In recent years, the price of heavy rare earth rebounded and rose, but the market price of light rare earth is still at a low level. The price trend chart of some domestic rare earth products:

Recently, the domestic market price of heavy rare earth rebounded. As of the 15th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 156000 yuan / ton, an increase of 2% this week; the price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 156000 yuan / ton, an increase of 2%; the price of terbium rare earth also rose 10000 yuan / ton on the 15th. However, the domestic market price of light rare earth still maintained a low level, the price of neodymium oxide was 285500 yuan / ton; the price of praseodymium neodymium alloy was 360500 yuan / ton The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 283500 yuan / ton. In recent years, the domestic price of heavy rare earth rebounded higher, and the market price of light rare earth stopped falling. Affected by favorable national policies, the market of heavy rare earth rose.

On November 15, the rare earth index was 335 points, the same as yesterday, 66.50% lower than the highest point in the cycle, 1000 points (2011-12-06), and 23.62% higher than the lowest point, 271 point, on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

In recent years, the market price of rare earth has stopped falling and stabilized, the price of heavy rare earth in the rare earth market has rebounded and increased, the supply policy of domestic heavy rare earth market, the export of heavy rare earth has improved, and the price of domestic heavy rare earth has rebounded and increased. In addition, the demand for permanent magnet has increased recently, the market trend of PR nd series products has stopped falling, the on-site supply is normal, the demand for light rare earth is general in the near future, and the market price remains low. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has particularity, especially some products have radiation hazards, which makes the environmental protection supervision more strict. Under the strict inspection of environmental protection, the manufacturer reasonably controls the sales, but the downstream demand has not changed much in the near future, and the price trend of most rare earths is mainly stable.

Geng Shuang, spokesman of the Ministry of foreign affairs, presided over a regular press conference on the 14th. Geng Shuang said that China is the world’s largest country in rare earth reserves and production, and plays an important role in the global rare earth industry chain. China has always adhered to the principle of openness, coordination and sharing, promoted the development of domestic rare earth industry, and is willing to meet the legitimate needs of the development of all countries in the world with rare earth resources and products, To play a positive role in promoting the development of China’s economy and the world economy. China’s rare earth production accounts for 73% of the world’s total, ranking first in the world and playing an important role in the game between big countries. Rare earth PR nd and Dy TB are mainly used in NdFeB magnetic steel. In addition, the Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources jointly issued a notice to release the total amount control indicators of rare earth mining, smelting separation and tungsten mining in 2019. The supply and demand pattern of the rare earth industry is expected to further improve, and people in the domestic market are waiting for the good news of the national reserves.

Rare earth analysts of the business agency expect that the recent domestic environmental protection scrutiny will not be reduced. In addition, the domestic export of rare earth industry will be well supported, and the supply and demand pattern is improving in a good way. It is expected that the price of heavy rare earth in the rare earth market is still expected to continue to rise, and the light rare earth affected will also have a rebound.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the comprehensive price of potassium chloride is temporarily stable this week. This week, the average price of the mainstream comprehensive quotation of potassium chloride was 2235.00 yuan / ton, down 6.88% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Overall, this week’s potassium chloride market was temporarily stable, with the potassium chloride commodity index at 70.95 on November 15.

II. Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream potassium chloride manufacturers this week is temporarily stable: the weekly ex factory quotation of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride is 2200 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; the weekend distribution quotation of Anhui Badu potassium chloride is 2270 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week. This week, the actual transaction in the potassium chloride market is not good. On the whole, the main contradiction in the market is that the supply exceeds the demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, the downstream procurement is just in demand, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable.

III. future forecast

In late November, the overall trend of potassium chloride market or low consolidation dominated. After the adjustment in October, the capital return of each plant is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, and the production capacity is increased. However, the market of potassium chloride is facing three major pressures, namely, large stock, weak demand and downward international prices. Therefore, the main contradiction in the current market is that supply exceeds demand. According to analysts of KCl in business association, the short-term market of KCl is dominated by low consolidation under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

