1. Trade name: silicon metal (441 #)

2. Latest price (May 7, 2020): 11058.33 yuan / ton

The price of 441 × silicon in each region is as follows:

The price range of metal silicon in Fujian area is 10600-10700 yuan / ton, that in Sichuan area is 10900-11000 yuan / ton, that in Kunming area is 10800-10900 yuan / ton, that in Shanghai area is 11500-11700 yuan / ton, that in Tianjin port is 11100-11200 yuan / ton, that in Huangpu port is 11100-11200 yuan / ton 。

3. Analysis points:

There is no significant increase in the production of silicon in Southwest China. Influenced by cost factors, the enthusiasm of silicon plants in Liangshan, Ya’an and other regions to resume production is not high, and it is expected to improve in the wet season in June. Recently, affected by the rising freight, the freight rates of raw materials and finished products have been increased, and the manufacturers’ willingness to hold up the price has been increased. Before and after the holidays, silicon prices stopped falling and stabilized, rising slightly.

4. Future forecast: at present, there is not much trading and short-term stable operation of silicon metal.

Commodity index: on April 29, the BPI of commodity price index was 710 points, down 1 point from yesterday, 30.32% from the highest point 1019 (2012-04-10), and 7.58% higher than the lowest point 660 on February 3, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

Price quotation: according to the monitoring data of business agency (100ppi. Com), polyacrylamide (cation, molecular weight 12 million), the market mainstream price on April 2, 2020 is about 15090 yuan / ton, and the market mainstream price on April 30 is about 14820 yuan / ton, 1.19% lower than the price on the second day.

Industrial chain:

Upstream: from January to March 2020, the mainstream price of acrylonitrile in the domestic market continued to decrease. At the beginning of January, the quotation was about 11200 yuan / ton, which was reduced by 100 yuan / ton for many times; in the middle of the year, the quotation continued to decline slightly, which was reduced by 50 yuan / ton to 10650 yuan / ton for three times; by the end of the decade, the decline had been about 4000 yuan / ton, with a fluctuation of about 20%; on February 21, the mainstream price was about 9500 yuan / ton, decreased by 200 yuan / ton on 24, decreased by 300 yuan / ton on 27, and decreased by 150 yuan / ton to 8850 yuan / ton on 28 , 1750-1800 yuan / ton lower than before, about 17% lower than before; in March, acrylonitrile continued to decrease, with a range of 1000 yuan / ton. In April, the price of acrylonitrile first fell and then stabilized. On the first day, the quotation was 7450 yuan / ton, with a decrease of over 17.9% in the first ten days and 1400 yuan / ton. On the 14th day in the middle of the year, the price rose by about 250 yuan / ton and was 6650 yuan / ton. Then, the price fell by about 250 yuan / ton in succession, to 6350 yuan / ton, and finally stabilized. In the last ten days, the quotation was relatively stable. Downstream: at present, it is difficult for downstream water treatment engineering construction enterprises to survive, some demand enterprises have been shut down, and the demand for raw materials is not good, which makes the business of polyacrylamide manufacturers more difficult than in previous years.

Manufacturer: return to work and production is in good condition, inventory is being consumed in succession, current downstream demand is limited, and raw material cost has been reduced. At present, the main specifications of Polyacrylamide in Henan Province are as follows: cation: molecular weight 12 million; quotation 14000-15000 yuan / ton; anion: molecular weight 10 million; quotation 8000-9000 yuan / ton; quotation 8800-9500 yuan / ton; quotation 9400-10000 yuan / ton; quotation 9800-10500 yuan / ton; quotation 18 million yuan / ton; quotation 8800-9500 yuan / ton; quotation 14 million yuan / ton; quotation 16 million yuan / ton Price: 10400-11000 yuan / ton; molecular weight: 18-20 million yuan / ton; price: 12000-12500 yuan / ton; price: 12000-13000 yuan / ton.

Industry: during the Spring Festival holiday in January 2020 to February 20, the relevant enterprises in the main production area stop production and delay to return to work. After February 20, the manufacturers in the main production area returned to work, and the logistics returned to normal in March, mainly consuming inventory. In April, the manufacturer’s survival was normal, the partial reduction of raw material cost and the weak demand led to the high inventory of the manufacturer; the latest notice said that the national high-speed will resume charging on May 6, and the ex factory price of polyacrylamide may be increased.

Future market forecast: according to the analysis of business community, the price of upstream raw material acrylonitrile will stabilize after the price is nearly 2000 yuan / ton this month, the current demand for polyacrylamide is still weak, and the manufacturer’s delivery price will be slightly reduced. In the future, with the recovery of high-speed charging and the stop of raw materials falling, the downward trend of polyacrylic acid is unlikely, and the larger probability is stable, medium and small upward trend. Limited by demand, the possibility of large upward trend is unlikely.

