1、 Price trend of epichlorohydrin:

(Figure: P value curve of epichlorohydrin product)

2、 Market analysis:

Epichlorohydrin market was weak this week. According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the average price of epichlorohydrin enterprises as of June 19 was 10500 yuan / ton, down 2.48% compared with the beginning of the week and 4.55% compared with May 19.

Market review: on June 15, the average price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 10766 yuan / ton, the manufacturer’s shipment was under pressure, the downstream inquiry enthusiasm was not high, the purchase intention was low-end, on June 16, with Jiangsu Haixing’s qualified products put into the market, the downstream looked more and looked less, and focused on watching carefully, some manufacturers offered to actively yield profits, the price was reduced to 10666.67 yuan / ton, on June 17, the manufacturer’s shipment was blocked, and the market delivery was blocked The atmosphere was light, and the price was reduced to 10600 yuan / ton. On the 18th, the focus of new single negotiation in the market was down. The downstream consumption of raw materials was the main part, and the price was reduced to 10566.67 yuan / ton. On the 19th, the price was reduced to 10500 yuan / ton. The manufacturer’s shipment was under pressure, and the actual single transaction in the market was limited.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the latest price of epichlorohydrin in some enterprises (for reference only, the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated):

Raw propylene: on June 19, the market price of propylene in Shandong kept rising. After a week’s rally in early June, Shandong propylene market showed a significant correction in the middle of the price. According to the price of the business agency, last week’s 7-day cumulative decline of 350 yuan / ton. But at the end of the week, prices began to stop falling and pick up. Today, prices have risen 350-450 yuan / ton in a row. On the 19th, market transactions reached 6850-7150 yuan / ton, and the mainstream prices were around 6850 yuan / ton.

Downstream epoxy resin: on June 19, the weak finishing and operation of downstream epoxy resin was the main, the weak operation of dual raw materials was the main, the cost support was insufficient, the downstream just needed replenishment was the main, and the inquiry enthusiasm was not high.

3、 Future forecast:

According to the epichlorohydrin analyst of the business association, the price of raw propylene has been rising in the near future, with some support on the cost side. However, at present, the manufacturer’s delivery pressure is still there, and the quotation is based on the market. The trading atmosphere is light, and the confidence in the market is insufficient. It is expected that in the short term, the epichlorohydrin market will mainly fluctuate and decline in a narrow range.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, as of June 19, the average price of domestic maleic anhydride was 6466 yuan / ton (tax included), which kept stable operation in the week, 2.02% lower than the average price of 6500 yuan / ton in the same period last month.

On June 19, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 60.92, which was the same as yesterday, down 50.74% from 123.67 (December 26, 2017), the highest point in the cycle, and up 19.03% from 51.18, the lowest point on April 14, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Products: at present, the supply of solid anhydrite market in China is tight, the mainstream manufacturers supply more foreign trade orders, the reduction of market supply competition pressure is still good for solid anhydrite market support, driven by solid anhydrite market, the liquid anhydrite market price mentality rebounds, but the downstream demand is still flat, and the price is stable within the week. On the other hand, the delayed production of new capacity alleviates the contradiction between supply and demand in the market to a certain extent, but the weak demand of downstream terminals may still lead to the decline of maleic anhydride.

Industry chain: the market of raw material hydrogenated benzene has stopped rising and turned to falling, with slow delivery in the industry and weak price finishing; downstream resin plants still need to buy, and on-site delivery and investment have gradually slowed down, so the industry is more cautious to wait and see.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysts of maleic anhydride products of business association, the maleic anhydride market is generally stable at present, the trade and investment in the industry is slowing down, and the downstream market is buying on demand, but it is still insufficient just now, and it is expected that the weak market will maintain stability in the short term.

Last week (6.8-12), the domestic liquid ammonia market fell, and the main production areas in Shandong and Hebei fell significantly. According to the monitoring of the business agency, in Shandong Province, the drop of liquid ammonia from the middle of the week to the weekend was 300 yuan / ton, down more than 5%, and the weekend quotation was 2500-2700 yuan / ton.

The obvious decline of liquid ammonia in Shandong area is mainly due to the high inventory of liquid ammonia in the area and the large increase of supply. It is reported that last week, there was a temporary overhaul of downstream devices of large factories in Shandong, which reduced the self use rate of manufacturers and required a large amount of export sales. It is said that the daily supply of liquid ammonia increased by 1000 tons, so the factory price was lowered for two consecutive days, with a total of 300 yuan / ton, which led to the reversal of the liquid ammonia Market in early June It went down again.

