According to statistics, the price of phthalic anhydride in China fell sharply in February. As of the end of the month, the price of phthalic anhydride from o-phthalic anhydride was 5700 yuan / ton, down 7.69% from 6175 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, down 18.18% year on year. In recent years, the price of phthalic anhydride in China has been falling continuously, the demand of plasticizer industry has not improved, and the market of phthalic anhydride market has been depressed.

In February, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride continued to decline. Affected by the epidemic situation, the transportation of chemicals was limited, and the inventory of some phthalic anhydride manufacturers started to increase, resulting in poor delivery. In East China, the market price of phthalic anhydride and phthalic anhydride has fallen, downstream factories have shut down a lot, factory inventory pressure has increased, and high-end transactions have been blocked. Recently, the factory inventory has increased, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride has declined. In East China, the main flow of negotiation for neighboring process and naphthalene process is 5500-5800 yuan / ton and 5300-5500 yuan / ton respectively; in North China, the main quotation for phthalic anhydride market is 5400-5800 yuan / ton. Most of the manufacturers in the site have price callback, the downstream construction is not high, the procurement is based on demand, and the wait-and-see mentality is strong. The domestic phthalic anhydride plant is under normal operation, and the spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the site is sufficient, in addition to phthalic anhydride The demand for phthalic anhydride is not good, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride is declining.

In the near future, the price of ox2 upstream product of phthalic anhydride fell in February. By the end of the month, the price of ortho benzene was 5800 yuan / ton, down 7.79% in February. The price of imported ortho benzene in port area fell. The price of external ortho benzene fell. The price of imported ortho benzene fell. The price of ortho benzene in port area was negative for the future market. The actual transaction price was subject to negotiation. It was discussed in detail and affected by the drop in the price of ortho benzene upstream raw material The market price of phthalic anhydride fell.

The downstream DOP market price fell slightly. The DOP price fell by about 1% in February. In addition, the price of raw materials isooctanol fell in shock. The cost of DOP raw materials fell. The DOP enterprises started work normally. The operating rate dropped. During the anti epidemic period, logistics was limited, transportation was difficult, and DOP manufacturers’ inventory was high. The price of DOP fell, the purchasing enthusiasm of customers was poor, the price of downstream PVC fluctuated and remained stable, the equipment of PVC enterprises started at a low level, and the mainstream price of DOP market was about 7100-7500 yuan / ton. In the future, the downward pressure of DOP is still there, the upward momentum is increased, the price trend in the downstream is slightly down, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is greatly affected.

On the whole, the market of plasticizer industry chain is in a downturn, and the prices of DOP products from the upstream raw material o-benzene to the downstream have declined to varying degrees. In addition, the recent crude oil prices continue to fall, and the downstream petrochemical products are under pressure. It is expected that the price of phthalic anhydride market will rise heavily in the later period, and the slight drop in prices may be small and large.

1、 Price trend

This week, the domestic liquefied gas (Shandong) market was stable first and then fell. On February 24, the average price of liquefied gas market was 4050 yuan / ton, and on February 28, the average price was 3700 yuan / ton, with a decline of 8.64% during the period. The price was 7.88% lower than that of the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Products: the liquefied gas market fell back after continuous upward trend. As of February 28, the price of liquefied gas from Sinopec Guangzhou Chemical Co., Ltd. was 4010 yuan / ton, that of Sinopec Jingmen Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was 4400 yuan / ton, that of Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was 3920 yuan / ton, that of Sinopec Qingdao Refining Chemical Co., Ltd. was 3800 yuan / ton, and that of Shandong Jinjin Co., Ltd The factory price of liquefied gas of Chenghua group is 3750 yuan / ton, and that of Sinopec Shijiazhuang refining and chemical company is 3550 yuan / ton. The price of Sinopec Luoyang Petrochemical LPG is 3850 yuan / ton.