1、 Price trend

Market analysis of potash products

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average factory price of light potash in China this week is 6325.00 yuan / ton, including tax, which is stable. The current price is 7.50% lower than last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: this week, the market of potash remained stable, the production of domestic potash chloride in the upstream raw material was normal, the large factory still maintained the early policy of keeping the bottom, and the actual transactions in each region were discussed. There is no supporting role for the price of potash. This week, the market of potash is weak and downward. Generally speaking, the trading atmosphere of potash market is general, the actual trading volume of the market is relatively general, the downstream purchase volume is on the low side for a small amount of replenishment, and the domestic market of potash is volatile and consolidated. According to the statistics of the business agency, the main quotation range of domestic industrial grade potassium carbonate this week is about 6100-6500 yuan / ton (the quotation is only for reference), and the quotation varies according to the purchase situation.

3、 Future forecast

According to potash analysts of the business association, the domestic potash market has maintained a stable situation in the near future, and it is expected that the price of potash will be dominated by weak consolidation in the short term, while the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by the major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by the potassium carbonate analyst of the business association, for reference only. For more details, please contact the relevant manufacturers for consultation).

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, the domestic xylene market price fell this week and was revised back. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3450 yuan / ton, down 7.0% on last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Product: due to the oversupply of international crude oil and the near saturation of storage capacity, the price of oil this week plummeted to the bottom again. For the first time in the contract delivery history of WTI in May, the price of domestic toluene fell this week. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3550 yuan / ton.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, short-term international crude oil oversupply and storage capacity close to saturation led to another sharp drop in oil prices this week, and WTI fell to a negative range for the first time in the history of contract delivery in May. As of early Friday morning, spot Brent fell 19.09%, Brent futures fell 20.44%, WTI futures fell 34.08% and Dubai futures fell 12.09%.

Downstream, in PX market, this week, the price of domestic Sinopec’s enterprises was about 4300 yuan / ton, and the latest price on the external market was about 445 US dollars / ton for FOB South Korea and 463 US dollars / ton for CFR China. It is expected that the market price of PX will maintain a stable trend in the short term. In terms of PTA market, the price of domestic PTA spot market is about 3200 yuan / ton, and the price of external market is about 406 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the PTA price trend will be stable next week. In the ox market, Sinopec’s offer of o-benzene is stable, with a price of 4200 yuan / ton. The external price of o-benzene is about 440 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea. It is expected that the price of o-benzene will be stable next week.

3、 Future forecast

According to xylene analyst of business and chemical branch, in the short term, in terms of supply cost, Saudi Arabia and Algeria, the main oil producers of OPEC, said that they began to reduce production before the target date of May 1, and the situation in the US and Iran is tightening, which is favorable for oil price, while the international crude oil supply exceeds the demand, which is negative for oil trend. In the medium term, we can see the demand side, the inflection point of overseas epidemic and the progress of economic restart. Next week, we will focus on the impact of the US Iraq situation on the crude oil market, the trend of international crude oil and the progress of the resumption of construction of domestic downstream enterprises. Overall, it is expected that xylene prices in the domestic market next week will depend on the trend of crude oil.

1、 Price trend

Pure benzene returned to weakness this week, with prices falling in a row in the week, according to data from the business club’s large list. On April 19, the listing price of pure benzene was 3000-3900 yuan / ton (average price: 3350 yuan / ton); this weekend (April 26), the listing price of pure benzene was 3000-3500 yuan / ton (average price: 3170 yuan / ton), down 5.37% compared with last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Product: after two weeks of hoarding, downstream enterprises have sufficient pure benzene inventory, and this week’s pure benzene market negotiation is light. In addition, crude oil plummeted on Tuesday, and the price of external market fell sharply, driving the price of domestic pure benzene down. Since the middle of March, the port inventory of pure benzene has continued to grow, and the source of imported goods has continued to hit the domestic market. Sinopec’s price is at a low level this week, with no price adjustment yet.

3. External market: the external market fluctuated violently this week, plummeted at the beginning of the week, and rebounded sharply in the second half of the week. On Friday (April 24), South Korea imported 331.67 US dollars / ton of pure benzene, down 14 US dollars / ton, or 4.05% from April 17; East China imported 341 US dollars / ton of pure benzene, down 31 US dollars / ton, or 8.33% from April 17.

3. Crude oil: on Monday, the US oil may contract fell to a negative value unprecedented, crude oil inventory grew rapidly, and the lack of remaining storage capacity led to a sharp sell-off in the market. Later, it was reported that many countries issued policies to encourage crude oil production to reduce, and the output decreased, which led to the recovery of oil price, but the increase was not enough to bear the drop. Brent fell $4.13, or 20.51%, this week from April 17, while WTI fell $8.09, or 32.32%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 76.02% and WTI by 72.12%.