I. price trend

According to the data in the business club’s large list, the market price of monoammonium phosphate in China remained stable this week. On November 11, the average ex factory price of domestic powdered monoammonium was 1966 yuan / ton, and on November 15, the average ex factory price was 1966 yuan / ton, with stable price. On November 15, the monoammonium phosphate commodity index was 65.83, unchanged from yesterday, down 34.72% from the highest point in the cycle of 100.84 (2011-09-13), and up 6.02% from the lowest point of 62.09 on September 19, 2017. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Products: 55% of ammonium powder in Anhui Province has a factory quotation of 1850-2050 yuan / ton, and the commencement is stable. In Hubei Province, the ex factory price of 55% powdered ammonium is about 1900 yuan / ton, and that of 60% mainstream powdered ammonium is 2000-2100 yuan / ton. The market in Henan Province has maintained stable operation, and 55% of ammonium powder has been quoted at about 1850 yuan / ton, with stable start-up. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Shandong Province is 2000-2050 yuan / ton, and the price is stable. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Sichuan is about 1950 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: weak domestic sulfur market, weak downstream demand, weak enthusiasm of terminal purchase in the market, no news from the outside market, port inventory continues to increase instead of decreasing, and the industry is bearish on the future market. Phosphorus ore market has been in a weak state of consolidation, demand is still weak, on-site trading is weak, enterprises sporadically supply orders from old customers, continue to digest inventory, and new orders are scarce.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 45th week of 2019 (11.11-11.15), there are 19 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which there are 2 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are hydrochloric acid (19.18%), chloroform (12.55%) and R22 (4.80%) There are 27 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, with 2 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products decreased were epichlorohydrin (- 9.22%), aniline (- 7.50%), titanium dioxide (- 3.58%) This week’s average was 0.18%.

III. future forecast

According to analysts of monoammonium phosphate, the market price of raw materials has declined, the market demand is light, and the industry has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. The operating rate of the enterprise is 50%, and some of the enterprise’s devices are overhauled. The downstream compound fertilizer enterprises are not active in buying goods, and they usually take the goods on demand. At present, the market has no good support, and the weak market continues. It is expected that the weak market of monoammonium phosphate will be dominated.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the asphalt market price is stable this week, with the asphalt price closing at 3378 yuan / ton, 0.59% lower than last week’s Asphalt price.

II. Analysis of influencing factors

Products: the price of international crude oil market fluctuates in a narrow range. Refineries in North China and Shandong continue to reduce the factory price of asphalt, and the transaction price of asphalt market continues to decline.

Industrial chain: this week, international crude oil prices fluctuated in a narrow range. Although OPEC countries are expected to continue to expand the scale of production reduction, U.S. crude oil inventory growth, production hit a record high, coupled with a slowdown in global economic growth. The international crude oil market still has no breakthrough direction, and the international crude oil price keeps stable operation.

Asphalt Market: the weather turns cold, the rigid demand of asphalt market continues to weaken, and the market price is under pressure. In Northeast China, the current road demand continues to weaken, the overall demand is not good, and Liaohe Petrochemical and other refinery units are shut down and converted to production. In Shandong and North China, the factory asphalt price of refineries has been lowered under the trend of weakening asphalt market demand. The demand for asphalt in the East China market is fair, but there is no obvious peak season in the South China and southwest markets, and the demand is stable. Overall, the demand for asphalt in the north will further weaken, while the southern market will be stable for the time being.

III. future forecast

Lu Xingjun, an asphalt analyst at the business club, believes that the international crude oil price is in a volatile circle, the demand for asphalt market is declining, and the asphalt price is expected to continue to decline.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of November 7, the average price of domestic aggregate MDI market was 12475 yuan / ton, and the price fell 2.54% month on month in the same period of last month, down 4.77% year on year. The overall market is low.

II. Market analysis

Product: domestic aggregate MDI market is low-end. North China and East China Wanhua cargo negotiation is 12300-12500 yuan / ton, Shanghai cargo negotiation is 11700-12000 yuan / ton, South China Wanhua cargo negotiation is 12400-12500 yuan / ton, Shanghai cargo negotiation is 11700-11900 yuan / ton. Shanghai’s goods fill the market slowly, the distributors’ hands are tight on spot, but the terminal is weak, the market is not easy to trade and invest at a high level, the operators keep the stable shipment, and the supply and demand game.

In terms of market, the aggregate MDI market in North China and Shandong remained stable. The market fundamentals have changed little, the downstream just needs to be depressed and purchase on demand. However, at the beginning of the month, the supply of enterprises to the market is slow, and the enterprises stick to the offer. East China aggregate MDI market range consolidation. The terminal is weak and resists the high price. However, the spot market is limited, and the offer is stable. Under the game of supply and demand, the market trading atmosphere is weak. South China aggregate MDI market range is weak. The market fundamentals have not changed much, but the downstream is in conflict with the high price, the market is not smooth in high-level trading, and the industry is more stable in negotiating shipment.

Industrial chain: raw materials, pure benzene: Asian pure benzene Market: January sales intention is 638-647 USD / ton FOB South Korea. Domestic pure benzene Market: the pure benzene Market in East China continues to rise, and the external market has been uplifted. The negotiation reference is 5350-5450 yuan / ton, some of the sales are slightly higher, and the far monthly negotiation is 5150-5200 yuan / ton, with a certain support for inventory decline.

Aniline: the East China aniline Market is in a stalemate. East China has a shipping schedule this week, the downstream just needs to be depressed, the market is firm and the delivery is limited, and the enterprise keeps stable.