In the early stage, the overall demand of liquefied gas market was good, and the price went up one after another, with a large increase. But this week, the market’s rise slowed down and prices recovered. International crude oil fell sharply this week due to the warming of the global epidemic. In the early stage, with the price rising to a high level, the downstream resistance mentality has increased. At present, the terminal resumption has not been fully recovered. With the completion of the downstream periodic replenishment, the stock has been withdrawn from the market and consumed. The market transaction atmosphere has been weakened compared with that in the early stage. The manufacturer’s shipment is not smooth, and the stock has increased gradually. From the 26th, the price has fallen.

Saudi Aramco issued CP in February, with propane of 505 US dollars / ton, down 60 US dollars / ton compared with the previous month; butane of 545 US dollars / ton, down 45 US dollars / ton compared with the previous month.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are two kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the eighth week of 2020 (2.24-2.28), among which the top two are methanol (0.50%) and coking coal (0.45%). There are 13 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 4 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are WTI crude oil (- 11.78%), Brent crude oil (- 11.57%), and liquefied gas (- 8.64%). This week’s average was – 3.14%.

3、 Future forecast

At present, the market supply is still running at a low level. Although the downstream resumption of work has increased, it has not been fully recovered. The downstream has withdrawn from the market and consumed inventory after periodic replenishment. The delivery atmosphere of the manufacturer is obviously weaker than that of the earlier stage, the inventory is gradually increasing, the firmness situation is not there, and the price is reasonable. It is expected that the demand will increase next week, and the downstream will start to replenish periodically, so that the price may stop falling and rise slightly.

1、 Price trend

On February 28, the NBR commodity index was 73.31, down 0.79 points from yesterday, 40.72% from 123.67 (2017-02-20), the highest point in the cycle, and 42.02% higher than 51.62, the lowest point on March 8, 2016 (Note: since 2012-09-01). According to the monitoring of the business association, the price of NBR was 16200 yuan / ton at the beginning of February and 15733 yuan / ton at the end of the month, which was 2.88% lower than that at the beginning of the month.

2、 Market trend analysis

First, the sharp drop in crude oil dragged down butadiene and acrylonitrile, the raw materials of nitrile. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of butadiene in China fell sharply, with the price at the beginning of February at 8056 yuan / ton and the price at the end of February at 6223 yuan / ton, down 22.75% overall. On the other hand, the factory price of Shanghai Secco in East China fell from 10400 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 8950 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 13.94% as a whole.

Secondly, affected by the “new crown” epidemic prevention and control, especially in the first and middle of February, on the one hand, domestic traffic control is relatively strict, and the circulation of production materials is not smooth. On the other hand, the domestic downstream enterprises’ resumption of production has been delayed, and the demand after the festival is less than that of the previous years. According to the business association, by the middle of February, the return rate of the downstream rubber hose and belt industry enterprises was only within 40% or even lower, and the area of return to work was gradually increased near the end of the month, and the return rate in East China was relatively high. Therefore, the overall turnover in February was light, which was negative for NBR.

Finally, in February, the overall operating rate of NBR industry in China was relatively low around 60-70%, and the supply side of NBR formed a certain support. According to the understanding of the business agency, the normal start-up of domestic Lanzhou Petrochemical, Zhenjiang Nandi and other nitrile units, the low load start-up of Jinpu, and the shutdown and maintenance of shunze nitrile in the first and middle of February. As of the end of February, n41e, 3305e and 3308e had reported 15000 yuan / ton, 15500 yuan / ton and 15600 yuan / ton respectively.

3、 Future prospects

Business analysts believe that at present, on the one hand, crude oil, butadiene, acrylonitrile prices are still low, especially the risk of crude oil decline is still in. On the other hand, domestic enterprises will gradually expand the resumption of work, and later demand will increase. In terms of upstream and downstream conditions, the trend of NBR in the later stage is unclear, and good domestic resumption of work will drive up the price, but if crude oil continues to fall sharply, it will drag the entire industrial chain.