during the holidays. The southern market also increased, with a smaller range than the northern market. After the end of the holiday, the market still maintained a rising trend and the range of price increase narrowed. At present, the price is pushing up too fast, and the lower reaches are against the high price. The enthusiasm for entering the market is general, but there is still demand for replenishment. The mentality of manufacturers is mainly firm.

In January, Saudi Aramco CP announced that there were all increases in propane and butane. Propane was US $550 / T, up US $100 / T from last month; butane was US $530 / T, up US $70 / T from last month.

At present, the high cost of imported gas gives obvious support to the market, and affected by seasonal factors, the downstream inventory and replenishment is just needed, the market transaction atmosphere is good, the inventory of manufacturers is controllable, and the mentality is firm. However, the weakness of international oil prices has brought some constraints to the market, and the increase has narrowed after the festival. At present, the price has risen to a relatively high level. It is expected that the increase will be limited in the short term, or it will be stable.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the price of TDI in East China decreased slightly in December. At the beginning of the month, the average price of TDI was 12700.00 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average price of TDI was 12666.67 yuan / ton, with an overall decrease of 0.26% in the month and an increase of 10.47% over the same period last year.

2、 Market quotation

This month, the domestic TDI market price was stable as a whole. In the middle of December, the price trend changed slightly. The market quotation in East China rose first and then fell, and the overall price fluctuation was small. In the early stage, the price rose because of the factory’s no pressure on inventory. After the weekly settlement price was announced, the price was higher than the market expectation, and the mentality of the industry was entangled, which led to the dealer’s quotation rising. In the late stage, the atmosphere in the market was cold and the factory’s price was low The weekly policy is stable, the demand of downstream is weakening, the quotation of dealers is stable, and some prices are down. The BASF plant in Shanghai was temporarily shut down due to failure. The supply and demand in the plant tended to be balanced, and the market was dominated by a small amount of rigid demand. The atmosphere in the plant was quiet. As of March 31, the market price of domestic goods in East China was 12200-12500 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods was 12500-13000 yuan / ton.

The price of domestic TDI upstream nitric acid rose sharply this month, with an increase of 13.89% within the month. By the end of the month, the average price of domestic production was 2050 yuan / ton, the market demand was weak and stable, the transaction was ok, and the market was reorganized later. The upstream toluene market was reorganized and operated, with high port inventory and general downstream demand. Affected by the uncertainty of crude oil market, the trend of toluene was weak and the market transaction was not active The toluene market is expected to be weak in the future.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of the Data Engineer of the business society: at present, the TDI market is in a stalemate, the new year’s Day holiday is approaching, the supplier’s mentality is stable, the downstream just needs to purchase, and the offer of the industry is stable. It is expected that the TDI market will temporarily run stably in the later period, and pay attention to the policy guidance of the factory.

28-29, early this week, the domestic liquid ammonia market basically ended last week’s rise, Hebei region, Shandong region, the beginning of the week prices were stable, according to the business community monitoring, Shandong region, the market mainstream offer 3000-3200 yuan / ton.

The price of liquid ammonia in Shandong Province was mainly stable. There was a reaction from large factories last Sunday. Due to a slight increase in inventory, the price was slightly reduced by 50 yuan / ton. The ammonia quantity in Shandong Province was basically in a state of supply and demand balance, which still had some support for the price. In the downstream, the demand for agricultural fertilizer is slightly insufficient in the off-season, which is also the main reason why the price of liquid ammonia has not kept rising.

Other regions are mainly stable, while Hebei follows closely the price trend of Shandong. At the beginning of the week, the price of liquid ammonia also stopped rising. At present, the price is running smoothly, and the volume of liquid ammonia in this region has not changed. However, due to the centralized maintenance of two large manufacturers in Northeast China, Hebei has undertaken some orders from Northeast China, which has a little support for the price. At present, the price of liquid ammonia is in the range of 3100-3250 yuan / ton.

