1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, this week’s domestic soda ash market is mainly stable. The average domestic market price from the beginning of the week to the end of the week in East China is about 1583.33 yuan / ton. On March 19, the commodity index of light soda ash was 81.20, flat with yesterday, down 31.10% from 117.86 (2017-11-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 28.58% from 63.15, the lowest point on November 18, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, the domestic soda price is basically stable. The weak market of soda ash in Southwest China has been sorted out. The main quotation of light alkali is 1500-1550 yuan / ton, and that of heavy alkali is 1550-1600 yuan / ton. The overall trend of soda ash in East China is temporarily stable. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1350-1550 yuan / ton, and the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash is 1500-1700 yuan / ton. The downstream is mainly rigid and requires procurement. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be more stable in the short term. In North China, the market price of soda ash in narrow range is about 1570-1600 yuan / ton for light soda ash and 1700-1800 yuan / ton for heavy soda ash. The actual transaction is relatively flexible. It is expected that the market price of soda ash in narrow range will be operated in the short term. The domestic soda ash market trend is stable, and the market fundamentals continue to be weak.

Demand: the domestic soda ash market as a whole keeps stable operation, the phenomenon of supply exceeding demand continues, and the enterprise’s delivery is poor. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 10th week of 2020 (3.9-3.13), there is a total of one rising commodity, three falling commodities and one rising and falling commodity. The main commodities rising were hydrochloric acid (1.37%); the main commodities falling were caustic soda (- 4.98%), calcium carbide (- 0.36%), PVC (- 0.20%). This week’s average was – 0.83%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the soda ash analyst of the business association, the support of soda ash demand is still weak, the overall market trading is poor, the enterprises mainly ship at stable prices, the demand performance is average, and the market transaction is flat. It is comprehensively expected that the soda ash market will still maintain weak and stable market operation next week. See the downstream market demand for details.

1、 Price trend of epichlorohydrin:

(Figure: P value curve of epichlorohydrin product)

2、 Market analysis:

Product: epichlorohydrin market fell this week, according to the data in the large list of business agencies. The inventory of epichlorohydrin manufacturers was under pressure, the downstream demand did not improve significantly, the contradiction between supply and demand was prominent, and the market trading atmosphere was light. As of the 15th, the average price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 9866.67 yuan / ton, down 6.03% compared with the beginning of the week and 30.35% compared with January 1st. On the 15th, the main quotation of epichlorohydrin market in China was about 8900-10000 yuan / ton.

The epichlorohydrin commodity index on March 15 was 69.68, unchanged from yesterday, 47.89% lower than 133.71 (2019-10-29), the highest point in the cycle, and 48.73% higher than 46.85, the lowest point on September 7, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Industry chain: the market price of propylene in Shandong region in the upstream (3.9-3.13) fell by 6.60% this week. On the 13th, the market turnover was 6100-6650 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price was 6100-6150 yuan / ton. Influenced by the OPEC meeting a few days ago, international crude oil plummeted continuously. Influenced by the hope of economic stimulus plan and the reduction of US producers’ spending on the 10th, American crude oil jumped 8% again. On the 11th, international crude oil fell slightly, and on the 12th, crude oil fell sharply again. Due to the low production and inventory before propylene, the decline in the early stage is not significant, but the crude oil price fluctuates greatly. It is expected that the propylene price will be affected by crude oil in the later stage, showing a significant downward trend. On the 13th, the price of downstream epoxy resin and dual raw materials fell, the cost side was insufficient, the terminal demand was light, and the buyer’s follow-up was limited.

