I. price trend

According to the data monitored by the business association, the price of domestic potassium nitrate fluctuated and consolidated this week. The price of domestic industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate in this week was 4362.50 yuan / ton, and the current price was 4.90% lower than last year.

II. Market analysis

Product: this week, the domestic potassium nitrate Market was in a shock consolidation, with a general trading atmosphere and a general downstream demand. It was in a stable period of consumption, with a relatively stable supply and demand, and the market was in a consolidation state. As a whole, the operating rate of potassium nitrate manufacturers is at a low level, so the overall inventory of potassium nitrate is at a low level, there is no sales pressure for the time being, and the downstream purchase volume is on the low side for a small amount of replenishment, basically there is no stock situation, and the price of potassium nitrate is volatile and consolidated. Domestic mainstream manufacturers of potassium nitrate offer 4200-4500 yuan / ton.

III. future forecast

According to analysts of potassium nitrate of the business association, the market of potassium nitrate this week is volatile and consolidated. It is over half of October. The traditional peak season of “nine gold and ten silver” still hasn’t improved. Spot trading is tepid and tepid. It is expected that the demand for potassium nitrate will hardly change greatly in the short term. The market may be consolidated and operated.

I. price trend

In this week’s (10.14-10.18), the domestic market of 1 × 1 tin ingot rose in shock. The average price in the domestic market was 138175 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 139887.50 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 1.24%.

On October 20, the tin commodity index was 71.26, unchanged from yesterday, 28.92% lower than the highest point in the cycle, 100.25 (2011-09-05), and 66.26% higher than the lowest point, 42.86 on December 9, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

II. Market trend analysis

Domestic market: this week’s spot tin market bottomed out and rebounded. This week’s U.S. retail data hit a 7-month low. Under this influence, the U.S. dollar index showed a continuous correction. Under the double positive stimulus of the U.S. dollar correction and industry production reduction, the spot market was strongly attacked. Driven by the positive effect of Shanghai tin futures, the price rose by 2000 yuan / ton. As of Friday, the domestic mainstream price was 138000-141000 yuan / ton. 。 In terms of premium and discount: on Friday, the main contract set of Shanghai phase Xi’an Power Co., Ltd. was yunxiping water – Premium 500 yuan / ton, ordinary Yunzi premium 500 yuan / ton – Premium 300 yuan / ton, small brand premium 1000 – Premium 500 yuan / ton.

Major events in the industry: Indonesia’s refined tin exports fell 41% year-on-year in September: Jakarta reported on October 11 that Indonesia’s refined tin exports fell 41% year-on-year in September, according to data released by the Ministry of trade on Friday. According to data, Indonesia’s refined tin exports last month were 5225.26 tons, down from 8854.30 tons in the same period last year. On a monthly basis, refined tin exports in September fell 5% from the previous month.

Nonferrous Industry: market sentiment was mixed this week. At the beginning of this week, China and the United States reached an agreement on the framework of trade negotiations. The process of brexit was accelerated, the market performance was good, and basic metals generally stabilized in a high range of shocks. However, with the release of global economic data in succession, the trend of global economic downturn made the basic metals one after another spit out the weekly gains, showing a high pressure situation.

III. future prospects

Next week, European and American economic data are still relatively concentrated, and it is expected to remain weak. The US dollar is in low-level consolidation, which may support the basic metals. There are long orders delivered in the domestic trade market. Due to the upgrade of value-added tax tickets, the spot performance may be strong. Most of the basic metals will maintain the range shock pattern, and it is temporarily difficult to breed the ability and space for a major breakthrough.