In other regions, following the trend of Shandong, the price also went down. Shandong cut prices and absorbed orders, resulting in obvious pressure near Hebei. Some manufacturers in Hebei lowered the factory price by 200 yuan / ton over the weekend. The pressure on liquid ammonia inventory in this region has not changed much.

In the first ten days of June, the downstream demand of liquid ammonia is still poor, and it is in the off-season of fertilizer at present. According to the usual end of domestic demand of phosphate fertilizer market in April and may, diammonium enterprises rely more on the boost of export, and the demand for liquid ammonia is still relatively stable. However, in terms of the current downstream operating rate, the operating rate of Monoammonium is close to 50%, and that of diammonium is close to 60%. Although it is generally just needed to form a support for the market, the increase is no longer, mainly affected by the overseas epidemic situation, the export orders are shrinking, and the inventory of enterprises is under pressure, and the phosphate fertilizer enterprises are transforming into compound fertilizer, further weakening the demand for liquid ammonia. Since the first ten days of April, the price of DAP has continued to decline. At present, there is still no sign of any rebound. However, DAP rebounded in early June, with a small range of 0.36%, which has a limited impact on the market.

In the future, the business community believes that some urea plants in Shandong are difficult to recover in the near future, and the liquid ammonia will remain high. Affected by the backlog of market demand, the shipments in the surrounding market are still under pressure. Therefore, the price of liquid ammonia will remain relatively low in the near future. In the near future, we should pay attention to the news that the urea plant of Shandong enterprises is properly restored. It is expected that if the plant of the enterprise is stable, the price of liquid ammonia may rebound.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average factory price of domestic light potash at the beginning of the week was 6312.50 yuan / ton, while the average factory price of domestic light potash at the end of the week was 6250.00 yuan / ton, down 0.20%. The current price fell 1.19% month on month, and the current price fell 6.90% year on year.

This week, the domestic potassium nitrate declined slightly. The trading atmosphere of the potassium carbonate market was tepid, the activity was low, the demand side was weak, the actual turnover of the market was insufficient, and the downstream procurement maintained rigid demand. According to the statistics of the business agency, the main factory quotation range of domestic industrial potassium carbonate this week was about 6000-6400 yuan / ton (the quotation was only for reference), and the quotation was different according to the procurement situation.

This week, the quotation of the mainstream manufacturers of potassium chloride was temporarily stable, and the market of potassium chloride faced three major pressures, namely, the large stock in Hong Kong, weak demand and downward international prices. Therefore, the main contradiction in the current market is that supply exceeds demand. Limited support for potassium carbonate.

According to potash analysts of the business association, the overall trend of domestic potash fertilizer market is weak in the near future, and the total supply is at a high level. Subsequent prices are mainly affected by inventory. It is expected that the price of potash will fall mainly in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by the major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by the potassium carbonate analyst of the business association, for reference only. For more details, please contact the relevant manufacturers for consultation).

Last week (6.1-5), the domestic polysilicon market fell. According to the monitoring of the business agency, polysilicon fell by 3.14%, mainly due to the impact of cheap imported goods. At present, the polysilicon price has dropped by 22% compared with the peak in mid March. At present, the price of primary polysilicon is 38000-40000 yuan / ton.

At the beginning of June, domestic polysilicon manufacturers have recovered stability and maintained stable price operation. However, the price of imported silicon materials has successively reached a new low, further impacting the domestic market. According to statistics, the RMB price of non China polysilicon in May has dropped by about 5000 yuan / ton. However, the price of polysilicon imported materials continued to decline in early June, with a drop of more than 2000 yuan / ton in the first week of June. The underlying weakness of the market is still at the demand side. In the context of the epidemic, the demand for downstream procurement further shrank, and the export orders of components significantly shrank. According to statistics, the total export volume of components fell by – 18.3% month on month in April, and the export situation is expected to remain unsatisfactory in May. So the market price of polysilicon is still at the bottom.

