I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the asphalt market price fell in October, and the asphalt price at the end of the month was 3444 yuan / ton, down 5.86% from 3658 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

II. Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the demand of asphalt Market in October shows a weak trend in the peak season. In addition to the weak operation of international oil price in October, the price of asphalt Market in October shows a unilateral downward trend.

Industry chain: in the first ten days of October, the international crude oil market was affected by negative factors such as Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production resumed beyond expectation, and Britain’s negotiation of brexit was in deadlock, the crude oil price continued to decline; in the middle and last ten days of October, OPEC’s oil producing countries may expand the scale of production reduction, as well as the number of active drilling platforms in the United States and the decline of crude oil inventory, which will boost the crude oil market price. In October, international crude oil fell first and then rose, with a slight fall overall. WTI crude oil price fell by 1.52% and Brent crude oil by 2.10%.

In terms of asphalt Market: in October, the demand of asphalt Market in the North did not change significantly, and the weak operation of crude oil price made the price of asphalt market bear a downward trend. In September, the national asphalt production continued to climb to 2.668 million tons, the import volume was basically stable at about 380000 tons, and the refinery operation rate remained at about 61%. In October, refinery asphalt production is expected to increase month on month, and asphalt spot market continues to increase. The road construction in Northeast China is coming to an end, and the delivery price of long-term refining asphalt is down; the asphalt production in Shandong Province is full, and the asphalt price in North China is also declining due to the impact of external resources. On the whole, the market demand after the national day did not show a strong situation, and the market price of asphalt followed the weak trend of crude oil price.

III. future forecast

Lu Xingjun, an asphalt analyst at business club, believes that the peak season of domestic asphalt market is not prosperous in October, and the demand for asphalt will be further reduced by November. In addition, the current weak operation of international crude oil market price, it is expected that the asphalt price will continue to fall steadily in November.

I. price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the zinc price has recently been adjusted by shocks. Since October, the zinc price has been adjusted by shocks at about 19100 yuan / ton, and the zinc price has become stable. As of October 28, the price of zinc was 19276.67 yuan / ton, 1.24% higher than that of October 1, and 176.67 yuan / ton higher than that of 19100 yuan / ton. Zinc price slightly fluctuated in the range.

II. Zinc price trend of LME market futures

As can be seen from the figure, the price of zinc in LME futures market rose steadily from September to October. As of October 25, LME zinc ingot has offered 2468-2503 US dollars / ton, with an average price of 2472 US dollars / ton, up 214 US dollars / ton compared with 2210-2267 US dollars / ton in early September, with an average price of 2258 US dollars / ton. The price of zinc in LME market has increased substantially, which is good for domestic zinc price. The increase of domestic zinc price has increased, and the zinc market in the future is good.

III. futures zinc price trend in Shanghai Futures Market

As can be seen from the figure, the futures price of zinc in Shanghai futures market fluctuated and adjusted from September to October, while the price of zinc rose slightly in October. As of October 25, the quotation of zinc ingot in Shanghai futures market is 18705-18970 yuan / ton, with an average price of 18910 yuan / ton, which is 240 yuan / ton higher than the average price of 18670 yuan / ton in early October. In October, the zinc price of futures in Shanghai futures market recovered slightly, which is good for the domestic spot market, but the good is limited. It remains to be seen whether the upward momentum of Shanghai futures market can continue and affect the upward rebound of the spot market.

IV. future prospects

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of business club, believes that: in the international market, the LME zinc price has been rising steadily in only two months, which is good for the domestic zinc market. In the domestic zinc market, the spot market is still sluggish, but the futures market has recovered since October. Although it can not show that the domestic zinc market has been rising, it is still good for the domestic spot zinc market. Generally speaking, the positive performance of zinc market in the future is enhanced, and the decline of spot zinc market or the early stage of the first reform is followed by the recovery of international zinc market. However, due to the lack of positive performance of zinc market in the near future, it is difficult for zinc price to rise substantially. It is expected that zinc price in the future will fluctuate slightly.