4. Downstream industry: styrene rebounded after a slight decline this week, with a slight decline as a whole. The price in Shandong on Friday was 5000 yuan / ton, down 2.91% from last week.

In the week, the aniline plant was restarted, the market supply increased and the price was lowered twice. Over the weekend, the price in Shandong was 5100 yuan / ton, while that in Nanjing was 5100 yuan / ton, down 7.83% from last week.

3、 Future forecast

1. Crude oil: driven by multi-party production reduction agreements, crude oil reserves may rebound, but in the short term, it can not offset the negative impact of sharp contraction in demand, and the oil market can not get rid of the dilemma of excess supply and demand. In addition, it is the off-season of crude oil consumption, the recovery of the market is blocked greatly, and it is still low in the short term.

Near the end of the month delivery, the pure benzene market may have a certain boost. It is expected that the pure benzene market will maintain weak operation in the short term, with a small rebound potential. Pay attention to the later trend of crude oil and external market.

1、 Price trend

The average price of phosphoric acid in China on April 17 was 5000 yuan / ton, which was flat on the third day of the week (13 days), up 7.76% compared with the same period last year, according to the bulk data list of business agency. On April 19, the phosphoric acid commodity index was 109.29, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.25% from 128.96 (2019-07-25), the highest point in the cycle, and up 19.90% from 91.15, the lowest point on October 13, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: the phosphoric acid market this week is average and the price is stable. At present, the yellow phosphorus at the end of raw material has increased slightly, but has little impact on the phosphoric acid market. At present, due to the impact of special events, the downstream demand is not good, the focus of transaction moves down, and some phosphoric acid enterprises reduce prices and make shipment. According to the monitoring of the business association, as of April 17, the average market price of 85% industrial purified water phosphoric acid was about 5000 yuan / ton, that of Sichuan was about 4700-5100 yuan / ton, that of Hubei was about 5000-5300 yuan / ton, that of Yunnan was about 5200 yuan / ton, that of Beijing was about 5100 yuan / ton, and that of all regions was lowered to varying degrees.

Industry chain: the number of yellow phosphorus enterprises started to increase, and there are many enterprises planned to resume production in the near future. The market of yellow phosphorus in various regions has increased slightly. The enthusiasm of downstream procurement is not high, the wait-and-see mood is obvious, and the mentality of traders is unstable. In April, the domestic phosphate rock market as a whole remained low and stable, and the market was mostly in a state of consolidation. New orders were generally traded in the market, and the on-site construction continued to improve slowly. The overall operation of domestic phosphate ore market has basically recovered as before. Recently, the inquiry of downstream products of phosphate ore has not been significantly improved, and the overall market trend is weak,.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 15th week of 2020 (4.13-4.17), there are 38 kinds of commodities rising month by month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which 14 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 15.7% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are acrylic acid (25.40%), maleic anhydride (19.02%) and crude benzene (15.55%). There are 21 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 8 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 9% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are propylene (- 34.79%), propylene oxide (- 13.77%) and propane (- 11.46%). This week’s average was up or down 1.02%.

3、 Future forecast

According to phosphoric acid analyst of Business & Social chemical branch, the raw material end is up slightly at present, but the phosphoric acid market is expected to remain weak and stable in the short term due to the drag of demand.

1、 Price trend of lithium hydroxide:

(Figure: P value curve of lithium hydroxide product)

2、 Market analysis:

Product: lithium hydroxide Market is stable in the near future. The overall environment of lithium salt market is sluggish, the market demand for lithium hydroxide has not changed significantly, new orders are limited, and the focus of market negotiation is temporarily stable. The average price of lithium hydroxide as of April 17 was 57000 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of April 1, according to the data in the bulk list of business agencies. At present, the external price of industrial grade lithium hydroxide of Shanghai Yulun Industrial Co., Ltd. is 58000 yuan / ton, and that of industrial grade lithium hydroxide of Zigong tongfarong Industrial Co., Ltd. is 55000 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price of industrial lithium hydroxide Market in China is around 55000-58000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, on April 16, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 43000 yuan / ton, and the average price of battery lithium carbonate in East China was 48000 yuan / ton. Power terminal consumption recovered slowly, demand was lower than expected, manufacturers’ shipment was under pressure, downstream bargaining power was strong, and the recent lithium carbonate market was weak and stable.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 12 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices on April 16, 2020, among which there are 3 kinds of commodities with an increase rate of more than 5%, accounting for 3.4% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top 3 commodities with an increase rate are crude benzene (15.55%), DOP (6.08%) and acrylic acid (5.80%). There are 10 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and there are 3 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 3.4% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top 3 products falling are propane (- 7.34%), propylene oxide (- 6.46%) and polysilicon (- 6.13%). The average rise and fall of this day was 0.05%.