From both sides of supply and demand, first of all, at the beginning of June, polycrystalline silicon supply is still abundant. However, due to continuous maintenance or load reduction production of several polycrystalline silicon enterprises in April and may, market inventory and manufacturer inventory have declined to varying degrees. At present, the supply pressure is obviously relieved compared with that in May. According to data, domestic polysilicon production in May was 32000 tons, down more than 10% month on month. Moreover, at present, the maintenance manufacturers are still in a high position. As of June 6, there are still more than 5 domestic polysilicon manufacturers with maintenance or limited production, including Xinjiang Daquan, Dongfang hope, new special energy, Sichuan Yongxiang, etc. Therefore, it is expected that polycrystalline silicon will enter the end of de stocking in June, and the supply pressure may be further eased, which may bring some good price.

In addition, from the perspective of polysilicon import end, the polysilicon import volume in April and may remained at a low level. According to statistics, the polysilicon import volume in April was about 8000 tons, down 28% on a month on month basis and 34% on a year-on-year basis. Moreover, with the influence of overseas maintenance enterprises, including Wacker and Malaysia OCI, the import volume will continue to decrease. This will also greatly relieve the pressure on the domestic polysilicon supply end.

From the perspective of demand, the terminal demand is still relatively weak, especially the overseas demand still hasn’t recovered to the level before the epidemic. The delay or cancellation of overseas orders at the domestic component end has led to the successive reduction of the operating rate of domestic component manufacturers, which is transmitted to the silicon material part of the upstream industrial chain. Especially at present, the epidemic in India is becoming increasingly serious. Last week, India announced that the “ban” will continue to be delayed for one month to In July, as the main export area of China’s photovoltaic products, the demand for polycrystalline products in this area decreased significantly, which greatly affected the export. However, Europe and the United States have restarted their economy in an orderly manner, and the resumption of production has also made weak demand develop in a good way. Overall, the silicon market in June may be significantly better than the previous two months. At present, domestic order demand is still dominant, especially affected by the “630″ policy dividend, downstream photovoltaic rush to install into the countdown, downstream demand is also picking up, which can be proved by the signing of polysilicon orders. In June, the signing of polysilicon orders by mainstream manufacturers was significantly better than last month, and the main orders of domestic mainstream polysilicon enterprises have been basically signed in the past two weeks.

In the later stage, the business community believes that the current polysilicon supply-demand contradiction is gradually improving. With the overhaul of the enterprise, the polysilicon inventory removal cycle will come to an end, and the medium and short-term supply pressure may be resolved. However, the demand side presents an uneven situation of “internal and external”. At present, the resumption of construction and production in China will stimulate the photovoltaic industry to a certain extent and drive the demand for silicon materials to a certain extent. On the contrary, overseas demand is still complex, mainly because the trend of overseas epidemic is still not effectively controlled, especially in India, where the epidemic is more serious, the demand for photovoltaic products in China is shrinking, the price of order volume reduction is falling, coupled with the increase of overseas anti-dumping efforts for photovoltaic products in China, the export situation in the short term is still not optimistic, and it is comprehensively predicted that polysilicon may complete the bottoming process in the short term, In the near future, due to oversold and easing of supply-demand contradiction, the possibility of price rebound cannot be ruled out.

1、 Price trend

From June 1 to 5, 2020, the price of coke market in Shanxi Province kept stable operation at the beginning of the week, and rose by 1% at the end of the week. The price at the beginning of the week was 1663.33 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week was 1680 yuan / ton.

On June 4, the coke commodity index was 87.31, unchanged from yesterday, down 35.35% from 135.04 (2018-09-13), the highest point in the cycle, and up 151.98% from 34.65, the lowest point on March 3, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Trend analysis

Summary of domestic main coke market price on June 5 (unit: yuan / ton)

Price of regional specifications on June 5 is up and down compared with the same period of last month

