The spot tin market price (11.05-11.12) fluctuated upward this week. The average price in the domestic market was 290387.50 yuan / ton last weekend and 297262.50 yuan / ton this weekend, up 2.37% this week.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes of K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall. The tin price shown in the figure above has fluctuated for four consecutive weeks.

The dollar fell at the beginning of this week, and the metal market was boosted and rose slightly. Later, as the US dollar market stopped falling and rebounded, the base metals began to operate under pressure. On Thursday, after the shock trend of nearly half a month, Shanghai tin prices began to enter the rebound trend.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 45th week of 2021 (11.8-11.12), there are 16 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the non-ferrous sector, including 1 kind of commodity rising by more than 5%, accounting for 4.5% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were silver (5.31%), aluminum (3.02%) and nickel (2.76%). There are 3 kinds of commodities with a month on month decrease, and 2 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 9.1% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were silicon (- 10.61%), antimony (- 5.13%) and praseodymium (- 0.92%). The average rise and fall this week was 0.57%, and most of the nonferrous metals markets rose.

Affected by the tightening of public health events in Myanmar, the subsequent tin import is expected to decline. Although domestic smelters have fully recovered from the impact of power restriction policy, it is expected that they will fall into the tight end of the mine again, which will further affect the output of tin ingots. In terms of demand, it is close to the end of the peak season, the impact of power rationing has been negligible, and the overall demand is still acceptable. At present, the tin ingot inventory continues to be low, and the market supply is still tight. Under the stimulation of low inventory, the tin price is expected to rise further. In terms of current fundamental factors, it is necessary to focus on the impact of tin ore imports in Myanmar on the market mentality.

1、 Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic market of PA6 fell in early November, and the spot prices of various brands decreased. As of November 12, the mainstream offer price of 2.75-2.85 of China viscosity by the sample enterprises was about 16300 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of – 7.03% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

Industrial chain: the price of upstream caprolactam fell, the price of raw material pure benzene decreased, and the cost support was insufficient. The demand of downstream polymerization plants is weak, mainly just need to buy, and the market turnover is weak. Sinopec cut the price of high-end liquid caprolactam to 15200 yuan / ton. The price of caprolactam is expected to run weakly and stably in the short term.

The recent price decline of upstream caprolactam weakened the cost support of PA6. This week, the overall operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization plants increased slightly, about 60% overall, and there is still an expectation of increase in the future. At present, the profitability of polymerization plants is general. In terms of demand, the current downstream just needs replenishment. In addition, environmental protection policies such as double limit affect the load of terminal enterprises, the user’s taking of goods is lower, and there is more wait-and-see atmosphere in the venue.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that in early November, caprolactam weakened its support for the cost side of PA6, and the spot price of PA6 continued to fall. The terminal demand is weak, and there is no large-scale replenishment. The trading situation on the floor is poor. Most buyers are bearish and the wait-and-see mood is aggravated. It is expected that the spot price of PA6 may still fall slightly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan and Guizhou decreased. The average price of yellow phosphorus was 46666.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 36666.67 yuan / ton at the weekend. The price decreased by 21.43% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

Yellow phosphorus prices fell this week. At present, the overall market is relatively cold, and there is a strong wait-and-see mood in the downstream. The downstream purchases yellow phosphorus at a low price, and the transaction price is mostly close to the low end. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 32000-35000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation in Sichuan is about 40000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation in Guizhou is about 35000 yuan / ton.

In terms of phosphate rock, according to the data monitoring of business society, as of November 5, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate rock in the mainstream areas of China was around 663 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as that on November 1, and increased by 83 yuan / ton or 14.37% compared with that on September 1 (the reference average price of phosphate rock was 580 yuan / ton). At present, the overall supply of phosphate rock in some parts of China continues to be tight, and some Guizhou mining enterprises do not quote for the time being and only receive orders from old customers. Therefore, phosphate rock analysts of business society believe that in the short term, most of China’s phosphate rock market will continue to operate at a high level.