Market Overview

According to the monitoring of bulk data from the business association, the dichloromethane market in Shandong Province remained stable at a high level, and the average price of dichloromethane in Shandong Province was about 2650 yuan / ton in the week.

quotations analysis

Product: this week, the dichloromethane market in Shandong Province has maintained stable operation, the overall trade and investment in the industry is fair, the supply and demand are in a dynamic balance, and the downstream market just needs to be stable. At present, the price of dichloromethane in Shandong is about 2650 yuan / ton; that in East China is about 2750-2950 yuan / ton; that in Jiangxi is about 2950 yuan / ton. In terms of unit start-up, Jinling of Shandong Province started normal operation, Luxi Chemical industry started about 60%, Liwen of Jiangsu Province started normal operation, and Liwen of Jiangxi Province started 50%.

Industry chain: in the upstream, the natural gas market is affected by the weather turning cold, the overall demand is improving, and the price continues to rise, up 2.33% in the week, at present about 3666 yuan / ton; the overall start-up of the liquid chlorine market has declined, but the downstream market is flat, stable in the week, and at present, the enterprise reports about 300 yuan / ton more. In the downstream, the domestic refrigerant market is in the off-season, with poor terminal demand, and there is no obvious improvement in the short term; the pharmaceutical and agricultural market and solvent industry have a good intention of replenishing inventory, with stable demand, which is good for the price support of dichloromethane.

Forecast for future market

According to the data analyst of methane chloride of business association, the overall trading atmosphere of the market is fair at present, the downstream market and traders have a good intention of replenishing inventory, the supply of production enterprises is stable, and the dichloromethane market is expected to operate stably in the short term.

I. price trend

According to the data of the commodity list of the business association, the formaldehyde Market in Shandong rose this week. The average price of formaldehyde at the beginning of the week was 1280.00 yuan / ton, and the average price of formaldehyde at the weekend was 1296.67 yuan / ton, up 1.30%. The current price is down 14.97% year on year.

II. Market analysis

Product: the price of formaldehyde in domestic market has increased. By the end of this week, the main factory quotation in Hebei is about 1100 yuan / ton, the main factory quotation in South China is about 1200 yuan / ton, the main factory quotation in Shandong is 1270 yuan / ton, and the main factory quotation in Jiangsu is 1450 yuan / ton. Shandong Linyi Yinhe annual output of 120000 tons of formaldehyde plant maintenance, formaldehyde content 36.7-37%. Linyi Jinyuan Chemical Co., Ltd. has two formaldehyde production lines with an annual production capacity of 80000 tons, formaldehyde content of 37%, and unit overhaul. Hebei Kaiyue annual output of 400000 tons of formaldehyde plant maintenance. Formaldehyde market supply is affected by environmental protection, formaldehyde manufacturers increase actively, formaldehyde price increases.

Industry chain: after the upstream methanol Festival, the downstream market gradually recovers, some downstream enterprises actively replenish, the inland methanol market shipments smoothly, and the northwest main production area is strong driven, the on-site operators have a positive operating attitude, and the market trend around Bohai Sea and Huaihai sea continues to rise. At the beginning of the month, the price was 2310.00 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, it was 2390.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 3.48%. The demand in the downstream market is relatively stable, supported by favorable supply and demand, and the price of formaldehyde is rising.

III. future forecast

Recently, the stock pressure in the upstream methanol market is not great, the manufacturer’s mentality is firm, the overall market trading atmosphere is positive, the methanol market or price operation is the main, the cost side is well supported, and the downstream market starts to improve, so the formaldehyde analyst of the chemical branch of the business society predicted that the domestic formaldehyde price or consolidation will be the main in the near future.

Price Trend

The domestic aggregate MDI market has a narrow fluctuation. According to the sample data monitored by business associations, the average market price of aggregate MDI was 12800 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week, 13075 yuan/ton at the weekend, a 2.15% rise in the week, a 1.55% rise in the same period of last month, and a 9.93% decrease in the price over the same period of last year.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, the domestic aggregate MDI market fluctuates narrowly. In terms of price, the barrel-loading and discharging negotiation price in Shanghai in East China is from 12000 to 12200 yuan/ton, down 500-300 yuan/ton from last Friday, the PM200 negotiation price is from 13000 to 13200 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton from last Friday, and the aggregate MDI negotiation price in Japan and Korea is around 12000 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton from last Friday. Returning after the festival, the listed price of the factory is lower than the psychological expectation of the traders, the overall market mentality is frustrated, and the terminal demand is still poor. The main reasons are: due to weather in the north, outdoor construction is limited, the digestion speed of terminal raw materials is reduced; the stock of raw materials for end users is still sufficient, and the purchase intention of the market is depressed. Under the guidance of multiple bears, the offer of the manufacturer has fallen repeatedly to let the profit out, but the supply of factories is relatively tight, and the market falls slowly.

