Price Trend
According to the monitoring data of business associations, soda ash is mainly running steadily this week. From the beginning of the week to the end of the week, the average market price in East China is 1950 yuan/ton. On March 14, the light soda commodity index was 100.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.15% from the cyclical peak of 117.86 points (2017-11-21), and up 58.35% from the lowest point of 63.15 on November 18, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)
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II. Market Analysis
Products: This week, the domestic soda price maintained stable operation as a whole. Mainstream tariff-containing ex-factory price of light alkali: 1800-1900 yuan/ton in Shandong; 1800-1900 yuan/ton in Hebei; 1600-1650 yuan/ton in Henan; 1650-1700 yuan/ton in Hubei; 1850-1950 yuan/ton in Guangdong and 1400-1500 yuan/ton in Qinghai. The main stream of heavy alkali including tax delivery price: at present, the main stream of heavy alkali in North China is about 1800-2000 yuan/ton, and the main stream of Shahe area is 1800-1850 yuan/ton.
Industry chain: At present, the overall shipment of soda enterprises is general, and the downstream enterprises still take delivery on demand. As the downstream demand for light alkali is not warm, the market trend is weak, and the procurement is more cautious. However, this week’s starting rate has declined, downstream users have changed their purchasing mentality due to rising prices. There is a significant increase in order taking, and some soda manufacturers have limited control of orders due to supply effects. The market may be optimistic.
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Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, there are two kinds of commodities rising and falling in the price list of chlor-alkali industry in the 09th week of 2019 (3.4-3.8), two kinds of commodities falling, and one kind of commodity rising and falling to 0. The main commodities rising were calcium carbide (2.28%) and PVC (0.79%). The main commodities falling were hydrochloric acid (-12.50%) and light soda ash (-0.85%). This week’s average rise and fall was -2.05%.
3. Future Market Forecast
Business analysts believe that the starting load of soda industry returns to a reasonable level rationally, the bottom price of the critical cost of soda market, the price of soda manufacturers are reluctant to continue to reduce the price promotion, and the game between the two sides may be eased. It is expected that the soda market will be mainly flexible in the short term, or will increase slightly in the later period, depending on the downstream market demand.
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