3、 Future forecast:

According to the epichlorohydrin analysts of the business club, the price of raw propylene is weak in the near future, and the transaction in the downstream epoxy resin market is light. It is expected that in the short term, the epichlorohydrin market will be mainly consolidated and operated, and more attention should be paid to the cost and demand information guidance.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate this week is temporarily stable. As of the end of the week, the market price of domestic ammonium nitrate is 2380 yuan / ton, which is the same as the price at the beginning of the week, up 17.05% year on year. On March 12, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 125.26, unchanged from yesterday, a record high in the cycle, 61.90% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

This week, the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market in China is temporarily stable. The operation of domestic ammonium nitrate plants is normal. The on-site supply of ammonium nitrate is stable, and the price of manufacturers is mainly stable. In the near future, the on-site supply of goods is normal, but the recent transportation is limited, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable. In the near future, the market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is general, the downstream is purchased on demand, the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers are limited to start work, and the market price of ammonium nitrate remains high. Up to now, the negotiation mainstream in Shaanxi is 2300-2400 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 2400-2500 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei is 2400-2600 yuan / ton.

This week, the price trend of concentrated nitric acid in China was temporarily stable. The weekend price was 1500 yuan / ton. This week, the price trend was stable. Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 1500 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe offers 1450 yuan / ton; Shandong helitai offers 1700 yuan / ton. Anhui Aodeli offers 1550 yuan / ton; Wenshui County synthetic chemical offers 1630 yuan / ton. In the near future, the parking rate of domestic maintenance equipment is relatively high, the supply of concentrated nitric acid market is less, the situation of goods in the field is general, the price trend of nitric acid market is stable, the stable price of nitric acid is the good influence of the market of ammonium nitrate, and the market price of ammonium nitrate remains high.

Since March in the upstream liquid ammonia Market, the domestic liquid ammonia market has continued to rebound, especially in the northern region. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of the domestic liquid ammonia market has increased significantly compared with that at the end of February. Since the rebound began in late February, the liquid ammonia market has started to rebound, which experienced a short period of repair. In the week of March 9, the liquid ammonia market has continued to rise, and dealers have adjusted the price range Both frequency and frequency have increased. According to the statistics of the business agency, the increase of liquid ammonia in the first half of the month has exceeded 15%. In particular, prices in Shandong Province led the domestic market up. In the week of the 13th, manufacturers in Shandong and Hebei repeatedly raised their factory prices by 300-400 yuan / ton. Under this market, liquid ammonia has risen by 500 yuan / ton. The overall price of liquid ammonia in the upper reaches of the market has increased substantially, while the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market has been temporarily stable.

In the near future, the downstream demand is limited, but the market price of raw materials continues to rise, which has certain cost support for the market price of ammonium nitrate. Ammonium nitrate analysts of the business association believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate may maintain high volatility in the later period.

1、 Acrylic price trend:

(Figure: p-value curve of acrylic acid product source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

2、 Market analysis:

Product: according to the data of the business club’s large list, the average price of acrylic acid enterprises as of March 6 was 7200 yuan / ton, up 0.47% compared with Monday, and down 10% compared with the same period of three months. On June 6, the main price of acrylic acid in China was about 7000-7400 yuan / ton. In the near future, the price of raw material propylene has increased, the cost support has been strengthened, the industry is still at a low level, and the downstream demand is gradually large, and the price of acrylic acid is rising steadily. On June 6, the price of acrylic acid in Wanhua chemical and Petrochemical Co., Ltd. remained stable, mainly for contracts and stable customers. The price of acrylic acid was 7000 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: the market price of propylene in Shandong region in the upstream rose this week (3.2-3.6). In March, the decline trend of Shandong propylene price in the early stage of reform began. On the first day, the prices of some enterprises rose slightly. On the second day, the prices of the whole line rose slightly. On the third and the fourth day, the prices of most enterprises generally rose. On the fifth day, the prices of some enterprises increased by about 50-100 yuan / ton. On the sixth day, the prices of individual enterprises fluctuated up and down. The current market transactions are still between 6600-6800 yuan / ton, and the mainstream prices are between 6600-6650 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 9th week of 2020 (3.2-3.6), there are 23 kinds of commodities in the chemical sector, among which there are 2 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 2.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are sulfur (8.38%), sulfuric acid (7.78%) and propylene (4.36%). There are 30 commodities with a decline of 5% or more, accounting for 1.1% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top three products with a decline are epichlorohydrin (- 6.28%), mixed xylene (- 4.46%) and ethanol (- 4.39%). This week’s average was – 0.35%.