On the market side, as of Friday (10.12), the market of aggregate MDI in South China was weak and shocky. The overall atmosphere in the venue was still low and the turnover was very limited. Businessmen continued to let profits to deliver goods at sporadic low prices. At present, the quotation of barreled goods with tickets in Shanghai refers to 12000-12200 yuan/ton, and the quotation of barreled goods with tickets in PM200 refers to 13100-13300 yuan/ton. East China Polymerization MDI market is vulnerable to shocks, on-site inquiries to buy gas is not good, follow-up business downturn, business negotiations on low-end shipments, sporadic low prices have been heard. At present, the quotation of barreled goods with tickets in Shanghai refers to 12000-12200 yuan/ton, and the quotation of PM200 barreled goods with tickets in Shanghai refers to 13000-13200 yuan/ton. North China Polymerization MDI market is weak and tidy, on-site trading and buying gas is low, trading is rarely heard, traders talk about low-end shipments, low prices are also heard. At present, Shanghai barreled discharging quotation refers to 12000-12200 yuan/ton, and PM200 barreled discharging quotation refers to 13000 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene: domestic pure benzene Market rose. Outside prices rose in an all-round way, while U.S. outward prices supported domestic selling prices. The price of crude oil rose when a tanker from the Iranian National Tanker Company caught fire near Jeddah after being hit by “foreign objects”. Domestic market prices went up, but downstream styrene fell and downstream demand for pure benzene remained poor. It is tentatively estimated that the short-term pure benzene market range is weak.

Aniline: in the week, domestic aniline Market negotiation was stable, Tianji device was restarted, Jinmao was about to restart, after market supply increased, it is expected that aniline negotiation will be stable in the near future. The mainstream reference price in Shandong and North China is 7760 yuan/ton, while the mainstream market price in East China is about 7800 yuan/ton. (Note: The rise and fall of factories and markets in North China are counted according to the rise and fall of cash.)
3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperatives Viewpoint: At present, the factory controls the supply, but the northern thermal insulation plant is gradually ending, and the terminal is more ready, the market delivery or maintenance just needs to follow up, the overall mentality of the field operators is not good, individual profitability is safe. Business Cooperatives aggregate MDI analysts expect that the domestic aggregate MDI market will be weak and volatile next week, focusing on factory supply policy and market turnover.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, as of October 12, the latest domestic price of cyclohexanone was 8223 yuan/ton, which was 0.60% lower than the same period last month and 36.67% lower than the same period last year. The domestic market of cyclohexanone is mainly narrow and low.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic market of cyclohexanone continues to decline, mainstream factories downward quotation, but the interest of downstream orders is not high, market participants are empty of the future market mentality, low-end negotiations. Pay attention to the plant dynamics, and expect short-term domestic cyclohexanone market or weak operation.

Industry chain: pure benzene: domestic pure benzene market is rising.  Outside prices rose in an all-round way, while U.S. outward prices supported domestic selling prices. The price of crude oil rose when a tanker from the Iranian National Tanker Company caught fire near Jeddah after being hit by “foreign objects”. Domestic market prices went up, but downstream styrene fell and downstream demand for pure benzene remained poor. It is tentatively estimated that the short-term pure benzene market range is weak.