In terms of coke, the market price of coke in Shandong Port decreased slightly. The mainstream spot exchange ex warehouse price of quasi primary coke in the port is 3950-4000 yuan / ton. The first round of increase and decrease landed, and the market price followed the decline. The overall mentality of the port market is weak, the source of goods available for sale is still small, the port inventory increased slightly, and traders actively ship. The quotation of secondary metallurgical coke in Panzhihua coke market is 4270 yuan / ton. At present, some steel mills have started the first round of raising and lowering 200 yuan / ton, and some areas have landed. There are still many downstream steel mills with limited production and maintenance. Recently, the steel mills have made great efforts to limit production and have stricter expectations in the future. The demand for coke has declined and the purchase intention is slightly low. In terms of coking enterprises, the inventory in the plant is higher than that in the early stage, and the mentality of coking enterprises is declining. Without the support of downstream demand, coke prices may decline.

In terms of phosphoric acid, the market price of phosphoric acid moves downward, the market gradually cools down and the focus moves downward. According to the monitoring of business society, the average price of phosphoric acid at the beginning of the week was 14533.33 yuan / ton, and the average price at the weekend was 11033.33 yuan / ton. The price decreased by 24.08% during the week. At present, the price of raw materials is lowered, the cost support is gradually weakened, the operating load of phosphoric acid enterprises is gradually increased, the space elasticity of adjustable price is increased, and the enthusiasm of the market is gradually cooled. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market will continue to decline in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

According to the yellow phosphorus analyst of the chemical branch of business society, the price of yellow phosphorus fell sharply this week, and the phosphate rock operated stably. With the increase of electricity prices in various regions, the yellow phosphorus manufacturers had a strong attitude of supporting the price. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will be stable temporarily in the short term.

Recent price trend of sulfuric acid

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic sulfuric acid market price fell this week, and the quotation fell from 860 yuan / ton last weekend to 811.67 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 5.62%, a year-on-year increase of 104.19% over the same period last year. Overall, the sulfuric acid market fell slightly this week.

The upstream support is general, and the downstream purchase intention is weakened

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers fell this week, the manufacturer’s inventory was general, and the downstream demand weakened. Heze Jiangyuan sulfuric acid quoted 900 yuan / ton this weekend, which fell by 50 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Zouping Tianlu sulfuric acid quoted 650 yuan / ton this weekend, down 50 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Changzhou Qinghong sulfuric acid quoted 850 yuan / ton this weekend, down 100 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Changzhou Changjiang sulfuric acid quoted 750 yuan / ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend; Xiangcheng San’an sulfuric acid quoted 880 yuan / ton this weekend, down 80 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Liaocheng Huatong sulfuric acid quoted 840 yuan / ton this weekend, down 10 yuan / ton compared with last weekend.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream sulfur market was consolidated at a high level this week, with a quotation of 2123.33 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 123.51% compared with the same period last year, and the cost support was general. The downstream bromine market fell slightly, and the quotation fell from 69000.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 68857.14 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 0.21%, a year-on-year increase of 114.06% over the same period last year. The downstream formic acid market rose slightly. The quotation increased from 8050.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 8066.67 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 0.21%, a year-on-year increase of 266.67% compared with the same period last year. On the whole, the upstream and downstream products had a negative impact on the price of sulfuric acid this week.

The market outlook fell slightly

In the middle and early November, the sulfuric acid Market in Shandong Province may fluctuate and fall slightly. The upstream sulfur price has been adjusted at a high level recently, with insufficient rising power and general cost support. The downstream bromine market has decreased slightly, the downstream formic acid market has increased slightly, the downstream enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid is general, and the product trend is downward under the contradiction between supply and demand. Sulfuric acid analysts of business society believe that under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials in the domestic sulfuric acid Market in the short term, the sulfuric acid market may fluctuate and decline slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the bulk list of business society, the bromine price was adjusted and operated this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in Shandong was 69000 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the average market price was 68857.14 yuan / ton, down 0.21%.