3、 Future forecast:

According to the acrylic analyst of the business association, the industry is still at a low level. With the gradual recovery of downstream demand and the increase of just need procurement, it is expected that the acrylic market will stabilize in the short term, with more attention to the change of raw material propylene price.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, as of March 5, the average price of n-butanol was 5466.67 yuan / ton (including tax). At present, the reference average price is basically the same as that at the end of February (February 29). On March 4, the n-butanol (industrial grade) commodity index was 44.57, unchanged from yesterday, down 55.43% from the cycle’s highest point of 100.00 (2011-10-08), and up 49.11% from the lowest point of 29.89 on November 30, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Products: since the end of February and the beginning of March, the domestic n-butanol market has been in stable operation for the time being, and the trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market is fair. The downstream users have started to gradually improve, bargain hunting and replenishment, and the factory inventory has been reduced. At present, the market volume in March is not significantly higher than that at the end of February. The new single negotiation is common, and the negotiation atmosphere is flat. The price of core users supplied by mainstream factories is slightly low, and the downstream raw material inventory is slowly digested. There is a lot of pressure on the market to offer at high prices. Up to March 5, the atmosphere of n-butanol market activity is general, supported by costs, and the market is mainly in stable operation. The quotation of n-butanol of Luxi Chemical Industry is stable temporarily, and the reference quotation is about 5500 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of Shandong lihuayi n-butanol is temporarily stable, with reference to 5300 yuan / ton; the ex factory quotation of Wanhua chemical n-butanol is 5500 yuan / ton in North China, 5700 yuan / ton in East China and 5850 yuan / ton in South China.

Industry chain: in March, the decline trend of Shandong propylene price in the early stage of the reform began. On the first day, some enterprises’ prices rose slightly. On the second day, the prices rose slightly. On the third day, most enterprises generally rose. On the fourth day, the prices also increased by about 50-100 yuan / ton. At present, the market turnover is between 6600-6700 yuan / ton, and the mainstream prices are around 6600 yuan / ton. At present, crude oil and polypropylene futures are rising and supply is tight, which makes the downstream procurement active. However, the production and inventory of propylene plant are low, and the market supply is short. It is expected that the price of propylene may rise.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of the data analyst of the business agency, the high price negotiation of the n-butanol market is limited at present, and it is expected that the low-end consolidation and operation of the market will be dominated in the short term.

According to statistics, the price of phthalic anhydride in China fell sharply in February. As of the end of the month, the price of phthalic anhydride from o-phthalic anhydride was 5700 yuan / ton, down 7.69% from 6175 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, down 18.18% year on year. In recent years, the price of phthalic anhydride in China has been falling continuously, the demand of plasticizer industry has not improved, and the market of phthalic anhydride market has been depressed.

In February, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride continued to decline. Affected by the epidemic situation, the transportation of chemicals was limited, and the inventory of some phthalic anhydride manufacturers started to increase, resulting in poor delivery. In East China, the market price of phthalic anhydride and phthalic anhydride has fallen, downstream factories have shut down a lot, factory inventory pressure has increased, and high-end transactions have been blocked. Recently, the factory inventory has increased, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride has declined. In East China, the main flow of negotiation for neighboring process and naphthalene process is 5500-5800 yuan / ton and 5300-5500 yuan / ton respectively; in North China, the main quotation for phthalic anhydride market is 5400-5800 yuan / ton. Most of the manufacturers in the site have price callback, the downstream construction is not high, the procurement is based on demand, and the wait-and-see mentality is strong. The domestic phthalic anhydride plant is under normal operation, and the spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the site is sufficient, in addition to phthalic anhydride The demand for phthalic anhydride is not good, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride is declining.