In the future, the business community believes that this week, the liquid ammonia market may be slightly adjusted. On the one hand, with the maintenance of enterprises’ devices, the market inventory pressure has also been eased, which also neutralizes the bad news of the low season downstream and the shrinking purchasing volume. On the other hand, local production restriction in the northern region has also formed a certain support for prices, and the imbalance between supply and demand may continue to be maintained.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business news agency’s block list, the domestic toluene price rose first and then fell this week, which was lower than that of last week. On December 20, the price of toluene was 3850 yuan / ton; on this Sunday (December 27), the price was 3770 yuan / ton, down 80 yuan / ton or 2.08% compared with last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

Within the week, Sinopec’s Toluene in North China, South China and central China was reduced by 100 yuan / ton, while that in East China was reduced by 200 yuan / ton. During the week, crude oil fell due to bad news, which led to the weakness of toluene external market, while the domestic toluene market fell. This week, the price of TDI and PX fell. Holders of toluene are reluctant to sell at low prices and watch the price trend of crude oil and refined oil.

In terms of crude oil, a more infectious new crown mutant virus was found in the UK last weekend. Most cities in the UK implemented strict City closure measures. The market worried that the demand for crude oil would be frustrated again, and crude oil fell due to bad news. Friday is the Christmas holiday, crude oil information is not available. Compared with December 18, Brent fell $1.575/barrel, or 3.03%; WTI fell $1.01/barrel, or 2.05%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 24.52% and WTI decreased by 20.64%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of this week was lower than that of last week, and the price of domestic goods was 12666.67 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton or 0.78% compared with that of last week. At present, the TDI market is weak, the atmosphere in the market is cold, the downstream inquiry enthusiasm is not high, and the future market is weak.

In the PX market, the domestic PX price was stable this week, and the listed price of Sinopec’s enterprises was about 4300 yuan / ton, down 35.82% year on year. PX market based on demand procurement, price stability. As of December 24, the closing prices of p-xylene market in Asia were US $601-591 / T FOB Korea and US $619-621 / T CFR China.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of us oil wells and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of the industrial chain, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, and the progress of the fiscal stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and China and the United States, the progress of new crown vaccine research and development, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

Friday is Christmas, crude oil market demand is expected to decline, coupled with uncertainty in the crude oil market, toluene is expected to be weak next week. The downstream demand is weak, and the toluene price has a big resistance to break through the upward trend, focusing on the trend of gasoline price.

On December 21, the Information Office of the State Council released the white paper “China’s energy development in the new era” and held a press conference to introduce the relevant information. The white paper points out that China’s energy development has made historic achievements in the new era, which provides important support for serving high-quality economic development, winning the battle against poverty and building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way.

Remarkable achievements in energy revolution

The white paper points out that China has unswervingly promoted the energy revolution, made major changes in the way of energy production and utilization, and made historic achievements in energy development. The energy production and consumption structure has been continuously optimized, the energy utilization efficiency has been significantly improved, the energy consumption conditions for production and living have been significantly improved, and the energy security guarantee ability has been continuously enhanced, which has provided important support for serving the high-quality development of the economy, winning the battle of poverty alleviation and building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way.

China’s energy policy presents the following new features: first, it adheres to the people’s center, always puts people’s energy use in the first place, and strengthens energy universal services; second, it adheres to the clean and low-carbon orientation, speeds up the green and low-carbon transformation of energy, and increases the proportion of clean energy and non fossil energy consumption; third, it adheres to the core position of innovation, speeds up the pace of independent innovation of energy science and technology, and promotes energy The fourth is to promote development through reform, build a high standard energy market system, and constantly release market vitality; fifth, adhere to the construction of a community of shared future for mankind, deepen global energy governance cooperation, accelerate the green and low-carbon transformation of global energy, and build a clean and beautiful world.

In the new era, China’s energy development has made historic achievements. Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, great changes have taken place in China’s energy production and utilization mode, basically forming a multi wheel driven stable energy supply system, comprehensively promoting energy conservation, and supporting an average annual growth of 7% of the national economy with an average annual growth of 2.8% in energy consumption. Clean energy accounted for 23.4% of the total energy consumption, an increase of 8.9% over 2012. The cumulative installed capacity of hydropower, wind power and solar power generation ranked first in the world. A complete industrial chain of clean energy equipment manufacturing has been established to support the development and utilization of clean energy. China’s carbon emission intensity in 2019 is 48.1% lower than that in 2005, and the target of 40% – 45% reduction in carbon emission intensity proposed in 2015 is achieved ahead of schedule.