At the beginning of the week, according to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic liquid ammonia market changed little. On the 28th, the increase of liquid ammonia in Shandong was 1.50%, and the main quotation was about 3000 yuan / ton. Most manufacturers in many places reported stable prices, some of which were 50-100 yuan / ton. Some enterprises in Shandong Province increased steadily, with a range of 100 yuan / ton. The price in Northwest China remained stable. At present, local ammonia output is surplus, especially in the western region, where the supply of goods is relatively loose, and the pressure of enterprise shipment is increasing, but the manufacturers with large ammonia output are mainly stable.

The change of liquid ammonia in North China is not big, and the price in the first ten days is on the high side, which leads to the lack of willingness to break through the current ammonia storage price, and the range of increase and decrease is within 100 yuan. Due to the large number of shutdown enterprises in Shanxi, the problems of transportation restrictions still exist, and the lack of downstream demand support, the delivery pressure increases significantly, and the market also has the risk of decline. The main quotation in North China is 2800-2900 yuan / ton. Next.

Due to the impact of production restriction and shutdown in Hebei Province, the amount of ammonia in the region is lower, and some enterprises raise the price by 100 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, but at the same time, the downstream performance is not good. Large downstream enterprises such as China and Afghanistan shutdown lead to weak demand in the downstream, and the enterprise has a large amount of inventory, so the price change is affected by multiple factors, and there is not much change, and the price rise and fall is weak. The mainstream quotation in Hebei Province is 2850-3000 yuan./ Tons.

At the beginning of the week, there was still downward pressure in Central China, and the atmosphere in the field was still not hot. The delivery pressure in Hubei was obvious. Part of Henan was affected by environmental protection pressure, and the price gave more profits. At present, the liquid ammonia market was enveloped in a bad atmosphere, weak operation, and the mainstream quotation in Henan was 2700 yuan / ton up and down.

In the future, the business community believes that the liquid ammonia market may continue to maintain a weak position in the short term, mainly affected by the weak demand in most regions, resulting in overstocking of inventory. The recent market does not exclude the possibility of continuing to explore low.

I. price trend

According to the data in the business club’s large list, the price of pure benzene at the beginning of this week is still weak after a slight recovery. On Friday, the price of pure benzene dropped at 5000-5600 yuan / ton, and on Friday, the price of pure benzene was 5000-5600 yuan / ton, which is basically the same as last week’s price, stable and small.

II. Analysis and comment

1. Products: at the beginning of this week, the pure benzene market was affected by the short squeeze and the spot supply in East China was tight, with the price up. Near the end of the weekend, the shortage of replenishment ended, the market mentality turned to prudence, and the price weakened.

2. Crude oil: this week, the international oil price slowly fell and then rose rapidly. At the beginning of the week, due to various data showing the weak economy, the market was worried about the decrease of crude oil demand, and the mentality was short. U.S. crude oil stocks were down 1.7 million barrels from last week on Wednesday, with news that OPEC may consider increasing production cuts at its December meeting, and oil prices rose rapidly. WTI was up 4.38% compared with last Friday (October 18), Brent was up 3.05%.

3. Related industries: downstream styrene rose after falling this week, up 0.43% compared with last week, with low profit level and weak support due to device problems.

4. External market: at present, the internal and external markets are in order, and the price difference is large; the Asian American arbitrage window is closed, pure benzene merchants feel pressure, and the market mentality is cautious.

III. future forecast

1. Crude oil: in the next week, the oil price may be consolidated at a high level, focusing on OPEC production reduction activities.

2. Domestic market: the supply of coking industry is sufficient, and the impact of short-term low price still exists. The low profit level of downstream styrene, coupled with frequent problems in the plant, leads to demand or affected.

Taking into account, it is expected that the weak trend of pure benzene will continue next week, but port inventory may limit the decline.

I. price trend

According to the data monitored by the business association, the price of domestic potassium nitrate fluctuated and consolidated this week. The price of domestic industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate in this week was 4362.50 yuan / ton, and the current price was 4.90% lower than last year.