Shanghai secondary metallurgical coke 1930250

Quasi primary metallurgical coke 1990 250

Xuzhou secondary metallurgical coke 1900 250

Quasi first grade metallurgical coke 1960 250

Secondary metallurgical coke in Weifang 1840 200

Quasi primary metallurgical coke 1900 200

Taiyuan secondary metallurgical coke 1690 150

Quasi first grade metallurgical coke 1740150

Henan Pingdingshan secondary metallurgical coke 1860 160

Quasi primary metallurgical coke 1860 60

Secondary metallurgical coke in Jinzhong 1650 150

Quasi primary metallurgical coke 1710 150

Tangshan second grade metallurgical coke 1830 200

Quasi primary metallurgical coke 1880 200

Shenyang secondary metallurgical coke 1760 150

Quasi primary metallurgical coke 1820 150

As of Friday, most regions have implemented the coke price increase, with the increase range of about 50-100 yuan / ton. On June 4, Xuzhou took the lead in starting the price adjustment this month, with an increase of 100 yuan / ton. Xuzhou issued the implementation opinions on accelerating the transformation, upgrading and high-quality development of the chemical steel and coal industry in the whole province on August 7, 2018, which requires that Jiangsu Xuzhou coke enterprises retain 8.59 million tons by the end of June 2020 As a result, local supply in Xuzhou is tight, which drives the price of coke up. The policy of coal production is further implemented in the neighboring Shandong Province. At present, there are 24 million tons of coal production in Shandong Province. In the later stage, nearly half of the production capacity is gradually limited. The overall coke inventory in Shandong Province is low, the sales situation is good, and the local supply is in short supply. In addition to the limited production in some parts of Shanxi Province, the coke enterprises in other parts of China have a high operating rate and stable production. At present, most of the sales are to give priority to old customers.

In terms of demand, the blast furnace operation of downstream steel plants is still high, and the “two sessions” benefits are gradually released. In recent years, the blast furnace operation rate of steel plants has been maintained at more than 90%, and the demand for coke is good. In Jiangsu and Shandong areas, there is an external coke mining situation, local market supply is tight, and the demand for coke is well supported.

Summary of coke market price in some domestic ports (unit: yuan / ton)

Port varieties

sunshine

June 1st

June 5th

Trade level 1

Trade level II

Trade level 1

Trade level II

one thousand nine hundred and fifty

one thousand eight hundred and fifty

one thousand nine hundred and fifty

one thousand eight hundred and fifty

Tianjin

Trade level 1

Trade level

Trade level 1

Trade level

one thousand and nine hundred

two thousand

one thousand nine hundred and fifty

two thousand and fifty

Port prices rose slightly this week, with an increase of about 50 yuan / ton. Affected by domestic production restriction policies, some traders are reluctant to sell. Recently, local coke prices have risen all the way, and the price advantage of imported coke has begun to show. Recently, the market inquiry atmosphere is relatively strong.

3、 Future forecast

According to the business association, at present, there are more limited production areas in China, and the local supply of coke in East China is in a serious tense situation. With the further expansion of supply gap, the coke demand of downstream steel plants is just high and stable. However, due to the high cost pressure of both iron ore and coke in the near future, the steel plant may enter a high consolidation trend in the short term. It is expected that the coke price will be stronger in the future and stronger in the fourth round The range of prices will be further increased. With the implementation of production restriction in place gradually, there is still a possibility of slight increase in subsequent prices.

Since May, the international oil price has been on the rise. This week, the WTI crude oil price reached a two-month high of 33-34.5 USD / barrel, which supported refineries to push up the factory price driven by the buying sentiment. According to the price monitoring data of the business agency, the price of asphalt this week was 2250 yuan / ton, 2.16% higher than that of last week.

In the middle of last week, Sinopec’s settlement price of asphalt in East China and South China was increased by 100 yuan / ton, and the main price of asphalt was increased by 50-100 yuan / ton. Due to the influence of Sinopec’s price adjustment, the asphalt price also increased slightly. The demand for asphalt in South China is good, the inventory level of refineries is low, some refineries have reached the balance of production and sales, the overall demand is fair, and the main transaction price has increased by 150 yuan / ton.

The increase of asphalt supply restricts the increase of asphalt. The data shows that the domestic asphalt production in April was 2513200 tons, an increase of 5% year on year, and the import volume from January to March 2020 was 1093200 tons, an increase of 24.44% year on year. At present, asphalt is at a low level, and it is close to the peak season of asphalt demand, attracting merchants from the middle and lower reaches to take the goods. Under the strong demand, increasing supply has restrained the space for asphalt to rise. It is expected that the asphalt price will rise steadily in the near future.