III. future forecast

From the perspective of business community: on the positive side, enterprises have less market volume; suppliers intend to stabilize the market. In terms of bad news, the terminal just needs to be improved to a limited extent; some downstream still have pre inventory, mainly digesting inventory. MDI analysts predict that the short-term domestic MDI market will remain stagnant and stable

I. melamine price trend:

According to the data of the large scale list of business agencies, the market price of melamine fell this week, down 0.54% compared with that at the beginning of the week (October 28), and the mainstream domestic melamine price on the first day was 5400-5700 yuan / ton.

II. Market analysis:

Product: domestic melamine market is weak this week. At present, the mainstream price of melamine market in Xinjiang is around 5000 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of melamine market in Sichuan is around 5550 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of melamine market in Henan is around 5600 yuan / ton. The main quotation of melamine market in Shandong is around 5600 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: the ex factory price (10.28-11.1) of urea in Shandong area in the upper reaches runs smoothly. The upstream liquid ammonia price (10.28-11.1) rose by 1.14%. Downstream papermaking, plate, molding plastics and other industries started in a downturn.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 43rd week of 2019 (10.28-11.1), there are 12 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which there are two kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are dichloromethane (9.58%), sulfuric acid (6.98%) and aniline (4.24%). There are 40 commodities with a decline of 5% or more, accounting for 4.7% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top three products with a decline are DMF (- 7.88%), butadiene (- 6.73%) and acrylic acid (- 5.88%). This week’s average was – 0.61%.

3. Future forecast:

Melamine analysts of the business association believe that the price of raw urea is stable this week, with a small increase in liquid chlorine, which has limited support for melamine cost. The supply of melamine market is sufficient, but the downstream market demand is limited and the transaction follow-up is insufficient. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market will be consolidated and wait-and-see.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the asphalt market price fell in October, and the asphalt price at the end of the month was 3444 yuan / ton, down 5.86% from 3658 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

II. Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the demand of asphalt Market in October shows a weak trend in the peak season. In addition to the weak operation of international oil price in October, the price of asphalt Market in October shows a unilateral downward trend.

Industry chain: in the first ten days of October, the international crude oil market was affected by negative factors such as Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production resumed beyond expectation, and Britain’s negotiation of brexit was in deadlock, the crude oil price continued to decline; in the middle and last ten days of October, OPEC’s oil producing countries may expand the scale of production reduction, as well as the number of active drilling platforms in the United States and the decline of crude oil inventory, which will boost the crude oil market price. In October, international crude oil fell first and then rose, with a slight fall overall. WTI crude oil price fell by 1.52% and Brent crude oil by 2.10%.

In terms of asphalt Market: in October, the demand of asphalt Market in the North did not change significantly, and the weak operation of crude oil price made the price of asphalt market bear a downward trend. In September, the national asphalt production continued to climb to 2.668 million tons, the import volume was basically stable at about 380000 tons, and the refinery operation rate remained at about 61%. In October, refinery asphalt production is expected to increase month on month, and asphalt spot market continues to increase. The road construction in Northeast China is coming to an end, and the delivery price of long-term refining asphalt is down; the asphalt production in Shandong Province is full, and the asphalt price in North China is also declining due to the impact of external resources. On the whole, the market demand after the national day did not show a strong situation, and the market price of asphalt followed the weak trend of crude oil price.

III. future forecast

Lu Xingjun, an asphalt analyst at business club, believes that the peak season of domestic asphalt market is not prosperous in October, and the demand for asphalt will be further reduced by November. In addition, the current weak operation of international crude oil market price, it is expected that the asphalt price will continue to fall steadily in November.

I. price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the zinc price has recently been adjusted by shocks. Since October, the zinc price has been adjusted by shocks at about 19100 yuan / ton, and the zinc price has become stable. As of October 28, the price of zinc was 19276.67 yuan / ton, 1.24% higher than that of October 1, and 176.67 yuan / ton higher than that of 19100 yuan / ton. Zinc price slightly fluctuated in the range.

II. Zinc price trend of LME market futures

As can be seen from the figure, the price of zinc in LME futures market rose steadily from September to October. As of October 25, LME zinc ingot has offered 2468-2503 US dollars / ton, with an average price of 2472 US dollars / ton, up 214 US dollars / ton compared with 2210-2267 US dollars / ton in early September, with an average price of 2258 US dollars / ton. The price of zinc in LME market has increased substantially, which is good for domestic zinc price. The increase of domestic zinc price has increased, and the zinc market in the future is good.