II. Market analysis

Product: this week, the domestic potassium nitrate Market was in a shock consolidation, with a general trading atmosphere and a general downstream demand. It was in a stable period of consumption, with a relatively stable supply and demand, and the market was in a consolidation state. As a whole, the operating rate of potassium nitrate manufacturers is at a low level, so the overall inventory of potassium nitrate is at a low level, there is no sales pressure for the time being, and the downstream purchase volume is on the low side for a small amount of replenishment, basically there is no stock situation, and the price of potassium nitrate is volatile and consolidated. Domestic mainstream manufacturers of potassium nitrate offer 4200-4500 yuan / ton.

III. future forecast

According to analysts of potassium nitrate of the business association, the market of potassium nitrate this week is volatile and consolidated. It is over half of October. The traditional peak season of “nine gold and ten silver” still hasn’t improved. Spot trading is tepid and tepid. It is expected that the demand for potassium nitrate will hardly change greatly in the short term. The market may be consolidated and operated.

I. price trend

In this week’s (10.14-10.18), the domestic market of 1 × 1 tin ingot rose in shock. The average price in the domestic market was 138175 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 139887.50 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 1.24%.

On October 20, the tin commodity index was 71.26, unchanged from yesterday, 28.92% lower than the highest point in the cycle, 100.25 (2011-09-05), and 66.26% higher than the lowest point, 42.86 on December 9, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

II. Market trend analysis

Domestic market: this week’s spot tin market bottomed out and rebounded. This week’s U.S. retail data hit a 7-month low. Under this influence, the U.S. dollar index showed a continuous correction. Under the double positive stimulus of the U.S. dollar correction and industry production reduction, the spot market was strongly attacked. Driven by the positive effect of Shanghai tin futures, the price rose by 2000 yuan / ton. As of Friday, the domestic mainstream price was 138000-141000 yuan / ton. 。 In terms of premium and discount: on Friday, the main contract set of Shanghai phase Xi’an Power Co., Ltd. was yunxiping water – Premium 500 yuan / ton, ordinary Yunzi premium 500 yuan / ton – Premium 300 yuan / ton, small brand premium 1000 – Premium 500 yuan / ton.

Major events in the industry: Indonesia’s refined tin exports fell 41% year-on-year in September: Jakarta reported on October 11 that Indonesia’s refined tin exports fell 41% year-on-year in September, according to data released by the Ministry of trade on Friday. According to data, Indonesia’s refined tin exports last month were 5225.26 tons, down from 8854.30 tons in the same period last year. On a monthly basis, refined tin exports in September fell 5% from the previous month.

Nonferrous Industry: market sentiment was mixed this week. At the beginning of this week, China and the United States reached an agreement on the framework of trade negotiations. The process of brexit was accelerated, the market performance was good, and basic metals generally stabilized in a high range of shocks. However, with the release of global economic data in succession, the trend of global economic downturn made the basic metals one after another spit out the weekly gains, showing a high pressure situation.

III. future prospects

Next week, European and American economic data are still relatively concentrated, and it is expected to remain weak. The US dollar is in low-level consolidation, which may support the basic metals. There are long orders delivered in the domestic trade market. Due to the upgrade of value-added tax tickets, the spot performance may be strong. Most of the basic metals will maintain the range shock pattern, and it is temporarily difficult to breed the ability and space for a major breakthrough.

Market Overview

According to the monitoring of bulk data from the business association, the dichloromethane market in Shandong Province remained stable at a high level, and the average price of dichloromethane in Shandong Province was about 2650 yuan / ton in the week.

quotations analysis

Product: this week, the dichloromethane market in Shandong Province has maintained stable operation, the overall trade and investment in the industry is fair, the supply and demand are in a dynamic balance, and the downstream market just needs to be stable. At present, the price of dichloromethane in Shandong is about 2650 yuan / ton; that in East China is about 2750-2950 yuan / ton; that in Jiangxi is about 2950 yuan / ton. In terms of unit start-up, Jinling of Shandong Province started normal operation, Luxi Chemical industry started about 60%, Liwen of Jiangsu Province started normal operation, and Liwen of Jiangxi Province started 50%.