“We hope that through the release of this white paper, we can deeply understand China’s hard work in promoting the green and low-carbon transformation of energy and its positive contribution to addressing global climate change and promoting sustainable energy development.” Zhang Jianhua, director of the state energy administration, said.

Power supply is generally stable and orderly

In winter, how to balance power supply and energy conservation and emission reduction?

Zhao Chenxin, Secretary General of the national development and Reform Commission, said that recently, due to the high-speed growth of industrial production and the superposition of low-temperature and cold current, the demand for electric power has exceeded expectations, and the demand has shown rapid growth. In particular, the growth rate of electricity demand in Hunan Province and Jiangxi Province in December ranked first in the country.

Among them, in the first ten days of December, Hunan’s maximum power load was more than 1 million kilowatts higher than the previous peak load; in the first ten days of December in Jiangxi Province, the power generation and consumption increased by 18.4% year on year, and the maximum power consumption load reached 26.31 million kilowatts.

“The peak load in summer is often the largest, and this situation in Jiangxi is 500-600000 kilowatts higher than the historical maximum load in summer. Both Hunan and Jiangxi have created high points. ” According to Zhao Chenxin, Zhejiang Province also saw an increase in electricity demand. In the first ten days of December, power generation and consumption increased by 9.2% year-on-year, ranking first in eastern provinces.

He pointed out that Hunan, Jiangxi and other provinces have been key areas of winter security over the years due to the long distance of coal transportation and the limitation of external power receiving capacity. Recently, in view of the power shortage in these provinces, the local government has taken timely and orderly measures to reduce the power consumption of a division of labor commercial enterprises in a planned way, which ensures the balance of power supply and demand and the power demand of residents, and ensures the overall stable operation of power.

“Up to now, the overall power supply has been stable and orderly, and the power consumption of residents has not been affected.” Zhao Chenxin said that in the face of the rapid growth of electricity demand since the beginning of winter, the national development and Reform Commission, the state energy administration, together with relevant departments and power enterprises, actively take measures to ensure the power demand and ensure the overall stable and orderly power supply.

Actively participate in global energy governance

A number of major energy cooperation projects have been implemented, multilateral and bilateral mechanisms for energy cooperation have been constantly improved, and energy policy and technology exchanges have become increasingly frequent China has one belt, one road initiative, and China’s energy cooperation has achieved fruitful results.

The white paper proposes that the international community should make joint efforts to promote the green and low-carbon transformation of energy, consolidate multilateral cooperation in the field of energy, promote international energy trade and investment, promote energy accessibility in underdeveloped areas, promote sustainable global energy development, and maintain global energy security.

China has become the largest energy producer and consumer in the world. Zhang Jianhua said that China one belt, one road, energy cooperation and international cooperation will be developed with high quality in the face of the new situation and new challenges.

On the one hand, actively participate in global energy governance cooperation. China will uphold the one belt, one road, energy partnership and promote mutually beneficial cooperation in energy and energy, and continue to strengthen cooperation with multilateral mechanisms of international organizations and actively carry out multilateral energy cooperation and exchanges.

On the other hand, we should promote energy cooperation projects with high quality. China will deeply participate in the global energy transformation and reform, study and promote cooperation with relevant countries in nuclear power, wind power, photovoltaic, smart grid, smart energy, interconnection and other aspects, study policies combining green energy and green finance, and promote bilateral and multilateral cooperation projects.

According to the data from the large list of business associations, the domestic adipic acid market was basically stable last week (12.14-18), with little fluctuation in the market. According to the monitoring, the sample rose slightly, with a range of 0.49%. Many regions showed mixed ups and downs. And most of the dealers’ quotations maintain a stable trend, East China, South China and other regions gradually stop rising. According to the monitoring of business agency, the current quotation range of adipic acid is 8200-8500 yuan / ton.

