1、 Price trend
According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the propylene market steadied after a sharp fall in December, fell again in the second half of the month and recovered at the end of the month. At the beginning of the month, the average price of the enterprise is the monthly high price, at 7095 yuan / ton; at the end of the month, the average price of the enterprise is 6654 yuan / ton, with a monthly drop of 6.22%; the monthly low price appears on December 28, which is also the annual low price, at 6510 yuan / ton, with a monthly amplitude of 8.25%.
2、 Analysis and comment
Products: at the beginning of December, influenced by the international crude oil market “Black Friday”, the price began to decline, which has fallen by about 400 yuan / ton. After that, the price remained stable and fluctuated in a narrow range. At the end of the month, the price of the enterprise began to decline again from December 25, which fell by about 200 yuan / ton in two days. The price began to rise at the end of the week. Today, the price of the enterprise rose by 50-100 yuan / ton. At present, the market turnover is 6600-71 About 00 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6600 yuan / ton.
Industry chain: in the upstream, the news of OPEC’s production reduction policy extension affected the international crude oil market high consolidation, but the increase was small, which had a certain pulling effect on propylene. In the downstream, the start-up of downstream manufacturers gradually recovered, the delivery situation improved, the profit margin was fair, and it also had a certain positive impact on propylene.
PP spot fell in December, with a monthly decline of 6.56%. The fundamentals were long and short. From the results, the market was weak and had limited impact on propylene.
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In December, partial supply of acrylic acid was tight, and the manufacturer’s intention to hold up the price was obvious, with a monthly increase of 3.39%. It is expected that short-term acrylic acid market will be dominated by high firm operation, which will have a certain positive impact on propylene.
Propylene oxide fluctuated broadly in December, with a monthly decline of only 0.98% and a monthly amplitude of 5.96%. It may still decline in the future, which has a certain negative impact on propylene.
In December, epichlorohydrin began to rise in the middle of the month after a slight downward trend. At the end of the month, it was stable at a high level, with a monthly increase of 10.39% and a monthly amplitude of 19.72%, which played a certain role in raising the price of propylene.
N-butanol fell in December, with a monthly decline of 7.16%. At the end of the month, there was a significant downward trend, which may have some negative impact on propylene.
Octanol almost maintained stability in December, with a monthly decline of 0.48%, which had little impact on propylene.
In December, the phenol Market in Shandong Province remained stable, with a monthly decline of 0.51% and an amplitude of 1.04%, which had limited impact on propylene market.
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In December, Shandong acetone market fell sharply in the middle of the month, with a monthly decline of 7.55%, which had a certain negative impact on propylene.
In December, the isopropanol market also declined due to the influence of upstream acetone market, but rebounded at the end of the month, with a monthly decline of 10.96% and a monthly amplitude of 13.70%, which also slightly negative for propylene.
3、 Future forecast
According to the propylene analyst of business and chemical branch, in December, the propylene market fell twice, with a total decline of nearly 10%. At the end of the month, it recovered slightly from the annual low price. The upstream crude oil market is in high consolidation; the downstream operating rate is good and the profit margin is fair, so it is expected that the propylene price in Shandong will still rise in the short term.
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