Price Trend

The domestic butadiene market fell sharply this week. Business Association monitoring showed that the domestic butadiene market price at the beginning of the week was 8973 yuan/ton, and the domestic butadiene price at the weekend was 8358 yuan/ton. Within the week, the price fell by 6.85%, 22.75% compared with the same period last year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: This week, the domestic butadiene market shocks downward, Sinopec’s supply price dropped 500 yuan/ton to 900 yuan/ton; Liaotong Chemical Industry’s bottom bidding price was 7110 yuan/ton; Fushun Petrochemical’s bottom bidding price was 7000 yuan/ton, down 800-900 yuan/ton from last week. Within a week, Fushun Petrochemical continued to export volume, abundant market supply and low downstream demand, resulting in poor supply and turnover of manufacturers, prices continue to fall under pressure. And the continued decline in the market aggravated downstream bearish expectations, the cycle of superimposed synthetic rubber market fell, dragging butadiene market continued to decline. In the mid-and late-week period, manufacturers’low prices stimulated the downstream part to just buy at a low price, and market turnover improved. On Thursday, Northeast China’s supply volume increased, boosting middlemen’s offer to follow up. The delivery price in Shandong is 8000-8100 yuan/ton, while the reference price in East China is 8300-8400 yuan/ton, which is about 500 yuan/ton lower than last week. Short-term market turns upward, most downstream merchants are still cautious, and the actual follow-up situation remains to be seen.

Industry Chain: Styrene-butadiene rubber: Domestic Styrene-butadiene rubber market shows a weak operation, butadiene external market is still weakening the mindset of the industry, while weak demand also has constraints, the industry offers around the factory, but the phenomenon of excessive low prices weakened, the transaction is flat. Cis-butadiene rubber: The domestic cis-butadiene rubber market is weak and stable. Businessmen offer on the factory price, on-site inquiry atmosphere is still light, the volume of spot transactions is not much, part of the supply transactions on the factory price, sporadic supply negotiations price slightly inverted. SBS: Domestic SBS market oil glue low-level operation, dry glue narrow finishing.

3. Future Market Forecast

Stage of downstream demand, and some buy-at-bargain boost Northeast supply price increase transactions, market turnover improved. However, East China’s inventory digestion is slow and there is still shipment replenishment in the later period, and Northeast China’s supply market continues to export. Overall, short-term market supply is difficult to sustain good, downstream just need to boost is limited. Business community butadiene analysts expect that early next week the market will digest the space for a small rebound this weekend. Afterwards, under the influence of increased supply, the market may resume its decline. Discuss cautiously.