Industry chain: in the upstream, the natural gas market is affected by the weather turning cold, the overall demand is improving, and the price continues to rise, up 2.33% in the week, at present about 3666 yuan / ton; the overall start-up of the liquid chlorine market has declined, but the downstream market is flat, stable in the week, and at present, the enterprise reports about 300 yuan / ton more. In the downstream, the domestic refrigerant market is in the off-season, with poor terminal demand, and there is no obvious improvement in the short term; the pharmaceutical and agricultural market and solvent industry have a good intention of replenishing inventory, with stable demand, which is good for the price support of dichloromethane.

Forecast for future market

According to the data analyst of methane chloride of business association, the overall trading atmosphere of the market is fair at present, the downstream market and traders have a good intention of replenishing inventory, the supply of production enterprises is stable, and the dichloromethane market is expected to operate stably in the short term.

I. price trend

According to the data of the commodity list of the business association, the formaldehyde Market in Shandong rose this week. The average price of formaldehyde at the beginning of the week was 1280.00 yuan / ton, and the average price of formaldehyde at the weekend was 1296.67 yuan / ton, up 1.30%. The current price is down 14.97% year on year.

II. Market analysis

Product: the price of formaldehyde in domestic market has increased. By the end of this week, the main factory quotation in Hebei is about 1100 yuan / ton, the main factory quotation in South China is about 1200 yuan / ton, the main factory quotation in Shandong is 1270 yuan / ton, and the main factory quotation in Jiangsu is 1450 yuan / ton. Shandong Linyi Yinhe annual output of 120000 tons of formaldehyde plant maintenance, formaldehyde content 36.7-37%. Linyi Jinyuan Chemical Co., Ltd. has two formaldehyde production lines with an annual production capacity of 80000 tons, formaldehyde content of 37%, and unit overhaul. Hebei Kaiyue annual output of 400000 tons of formaldehyde plant maintenance. Formaldehyde market supply is affected by environmental protection, formaldehyde manufacturers increase actively, formaldehyde price increases.

Industry chain: after the upstream methanol Festival, the downstream market gradually recovers, some downstream enterprises actively replenish, the inland methanol market shipments smoothly, and the northwest main production area is strong driven, the on-site operators have a positive operating attitude, and the market trend around Bohai Sea and Huaihai sea continues to rise. At the beginning of the month, the price was 2310.00 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, it was 2390.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 3.48%. The demand in the downstream market is relatively stable, supported by favorable supply and demand, and the price of formaldehyde is rising.

III. future forecast

Recently, the stock pressure in the upstream methanol market is not great, the manufacturer’s mentality is firm, the overall market trading atmosphere is positive, the methanol market or price operation is the main, the cost side is well supported, and the downstream market starts to improve, so the formaldehyde analyst of the chemical branch of the business society predicted that the domestic formaldehyde price or consolidation will be the main in the near future.

Price Trend

The domestic aggregate MDI market has a narrow fluctuation. According to the sample data monitored by business associations, the average market price of aggregate MDI was 12800 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week, 13075 yuan/ton at the weekend, a 2.15% rise in the week, a 1.55% rise in the same period of last month, and a 9.93% decrease in the price over the same period of last year.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, the domestic aggregate MDI market fluctuates narrowly. In terms of price, the barrel-loading and discharging negotiation price in Shanghai in East China is from 12000 to 12200 yuan/ton, down 500-300 yuan/ton from last Friday, the PM200 negotiation price is from 13000 to 13200 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton from last Friday, and the aggregate MDI negotiation price in Japan and Korea is around 12000 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton from last Friday. Returning after the festival, the listed price of the factory is lower than the psychological expectation of the traders, the overall market mentality is frustrated, and the terminal demand is still poor. The main reasons are: due to weather in the north, outdoor construction is limited, the digestion speed of terminal raw materials is reduced; the stock of raw materials for end users is still sufficient, and the purchase intention of the market is depressed. Under the guidance of multiple bears, the offer of the manufacturer has fallen repeatedly to let the profit out, but the supply of factories is relatively tight, and the market falls slowly.