2、 Market analysis

At present, the domestic bromine price is adjusted and operated. At present, the mainstream price of Shandong enterprises is about 67000-69000 yuan / ton. The bromine price is adjusted and operated this week. At present, the domestic bromine price is consolidated, the enterprise inventory is low, and there is no hurry to ship. Now, the downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine are in conflict with the high price bromine, and multi-dimensional rigid demand is the main demand.

In terms of raw materials: the domestic sulfur market is running stably temporarily, and the average market price from Monday to Sunday is about 2123.33 yuan / ton. The price of sulfur is mainly strong, the inventory of refineries in China remains low, the manufacturer’s quotation is high, the downstream traders purchase on demand, the enterprise shipment is stable, the low price in the port is difficult to find in the yard, which gives market support, and the future sulfur market is stable for the time being.

Business analysts believe that the overall demand growth of bromine is relatively slow and the enterprise inventory is low. At present, the downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine are resistant to high price bromine and mainly purchase on demand. At this stage, the stalemate market operation is dominated. It is comprehensively expected that the short-term bromine price will still be high in the later stage, depending on the downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of calcium carbide SG5), on November 5, the average mainstream price of PVC in China was 9340 yuan / ton, a decrease of 960 yuan / ton compared with 10300 at the beginning of the week, a decrease of 9.32% during the week and an increase of 27.29% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

The PVC market continued to decline this week, with a decline of about 9% during the week, and the focus continued to move down. During the week, the disk continued to weaken, the price of PVC futures continued to decline, and the spot market followed the decline rapidly. The quotation of enterprises fell again and again, making it difficult to price. For example, the quotation of Beiyuan, China salt and other enterprises has been as low as 8800 yuan / ton, falling below the 9000 yuan mark and falling to the price level in August. The increase was basically spit back. The mentality of cargo holders was negative and continued to reduce prices for shipment. At present, due to the increase in the output of raw calcium carbide and the decline in the price of blue carbon, calcium carbide fell by about 24% during the week, with the lowest price of 4100 yuan / ton. The support of the cost side was weakened and the demand was weak. It still maintained the just needed replenishment and bargain hunting. Under the situation of weak cost and demand, the high price of PVC was difficult to support, so that the price continued to decline.

In terms of spot, at present, the quotation range of domestic pvc5 electric stone enterprises is mostly around 8800-9650 yuan / ton, and the range of pvc5 electric stone in Hangzhou is 9100-9300 yuan / ton; The mainstream of pvc5 electric stone in Shanghai is 9100-9300 yuan / ton; The mainstream price of PVC ordinary electric stone in Guangzhou is 9500-9650 yuan / ton, and the market price in various parts of China continues to decline.

Data show that at present, CFR China is down 50 yuan at 1650 US dollars / ton, CFR Southeast Asia is down 60 yuan at 1750 US dollars / ton, and CFR India is stable at 1900 US dollars / ton.

region workmanship 11 / 5 (yuan / ton) 11 / 1 (yuan / ton) Rise and fall remarks

East China Calcium carbide method 9000-9500 9900-10250 – 900/-750 Ex warehouse

south China Calcium carbide method 9250-9550 10100-10500 – 850/-950 Ex warehouse

North China Calcium carbide method 8900-9400 9850-10000 – 950/-600 Delivered

southwest Calcium carbide method 8950-9200 9600-10000 – 650/-800 Delivered

On November 5, the international oil price rebounded sharply. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $81.27/barrel, up US $2.46 or 3.1%, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was US $82.74/barrel, up US $2.20 or 2.7%. Despite the pressure of the US government, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) still maintained their previous policies, the market expectation of future supply shortage remained unchanged, and the oil price was supported.

For ethylene, the external price of ethylene fluctuated and consolidated last week, rising slightly. The average price of ethylene at the beginning of the week was US $1176.25/t, and the average price of ethylene at the weekend was US $1187.75/t, up 0.98%. The current price increased by 5.55% month on month, and the current price increased by 66.35% year-on-year. At present, in terms of crude oil: the recent crude oil market has fallen, but the overall price of crude oil is still at a high level, so the data analysts of business agency expect the external price of ethylene to rise next.