Caprolactam: The domestic caprolactam market continues to be weak, the demand is weak, the initiative of the polymerization plant is not good, the purchase mood of raw materials is cautious, the market is bullish, the overall trading performance is light, the short-term domestic caprolactam market is still weak finishing, operation suggestions pay attention to terminal receipt mood changes and factory dynamics. East China solid market mainstream offer 12500-13000 yuan/ton nearby, cash delivery. East China liquids market transactions in the vicinity of 1240-12500 yuan/ton, acceptance delivered.
3. Future Market Forecast

Cyclohexanone market is weak, factories negotiate with each other, rumors of price reduction, prudent purchasing downstream, general market atmosphere, business analysts predict that the short-term cyclohexanone market is weak.

I. Market Review

According to statistics, the domestic fluorite market price declined in September. The price at the end of the month was 2866.67 yuan/ton, down 6.30% from 3056.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, up 5.68% year on year. Recently, the fluorite price has continued to decline.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic fluorite prices declined in September, mainly due to the unbalanced domestic supply and demand, the normal domestic fluorite supply, but the downstream hydrofluoric acid and refrigerant industry for fluorite demand has declined, the end of the peak season of the refrigerant industry, fluorite market is poor, and fluorite plant start-up rate maintained high, but the downstream demand situation is general, the spot supply of fluorite in the field. Adequate, the price of fluorite on the farm is lower, and near the National Day holiday, some downstream factories in the northern region limit production, the demand for fluorite on the upstream is weakening, and the price of fluorite is constantly falling. By the end of the month, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia area was 2600-2900 yuan / ton. In Fujian area, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder negotiation was 2700-2900 yuan / ton, while the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan area was 2700-3000 yuan / ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi area was 2700-3000 yuan / ton, and the price of fluorite continued to decline.

Industry chain: In September, the market price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite was lower. The factory price of hydrofluoric acid was 1,050 yuan/ton at the end of the month. In September, the overall decline of hydrofluoric acid was 6.34%. The downstream market price of hydrofluoric acid was a big negative factor in the fluorite market, and the domestic fluorite market was affected lower. Recent downstream refrigerant market trading market is poor, domestic refrigerant R22 market shocks down, from the market supply point of view, refrigerant R22 market continues to be weak, manufacturers reduce the start-up load, market supply capacity has decreased, inventory pressure has been cushioned. On the demand side, downstream air-conditioning manufacturers’overhaul showed no increase in demand, and the price of domestic large enterprises fell to 1250-14000 yuan/ton. The domestic market price of R134a has declined, the start-up rate of production enterprises has remained low, the market demand for refrigerants has decreased, and manufacturers mainly export their products. However, on-site transaction prices continue to decline, merchants purchase on demand, the end of the peak season, downstream terminal demand only declined, hydrofluoric acid market prices declined. However, the on-site transaction price is lower and the merchants purchase on demand. Recently, due to the normal supply of goods and poor downstream demand, the price trend of fluorite market continues to decline.

Industry: In September, the upstream fluorite industry started construction in general, hydrofluoric acid prices continued to decline, fluorite products on the spot supply is sufficient, the market is poor, on-site inventory increased, fluorite market prices fell.

3. Future Market Forecast

In the future, the domestic fluorite plant has started normal recently, the market price of downstream hydrofluoric acid industry hasn’t improved, and the refrigeration industry has not improved. Chen Ling, a fluorite analyst at business associations, thinks that the price of fluorite will be lower slightly in the later period, or about 2800 yuan/ton.

On September 29, the fluorite commodity index was 100.58, unchanged from yesterday, down 21.11% from the peak of 127.49 points in the cycle (2019-01-03), and up 104.39% from the low of 49.21 points on December 18, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, domestic fluorite prices fluctuated at a low level, with an average price of 2866.67 yuan/ton as of 29 days. Recently, domestic fluorite plants started to operate normally, mines and flotation plants started to operate normally, fluorite supply was sufficient, and hydrofluoric acid prices in the downstream maintained a low level in the near future. For fluorite market, purchasing on demand, fluorite went in the field. The goods are in poor condition and the fluorite market price is stable for the time being. Recent downstream installation start-up situation is general, fluorite spot supply is sufficient, terminal downstream demand is not improving, resulting in weak market prices.  As of the 29th, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia is 2600-2800 yuan/ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder negotiations in Fujian is 2600-2900 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan is 2600-2900 yuan/ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi is 2600-3000 yuan/ton. The price trend of fluorite remains low.