On the market side, as of Friday (10.12), the market of aggregate MDI in South China was weak and shocky. The overall atmosphere in the venue was still low and the turnover was very limited. Businessmen continued to let profits to deliver goods at sporadic low prices. At present, the quotation of barreled goods with tickets in Shanghai refers to 12000-12200 yuan/ton, and the quotation of barreled goods with tickets in PM200 refers to 13100-13300 yuan/ton. East China Polymerization MDI market is vulnerable to shocks, on-site inquiries to buy gas is not good, follow-up business downturn, business negotiations on low-end shipments, sporadic low prices have been heard. At present, the quotation of barreled goods with tickets in Shanghai refers to 12000-12200 yuan/ton, and the quotation of PM200 barreled goods with tickets in Shanghai refers to 13000-13200 yuan/ton. North China Polymerization MDI market is weak and tidy, on-site trading and buying gas is low, trading is rarely heard, traders talk about low-end shipments, low prices are also heard. At present, Shanghai barreled discharging quotation refers to 12000-12200 yuan/ton, and PM200 barreled discharging quotation refers to 13000 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene: domestic pure benzene Market rose. Outside prices rose in an all-round way, while U.S. outward prices supported domestic selling prices. The price of crude oil rose when a tanker from the Iranian National Tanker Company caught fire near Jeddah after being hit by “foreign objects”. Domestic market prices went up, but downstream styrene fell and downstream demand for pure benzene remained poor. It is tentatively estimated that the short-term pure benzene market range is weak.

Aniline: in the week, domestic aniline Market negotiation was stable, Tianji device was restarted, Jinmao was about to restart, after market supply increased, it is expected that aniline negotiation will be stable in the near future. The mainstream reference price in Shandong and North China is 7760 yuan/ton, while the mainstream market price in East China is about 7800 yuan/ton. (Note: The rise and fall of factories and markets in North China are counted according to the rise and fall of cash.)
3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperatives Viewpoint: At present, the factory controls the supply, but the northern thermal insulation plant is gradually ending, and the terminal is more ready, the market delivery or maintenance just needs to follow up, the overall mentality of the field operators is not good, individual profitability is safe. Business Cooperatives aggregate MDI analysts expect that the domestic aggregate MDI market will be weak and volatile next week, focusing on factory supply policy and market turnover.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, as of October 12, the latest domestic price of cyclohexanone was 8223 yuan/ton, which was 0.60% lower than the same period last month and 36.67% lower than the same period last year. The domestic market of cyclohexanone is mainly narrow and low.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic market of cyclohexanone continues to decline, mainstream factories downward quotation, but the interest of downstream orders is not high, market participants are empty of the future market mentality, low-end negotiations. Pay attention to the plant dynamics, and expect short-term domestic cyclohexanone market or weak operation.

Industry chain: pure benzene: domestic pure benzene market is rising.  Outside prices rose in an all-round way, while U.S. outward prices supported domestic selling prices. The price of crude oil rose when a tanker from the Iranian National Tanker Company caught fire near Jeddah after being hit by “foreign objects”. Domestic market prices went up, but downstream styrene fell and downstream demand for pure benzene remained poor. It is tentatively estimated that the short-term pure benzene market range is weak.

Caprolactam: The domestic caprolactam market continues to be weak, the demand is weak, the initiative of the polymerization plant is not good, the purchase mood of raw materials is cautious, the market is bullish, the overall trading performance is light, the short-term domestic caprolactam market is still weak finishing, operation suggestions pay attention to terminal receipt mood changes and factory dynamics. East China solid market mainstream offer 12500-13000 yuan/ton nearby, cash delivery. East China liquids market transactions in the vicinity of 1240-12500 yuan/ton, acceptance delivered.
3. Future Market Forecast

Cyclohexanone market is weak, factories negotiate with each other, rumors of price reduction, prudent purchasing downstream, general market atmosphere, business analysts predict that the short-term cyclohexanone market is weak.