Calcium carbide, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell sharply last week. This week, the average ex factory quotation of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China decreased from 7433.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 5600.00 yuan / ton this weekend, down 1833.33 yuan / ton, down 24.66%, up 93.33% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Overall, the calcium carbide market fell sharply this week.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of business society believe that at present, the disk is weak, the PVC futures price continues to fall, driving the sharp decline in the spot market price. At the same time, the price of raw calcium carbide is reduced, the demand is weak, and the cost demand is weak. It is expected that the PVC market will be difficult to find good in the short term, and the market will continue to be weak.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the external price of ethylene fluctuated and consolidated this week, rising slightly. The average price of ethylene at the beginning of the week was US $1176.25/t, and the average price of ethylene at the weekend was US $1187.75/t, up 0.98%. The current price rose by 5.55% month on month, and the current price rose by 66.35% year-on-year.

Recently, the external ethylene market as a whole showed a volatile upward trend. The price of ethylene in Asia is stable. As of the 3rd, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $1196-1206 / T and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $1111-1121 / T. European ethylene market prices rose. As of the 3rd, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1226-1236 / T and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1200-1208 / T. The price of ethylene in the United States is stable. As of the 3rd, the price is 806-824 yuan / ton. In the recent external ethylene market, the overall demand is OK, the shock is higher, the market trading atmosphere is good, and the transaction is positive.

Internationally: on November 3, the international oil price fell sharply. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $80.86/barrel, down US $3.05 or 3.6%, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was US $81.99/barrel, down US $2.73 or 3.2%. At the macro level, the Fed tightened monetary policy and reduced the scale of bond purchase. In addition, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported yesterday that US crude oil inventories increased more than expected last week. Oil prices fluctuate, giving limited support to ethylene costs.

Recently, the styrene market continues to decline slightly. Crude oil and coal prices fell at the same time, bulk commodities followed the decline, raw material pure benzene continued to be reduced by a narrow margin, the current price difference in the market period was slightly smaller, the import cost and listing price cost were supported, and the overall negotiation atmosphere was light. The cost support of styrene was temporarily stable, some shipments were closed actively in the market price decline, and the selling price was allowed. The increase of bad news suppressed some bargain hunting replenishment transactions. It is expected that the styrene market will still open low and fall slightly in the short term.

Ethylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business agency believe that: at present, in terms of crude oil: the recent crude oil market has fallen, but the overall price of crude oil is still high, so the data analysts of the business agency expect the external price of ethylene to rise next.

Price: industrial grade lithium carbonate 184800 yuan / ton, battery grade lithium carbonate 192600 yuan / ton

Analysis: the price of lithium carbonate continues to rise steadily. At present, the manufacturer’s inventory is relatively low, and the market demand is still rising. Due to relatively few transactions at high prices, the price of lithium carbonate has a positive trend, but the upward trend is slightly slow. With the coming of winter, affected by the cooling and production reduction in Qinghai, the output will be reduced, or the market will be dominated by destocking.

Forecast: the decrease of future market output will make the relationship between supply and demand still tense. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate may still rise in the short term.

Recent urea price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic urea mixed price fell slightly this week, and the quotation fell from 3108.33 yuan / ton on October 25 to 3050.00 yuan / ton on October 29, a decrease of 1.88%, an increase of 73.62% over the same period last year. Overall, the urea market fell slightly this week, and the urea commodity index was 143.26 on October 29.

The cost support weakened, the downstream demand was general, and the urea supply decreased

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream ex factory price of domestic urea fell this week. Zhangzhou San’an urea is quoted at 3250 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 3050 yuan / ton this weekend, down 130 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Guangzhou Bangyi urea is quoted at 3000 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea overall fell slightly this week: the price of LNG increased slightly, and the quotation increased from 6810.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7293.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 7.10%, an increase of 102.59% year-on-year compared with the same period last year; The price of thermal coal fell sharply. The quotation fell from 2185.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1505.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 31.12%, up 147.95% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The price of liquid ammonia increased slightly. The quotation increased from 5110.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 5183.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.44%, a year-on-year increase of 61.14% compared with the same period last year. The price of melamine in the downstream of urea rose slightly this week, from 19966.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 20333.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.84%.