The market price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite maintained a low trend. The domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid was 10050 yuan/ton as of the 29th day. The low market price of hydrofluoric acid has a negative impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, the recent start-up of hydrofluoric acid plant is general, the demand for fluorite has weakened and the price of fluorite has declined. Recent downstream refrigerant market trading market is general, domestic refrigerant R22 market shocks down, from the market supply point of view, refrigerant R22 market continues to be weak, manufacturers reduce the start-up load, market supply capacity has decreased, inventory pressure has been buffered. On the demand side, downstream air-conditioning manufacturers’overhaul showed no increase in demand, and the price of domestic large enterprises fell to 1250-14000 yuan/ton. The domestic market price of R134a is declining. At present, the market of R134a has entered the off-season. The downstream demand is relatively weak. The start-up rate of many R134a manufacturers remains low. However, on-site transaction prices continue to decline, merchants purchase on demand, the end of the peak season, downstream terminal demand only declined but not increased, and the price affected by the fluorite market is at a low level.

Generally speaking, the market of downstream refrigerant industry is declining, and the supply of fluorite market is abundant, and the demand of downstream refrigerant industry is not good. Chen Ling, an analyst of business associations, believes that the price of fluorite market may maintain a low trend.

Price Trend

According to the data of the business association’s list, pure benzene showed a downward trend this week. Monday’s price was 582-5900 yuan/ton, and Friday’s price was 5600-5900 yuan/ton. Compared with last Friday’s, this week’s pure benzene fell by 1.19%.

II. Analytical Review

1. Products: Sinopec’s listed price this week is firm, at 5900 yuan per ton. Last week, the Saudi Arabian incident led to a surge in crude oil and pure benzene, benefiting the domestic market and pure benzene.  The impact of this week’s events has subsided. Although the inventory of Zhouzhuangdong Port declined slightly, some factories were parked near the lower reaches of the Eleventh century, and environmental protection requirements caused certain restrictions on transportation. The demand for pure benzene was reduced, and the price of hydrobenzene in Shandong Province began to decline.

2. Crude oil: Last week, international oil prices rose by more than 4% due to the Saudi Arabian incident. This week, the impact subsided, and international oil prices shook downward. WTI fell by 2.82% and Brent by 3.12% compared with last Friday.

3. Related industries: Downstream styrene showed a downward trend of 0.95% this week; downstream aniline rose 3.14% this week, benefiting pure benzene.

4. External market: This week, due to the negative impact of crude oil prices, the external market shocks downward, and the support surface for domestic pure benzene decreases.

3. Future Market Forecast

1. Crude oil: next week, international oil prices will return to shock range consolidation.

2. Domestic market: Likon: The recent Blue Sky Defense War has a strong influence, transportation constraints hinder the good market of pure benzene. Advantages: Port stocks in East China are declining and imports of pure benzene are on the low side.

After the festival, downstream or releasing demand, and downstream styrene futures listed, still need to focus on. Considering comprehensively, pure benzene or rigid operation is expected to dominate in the near future.

Price Trend

This week (9.16-9.20) the domestic butadiene market rose sharply.  Business Association monitoring showed that the domestic butadiene market price was 10401 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and 11 490 yuan/ton at the weekend. The domestic butadiene price rose by 10.47% in the week, rising by 16.05% annually and falling by 7.20% year on year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: This week (9.16-9.20), the domestic butadiene manufacturers’prices have risen sharply. Sinopec’s East China price has increased by 1200 yuan/ton to 1180 yuan/ton; Fushun Petrochemical’s transaction price has risen to 11900 yuan/ton. During the week, due to the equipment failure of Northeast manufacturers, the export volume of goods was shrinking. In addition, the peripheral news area boosted the short-term surge of crude oil and commodities at the beginning of the week, and the supply side and news side boosted the mentality of the merchants. Northern spot prices have been greatly increased several times, while the spot resources in East China are scarce, and the range of the market has been rising mainly. Short-term prices soared sharply, the downstream part of the surge mood is obvious, further driving up the market. Although the downstream rubber market has not increased significantly, butadiene spot market is short of supply, low-price supply is difficult to find, some just need passive high-price replenishment.