3、 Future forecast:

According to the lithium hydroxide analyst of business club, the upstream lithium carbonate market is in weak operation, and the cost is also weakened in the face of lithium hydroxide support. The demand side is relatively general. It is expected that in the short term, the industrial lithium hydroxide Market will be temporarily consolidated, and more attention should be paid to the cost and downstream demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream carbide manufacturers fell from 2646.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2530.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 4.41%, down 19.68% year-on-year from the same period last year. Overall, carbide fell this week, with the carbide commodity index at 66.29 on April 10.

2、 Trend analysis

（1） Products:

The ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell this week: oveganone’s quotation for calcium carbide at the end of this week was 2620 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of this week; Shaanxi coal industry’s quotation for calcium carbide at the end of this week was 2400 yuan / ton, down 150 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of this week; China United Inner Mongolia’s quotation for calcium carbide at the end of this week was 2570 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of this week; Xingping Ningxia’s quotation this week The price of calcium carbide is 2400 yuan / ton, which is 200 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week.

At the end of this week, the actual transaction price of calcium carbide in Northwest China is about 2400-2600 yuan / ton: the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Shaanxi is about 2400-2600 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Ningxia is about 2400 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Inner Mongolia is about 2550 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.

（2） Industrial chain:

Upstream raw material Market: the ex factory quotation of Lancan carbon fell this week. Overall, the drop was about 130-150 yuan / ton. At present, the quotation of small materials is 600.00 yuan / ton, that of medium materials is 630 yuan / ton, and that of large materials is 680 yuan / ton. The price of upstream raw materials fell and the cost support was insufficient, which had a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Downstream market: PVC factory price rose this week. PVC price rose from 5412.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 5662.50 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 4.62%, down 16.20% year on year. Although PVC prices rose this week, but the market tends to be low, and the enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement is also low. As a whole, PVC market this week has a negative impact on calcium carbide prices.

3、 Future forecast

In the middle of April, the market of calcium carbide fluctuated slightly. The price of raw materials in the upstream is low, the cost support is not enough, the price of PVC in the downstream is low, and the procurement enthusiasm of customers in the downstream is low. The future market forecasts that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may fall slightly in mid April.

On April 14, the PX commodity index was 34.40, which was the same as yesterday, a record low in the cycle, 66.41% lower than the highest point of 102.40 on February 28, 2013. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now)

According to statistics, the market price trend of p-xylene in China is temporarily stable, the operation of new 600000 ton plant in Hongrun is stable, the operation of petrochemical plant in Pengzhou is stable, 50% of petrochemical plant in Urumqi is started, one line of aromatics plant in Fuhai Chuang is started, CNOOC Huizhou refining and chemical plant is overhauled, the PX plant in Hengli Petrochemical is put into operation, other units are temporarily stable, and the operation rate of domestic p-xylene plant is stable In about 70%, the domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal, and the domestic market price trend of p-xylene is stable temporarily. The operating rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On April 13, the closing price of PX market in Asia fell by 2 US dollars / ton, and the closing price was 457-459 US dollars / ton fob in South Korea and 477-479 US dollars / ton CFR in China. More than 40% of PX needs to be imported in China. Recently, affected by the fluctuation of crude oil price, the external price of PX declined slightly, and the market price trend of PX was stable temporarily.

As of the 13th, WTI crude oil futures market prices in the United States fell slightly, with the main contract at 22.76 yuan / barrel, down $0.35. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose slightly, with the main contract at US $31.48/barrel, or US $0.26. Saudi energy minister said on Sunday that OPEC and its allies (known as OPEC + Organization) will effectively cut production by 12.5 million barrels per day due to the increase in oil production in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait in April. Crude oil price shocks support the cost of downstream petrochemical products, and the market price trend of p-xylene is stable.

In terms of downstream PTA, the price trend of domestic PTA spot market slightly declined, with the market average price of 3442.22 yuan / ton as of April 14, and PTA price slightly decreased in recent two days. Influenced by the slight decline of crude oil price, the price of PTA Market in the downstream is slightly lower. In the near future, Fuhua industry and trade and BP Zhuhai restart, and the domestic PTA unit load is increased to 93.42%. At present, the overall inventory pressure in the market is still large. Domestic polyester production kept at 82.53% and weaving production fell to 51%. At present, the load is restored to a higher level, the inventory is still high, and there are 30-35 days for each polyester library. Affected by the decline of export orders, the inventory and capital pressure of textile enterprises rose, but PTA prices fluctuated at a low level, and the domestic price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable.

In the near future, crude oil prices fluctuated, the price of PTA Market in the downstream declined slightly, and the demand in the downstream of the terminal did not improve significantly. Business analysts believe that PX market price may keep fluctuating.