From the perspective of demand: the peak of agricultural demand has passed, sporadic fertilizer supplement in some areas, rising industrial demand, increased demand for urea in downstream compound fertilizer and rubber plate plants, and the operating load rate of melamine enterprises remains high. Most of them follow up with the appropriate amount. In terms of supply, urea enters the centralized maintenance period, and the supply decreases. On the whole, the urea cost support is weakened, the downstream demand is weakened, and the urea supply is insufficient.

The future price of urea is bearish

In the first ten days of November, the domestic urea market may fluctuate and fall slightly. Urea analysts of business society believe that at present, urea has entered the centralized maintenance period, and the supply is tight, but the peak of agricultural demand has passed, the follow-up of industrial demand is mainly bargain hunting, and the future market price may fluctuate or fall slightly.

Recent domestic sulfuric acid price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic sulfuric acid market price fluctuated and fell this month. The quotation fell from 871.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 860.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 11.67 yuan / ton, down 1.34%, up 116.35% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. On the whole, the sulfuric acid market fell this month, and the sulfuric acid commodity index was 133.85 on October 31.

The upstream support is good, the downstream market is boosted, and the purchase intention is general

Domestic sulfuric acid Market in October

manufactor October 1st October 19th October 31st

Heze river source 870 yuan / ton 950 yuan / ton 950 yuan / ton

Zou Ping Tianlu 720 yuan / ton 720 yuan / ton 700 yuan / ton

Liaocheng Huatong 660 yuan / ton 850 yuan / ton 850 yuan / ton

Changzhou Qinghong 1050 yuan / ton 1000 yuan / ton 950 yuan / ton

Changzhou Changjiang River 950 yuan / ton 850 yuan / ton 750 yuan / ton

Xiangcheng San’an 980 yuan / ton 980 yuan / ton 960 yuan / ton

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the prices of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers have increased and decreased this month, the manufacturer’s inventory is general, and the downstream demand is good. The quotation of Heze Jiangyuan sulfuric acid at the end of the month is 950 yuan / ton, which is 80 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the month; Zouping Tianlu quoted 700 yuan / ton at the end of this month, down 20 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of this month; Liaocheng Huatong sulfuric acid quoted 850 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 190 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month; Changzhou Qinghong quoted 950 yuan / ton at the end of the month, which fell by 100 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month; The quotation of Changzhou Changjiang River at the end of the month is 750 yuan / ton, which is 200 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the month; The quotation of Xiangcheng San’an sulfuric acid at the end of the month was 960 yuan / ton, which decreased by 20 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream sulfur market has increased slightly recently. The quotation has increased from 1970.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2123.33 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 153.33 yuan / ton, or 7.78%, a year-on-year increase of 125.89% compared with the same period last year. The cost support is good, which has a positive impact on sulfuric acid. The downstream formic acid market rose slightly. The quotation increased from 8016.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 8050.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 0.42%, a year-on-year increase of 265.91% compared with the same period last year. The downstream bromine market rose sharply. The quotation increased from 48250.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 69000.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 20750 yuan / ton, or 43.01%, and a year-on-year increase of 116.38% compared with the same period last year. The downstream market rose sharply, and the downstream has high enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid. On the whole, the upstream and downstream products had a positive impact on the price of sulfuric acid this month.

Market outlook rose slightly

The domestic sulfuric acid Market in the middle and early ten days of November may rise slightly. The upstream sulfur price has risen slightly recently, with good cost support, the downstream bromine market has risen sharply, the downstream formic acid market has been consolidated at a high level, the downstream enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid has been strengthened, and the product trend is upward under the contradiction between supply and demand. Sulfuric acid analysts of business society believe that under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials in Shandong market in the short term, the sulfuric acid market may rise slightly.