Enterprises: Sinopec East China Butadiene increased its supply price by 1200 yuan/ton to 1180 yuan/ton in a week; Liaotong Chemical Company on Monday (9.16) exported 104 tons of raw materials, the base price increased by 400 yuan/ton to 103100 yuan/ton, and the transaction price increased by 11110 yuan/ton; Fushun Petrochemical Company sold 480 tons of butadiene in a week, and the transaction price increased to 1190 yuan./ The Shenhua Ning coal 64,000 tons/year butadiene plant is in normal operation, the export price is 11,420 yuan/ton, the ring ratio is 1,750 yuan/ton; the low-load operation of the Jiutai butadiene oxidative dehydrogenation unit in Inner Mongolia, the listing price is 12,000 yuan/ton, the ring ratio is 1,800 yuan/ton, and it is discussed separately.

Industry chain: Downstream synthetic rubber, styrene-butadiene rubber, this week (9.16-9.20), domestic styrene-butadiene rubber factory prices rose 200 yuan/ton, dry rubber 1502 billed price 10800-10900 yuan/ton, 200 yuan/ton higher than last period; styrene-butadiene rubber 1712 billed price 9600-9950 yuan/ton, 200 yuan/ton higher than last period. This week, the domestic butadiene-styrene plant started with a load of 6.1%: Tianjin Lugang, Hangzhou Yibang and Fuxiang chemical butadiene-styrene rubber plant continued to shut down; Jilin chemical butadiene-styrene plant operated on two lines, Zhejiang vitamin-styrene plant operated on one line, Shenhua chemical resumed on two lines, Pristone butadiene-styrene plant operated at 40% of the low load, Lanzhou Petrochemical Company operated on two lines. The second line of butadiene-styrene plant operated, the third line of Fushun Petrochemical Company operated, and the butadiene-styrene plant of Qilu Petrochemical Company operated normally.

Cis-butadiene rubber: This week (9.16-9.20), the domestic mainstream sales company Gaoshun cis-butadiene rubber factory prices have risen; by the end of the draft, the domestic mainstream factory price of Gaoshun cis-butadiene rubber rose to 11 400-11 600 yuan/ton range, an increase of 400 yuan/ton. This week, the start-up rate of domestic high cis-butadiene rubber plant was maintained near 44%. Dushanzi and Lande Shuntine plant are scheduled to restart. The biochemical cis-butadiene plant is restarting one after another. Qixiang and Hop Shuntine plant continue to stop, so the start-up rate of high cis-butadiene is still at a relatively low level in the cycle.

3. Future Market Forecast

On the positive side, the spot resources in East China are relatively tight; the downstream part just needs to catch up with the rising sentiment; domestic suppliers have no inventory pressure for the time being. On the bearish side, the downstream industry has limited follow-up; the external market has not been significantly upward for the time being; downstream profits are under pressure. Supported by the supply side, the butadiene market is basically in a good direction. In addition, the market of butadiene soars sharply under the influence of some man-made operational factors in this cycle. Short-term downstream synthetic rubber with limited strength, with the rapid rise of butadiene market, business mentality gradually cautious, with the downstream chasing atmosphere cooling, high-price transactions in the market is difficult to sustain the current situation, but short-term domestic manufacturer inventory has maintained a low level, supply facing the market there is still some support. Under the combined influence, business community butadiene analysts expect the butadiene market to remain relatively strong next week, but advise cautious attention to the trading situation.