1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

Mannheim potassium sulfate: about 2600% powder; about 2700% granules and 52% water-soluble powder. Report station of potassium sulfate manufacturer in water salt system: listing price of 51-52% powder 3100-3150 in Xinjiang; listing price of 50% powder 2250-2300 in Qinghai. The operating rate of potassium sulfate in Mannheim in Southwest China is as high as 90%. The factory price of 52% water-soluble powder is 2800-2900 yuan / ton, and the quotation for agricultural channel is still over 3000 yuan / ton. The sales are good, and the manufacturer has not much inventory temporarily. The sales in Northwest China are also good, but the outgoing freight pressure is high, and the factory price is low, and 50% powder is only within 2400 yuan / ton. The price of potassium sulfate in the water salt system of Qinghai Province has declined, and the arrival price of 50% powder has fallen to the range of 2200-2280 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

The pressure on the potassium sulfate Market is not very large for the time being. The price drop is mainly affected by the market environment. It is expected that the operating rate and price drop will only be slow. According to analysts of potassium sulphate of business association, it is the off-season of potash fertilizer demand at this stage, and enterprises will reduce the factory price, which is more likely to fall in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the large scale list of business agencies, the domestic xylene market price rebounded steadily this week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3620 yuan / ton, up 5.54% on last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Product: at present, the downstream demand is not strong, the transaction is general, the port inventory remains relatively high, but the oil price this week received four consecutive positive, driven by the cost, the domestic xylene price this week rose steadily, and the current mainstream price in East China is about 3660 yuan / ton.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, it is expected that the demand for crude oil will be better for global enterprises to resume work, adding that the total number of us oil drilling and EIA inventory will be greatly reduced, and the oil price will receive four consecutive positive results this week. At present, the international oil price shows signs of resistance near the high of nearly two months, so as to prevent the trend of shock and fall next week. As of early Friday morning, spot Brent rose 13.07%, Brent futures rose 13.21%, WTI futures rose 14.91% and Dubai futures rose 6.54%.

Downstream, in PX market, this week, the price of domestic Sinopec’s enterprises is about 4000 yuan / ton, and the latest price of the external market is about 468 US dollars / ton for FOB South Korea and 486 US dollars / ton for CFR China. It is expected that the market price of PX will rise slightly in the short term. In terms of PTA market, the spot market price of PTA in China is about 3550 yuan / ton, and the external market price is about 431 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the PTA price will be slightly revised back next week. In the ox market, Sinopec’s offer of ortho benzene is stable, with the price of 4000 yuan / ton. The external price of ortho benzene is about 470 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea. It is expected that the price of ortho benzene will rise slightly next week.

3、 Future forecast

According to xylene analyst of business and chemical branch, in the short term, we can see the supply cost side, OPEC + production reduction, total number of us oil drilling and EIA inventory. In the medium term, we can see the demand side, the economic and trade situation between China and the United States, the progress of economic restart in Europe and the United States, and the progress of industrial chain recovery. Next week, we will focus on the trend of crude oil. Overall, it is expected that xylene prices in the domestic market will be subject to shock adjustment next week.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose slightly this week, with the quotation rising 0.20% from 1626.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1630.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 16.12% year on year. Overall, the urea market rose slightly this week, with the urea commodity index at 75.81 on May 22.

2、 Market analysis

Product: the main urea factory price in Shandong Province rose slightly this week. The quotation of Yangmei plain urea this week is 1630 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable; Shandong Ruixing urea this weekend is 1620 yuan / ton, which is 10 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Mingshui chemical urea this weekend is 1640 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week.

Market demand: the agricultural demand is low, and the enthusiasm for goods preparation is weak; the industrial demand is general, and the procurement of downstream compound fertilizer and plate enterprises is cautious, most of which are used as they are purchased, and some of them are followed up. Supply: at present, the operating rate of enterprises in Shandong Province has declined, and the spot supply has slightly decreased compared with the previous period. The short-term urea market is expected to rise slightly.

Industry chain: the urea upstream products as a whole seem to have declined this week: the price of natural gas has declined, with the quotation down 1.61% from 2693.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2650.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 26.39% compared with the same period of last year; the price of liquid ammonia has declined this week, with the quotation down 1.07% from 3116.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3083.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 6.19% compared with the same period of last year %On the whole, urea cost support this week is weak. This week, the price of melamine in the downstream of urea was temporarily stable, with a price of 5066.67 yuan / ton. The downstream rubber plate factory had a good enthusiasm for urea procurement, which had a positive impact on the price of urea.

3、 Future forecast

In late May, the urea market in Shandong Province was mainly up slightly. Urea analysts of business club think that at present, agricultural demand is weak, downstream industry has a good enthusiasm for urea procurement, and it is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate slightly.