III. futures zinc price trend in Shanghai Futures Market

As can be seen from the figure, the futures price of zinc in Shanghai futures market fluctuated and adjusted from September to October, while the price of zinc rose slightly in October. As of October 25, the quotation of zinc ingot in Shanghai futures market is 18705-18970 yuan / ton, with an average price of 18910 yuan / ton, which is 240 yuan / ton higher than the average price of 18670 yuan / ton in early October. In October, the zinc price of futures in Shanghai futures market recovered slightly, which is good for the domestic spot market, but the good is limited. It remains to be seen whether the upward momentum of Shanghai futures market can continue and affect the upward rebound of the spot market.

IV. future prospects

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of business club, believes that: in the international market, the LME zinc price has been rising steadily in only two months, which is good for the domestic zinc market. In the domestic zinc market, the spot market is still sluggish, but the futures market has recovered since October. Although it can not show that the domestic zinc market has been rising, it is still good for the domestic spot zinc market. Generally speaking, the positive performance of zinc market in the future is enhanced, and the decline of spot zinc market or the early stage of the first reform is followed by the recovery of international zinc market. However, due to the lack of positive performance of zinc market in the near future, it is difficult for zinc price to rise substantially. It is expected that zinc price in the future will fluctuate slightly.

At the beginning of the week, according to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic liquid ammonia market changed little. On the 28th, the increase of liquid ammonia in Shandong was 1.50%, and the main quotation was about 3000 yuan / ton. Most manufacturers in many places reported stable prices, some of which were 50-100 yuan / ton. Some enterprises in Shandong Province increased steadily, with a range of 100 yuan / ton. The price in Northwest China remained stable. At present, local ammonia output is surplus, especially in the western region, where the supply of goods is relatively loose, and the pressure of enterprise shipment is increasing, but the manufacturers with large ammonia output are mainly stable.

The change of liquid ammonia in North China is not big, and the price in the first ten days is on the high side, which leads to the lack of willingness to break through the current ammonia storage price, and the range of increase and decrease is within 100 yuan. Due to the large number of shutdown enterprises in Shanxi, the problems of transportation restrictions still exist, and the lack of downstream demand support, the delivery pressure increases significantly, and the market also has the risk of decline. The main quotation in North China is 2800-2900 yuan / ton. Next.

Due to the impact of production restriction and shutdown in Hebei Province, the amount of ammonia in the region is lower, and some enterprises raise the price by 100 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, but at the same time, the downstream performance is not good. Large downstream enterprises such as China and Afghanistan shutdown lead to weak demand in the downstream, and the enterprise has a large amount of inventory, so the price change is affected by multiple factors, and there is not much change, and the price rise and fall is weak. The mainstream quotation in Hebei Province is 2850-3000 yuan./ Tons.

At the beginning of the week, there was still downward pressure in Central China, and the atmosphere in the field was still not hot. The delivery pressure in Hubei was obvious. Part of Henan was affected by environmental protection pressure, and the price gave more profits. At present, the liquid ammonia market was enveloped in a bad atmosphere, weak operation, and the mainstream quotation in Henan was 2700 yuan / ton up and down.

In the future, the business community believes that the liquid ammonia market may continue to maintain a weak position in the short term, mainly affected by the weak demand in most regions, resulting in overstocking of inventory. The recent market does not exclude the possibility of continuing to explore low.

I. price trend

According to the data in the business club’s large list, the price of pure benzene at the beginning of this week is still weak after a slight recovery. On Friday, the price of pure benzene dropped at 5000-5600 yuan / ton, and on Friday, the price of pure benzene was 5000-5600 yuan / ton, which is basically the same as last week’s price, stable and small.

II. Analysis and comment

1. Products: at the beginning of this week, the pure benzene market was affected by the short squeeze and the spot supply in East China was tight, with the price up. Near the end of the weekend, the shortage of replenishment ended, the market mentality turned to prudence, and the price weakened.

2. Crude oil: this week, the international oil price slowly fell and then rose rapidly. At the beginning of the week, due to various data showing the weak economy, the market was worried about the decrease of crude oil demand, and the mentality was short. U.S. crude oil stocks were down 1.7 million barrels from last week on Wednesday, with news that OPEC may consider increasing production cuts at its December meeting, and oil prices rose rapidly. WTI was up 4.38% compared with last Friday (October 18), Brent was up 3.05%.

3. Related industries: downstream styrene rose after falling this week, up 0.43% compared with last week, with low profit level and weak support due to device problems.

4. External market: at present, the internal and external markets are in order, and the price difference is large; the Asian American arbitrage window is closed, pure benzene merchants feel pressure, and the market mentality is cautious.

III. future forecast

1. Crude oil: in the next week, the oil price may be consolidated at a high level, focusing on OPEC production reduction activities.

2. Domestic market: the supply of coking industry is sufficient, and the impact of short-term low price still exists. The low profit level of downstream styrene, coupled with frequent problems in the plant, leads to demand or affected.

Taking into account, it is expected that the weak trend of pure benzene will continue next week, but port inventory may limit the decline.