In terms of market supply, the operating rate of adipic acid manufacturers remained stable in the middle of December, about 80%. The market supply of adipic acid was relatively sufficient, and the inventory pressure of manufacturers was acceptable. Dealers usually take delivery of goods normally. At present, there are signs that the manufacturers’ inventory is gradually excessive to the dealers, and the dealers are also showing signs of accumulation of high prices. It is not ruled out that the inventory situation will be cleared by making profits due to the overstocking of inventory in the later stage.

Market trend of pure benzene

As shown in the above chart, the crude oil price was kept at a high level last week, but the operating cost of adipic acid was kept at a high level in May, as shown in the above chart The price of pure benzene will be under pressure.

PA66 market trend chart

In terms of downstream demand, the terminal performance is rigid and stable, the polyurethane procurement peak is gradually coming to an end, and the market demand slightly retreats. In December, the PA66 market has gradually cooled down, and the price has dropped. So far, according to the data of the business agency, the decline in December is 3.02%. Later, with the Festival approaching, the market operating rate may further decline, which does not rule out the possibility of price downward again.

In the later stage, according to the business community, the market of adipic acid is basically coming to an end, and the later price may be subject to the suppression of demand without major action. However, at present, it is in the middle of winter, and the downstream operating rate may decline. At present, the cost of pure benzene also shows signs of decline. The downstream PA66 has also opened a downward channel. It is expected that adipic acid will maintain a high level in the near future and continue to rise Sex is not big, also do not rule out the possibility of falling back.

Although the market expects the international oil price to rise, there is a certain support for the price of chemical products. However, due to the lack of maintenance of global styrene units and the profit of styrene production is still acceptable, the global supply is expected to increase in the first quarter of next year, and the main downstream PS, EPS, ABS and UPR of styrene are facing load drop, so the styrene price is facing certain downward pressure.

Crude oil market expected to be destocked

OPEC + will increase production by 500000 B / D from January 2021, and will hold monthly meetings from January next year to “assess market conditions and decide on further production adjustments for the next month, with monthly production adjustments no more than 500000 B / D”. According to the EIA forecast of the US Energy Agency in December, the global crude oil market as a whole will be slightly de stocked in 2021, which is expected to be 1.8 million barrels / day, with a large supply gap in the first quarter of this year. According to the evaluation of the Bloomberg News Agency, the results of the OPEC + meeting will make the crude oil market in the state of de stocking until the first quarter of next year.

At present, mainstream investment banks are more optimistic about the future oil price rise space. According to the analysis of relevant institutions, the average cost of tight oil in the United States is about US $44 / barrel, while the cost of Russian crude oil is $53 / barrel. As Russia and other countries mainly refer to Brent crude oil, if Brent rises to more than $55 / barrel, basically all other crude oil costs can be covered except oil sand. According to the evaluation of major mainstream investment banks on crude oil price in 2021, Goldman Sachs sees it at $65 /If Brent oil price rises to $53-55 / barrel, there will be more resistance to move forward.

Styrene supply will increase

For example, Shanghai SECCO’s 650000 ton styrene plant will be overhauled for 35 days from November 15. It is expected that the styrene plant with an annual output of 210000 tons in Shuangliang will be opened in mid December. Therefore, from the supply side, styrene supply will rise in the first quarter of next year under the condition that the current unit is not expected to be overhauled.

From the perspective of overseas styrene plant maintenance, most of the styrene units previously overhauled in South Korea were restored in November and early December, and the cosmor unit in the United States was also started from December 5 to 6, resulting in an increase in overseas styrene supply.

On the other hand, styrene demand will weaken seasonally. From the main downstream of styrene, with the approaching of the Spring Festival holiday, the operating load of styrene downstream will gradually decrease, and the support for styrene price will gradually weaken. The load drop of EPS and UPR is the most obvious.

On the whole, the current global styrene plant maintenance is less, while the styrene profit is fair, and the global supply is expected to rise. At the same time, the main downstream PS, EPS, ABS and UPR of styrene are facing load drop. Therefore, if there is not much maintenance of styrene plant next year, the downward pressure of styrene price in the first quarter of next year will be greater.