In the near future, the price of ox2 upstream product of phthalic anhydride fell in February. By the end of the month, the price of ortho benzene was 5800 yuan / ton, down 7.79% in February. The price of imported ortho benzene in port area fell. The price of external ortho benzene fell. The price of imported ortho benzene fell. The price of ortho benzene in port area was negative for the future market. The actual transaction price was subject to negotiation. It was discussed in detail and affected by the drop in the price of ortho benzene upstream raw material The market price of phthalic anhydride fell.

The downstream DOP market price fell slightly. The DOP price fell by about 1% in February. In addition, the price of raw materials isooctanol fell in shock. The cost of DOP raw materials fell. The DOP enterprises started work normally. The operating rate dropped. During the anti epidemic period, logistics was limited, transportation was difficult, and DOP manufacturers’ inventory was high. The price of DOP fell, the purchasing enthusiasm of customers was poor, the price of downstream PVC fluctuated and remained stable, the equipment of PVC enterprises started at a low level, and the mainstream price of DOP market was about 7100-7500 yuan / ton. In the future, the downward pressure of DOP is still there, the upward momentum is increased, the price trend in the downstream is slightly down, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is greatly affected.

On the whole, the market of plasticizer industry chain is in a downturn, and the prices of DOP products from the upstream raw material o-benzene to the downstream have declined to varying degrees. In addition, the recent crude oil prices continue to fall, and the downstream petrochemical products are under pressure. It is expected that the price of phthalic anhydride market will rise heavily in the later period, and the slight drop in prices may be small and large.

1、 Price trend

This week, the domestic liquefied gas (Shandong) market was stable first and then fell. On February 24, the average price of liquefied gas market was 4050 yuan / ton, and on February 28, the average price was 3700 yuan / ton, with a decline of 8.64% during the period. The price was 7.88% lower than that of the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Products: the liquefied gas market fell back after continuous upward trend. As of February 28, the price of liquefied gas from Sinopec Guangzhou Chemical Co., Ltd. was 4010 yuan / ton, that of Sinopec Jingmen Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was 4400 yuan / ton, that of Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was 3920 yuan / ton, that of Sinopec Qingdao Refining Chemical Co., Ltd. was 3800 yuan / ton, and that of Shandong Jinjin Co., Ltd The factory price of liquefied gas of Chenghua group is 3750 yuan / ton, and that of Sinopec Shijiazhuang refining and chemical company is 3550 yuan / ton. The price of Sinopec Luoyang Petrochemical LPG is 3850 yuan / ton.

In the early stage, the overall demand of liquefied gas market was good, and the price went up one after another, with a large increase. But this week, the market’s rise slowed down and prices recovered. International crude oil fell sharply this week due to the warming of the global epidemic. In the early stage, with the price rising to a high level, the downstream resistance mentality has increased. At present, the terminal resumption has not been fully recovered. With the completion of the downstream periodic replenishment, the stock has been withdrawn from the market and consumed. The market transaction atmosphere has been weakened compared with that in the early stage. The manufacturer’s shipment is not smooth, and the stock has increased gradually. From the 26th, the price has fallen.

Saudi Aramco issued CP in February, with propane of 505 US dollars / ton, down 60 US dollars / ton compared with the previous month; butane of 545 US dollars / ton, down 45 US dollars / ton compared with the previous month.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are two kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the eighth week of 2020 (2.24-2.28), among which the top two are methanol (0.50%) and coking coal (0.45%). There are 13 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 4 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are WTI crude oil (- 11.78%), Brent crude oil (- 11.57%), and liquefied gas (- 8.64%). This week’s average was – 3.14%.

3、 Future forecast

At present, the market supply is still running at a low level. Although the downstream resumption of work has increased, it has not been fully recovered. The downstream has withdrawn from the market and consumed inventory after periodic replenishment. The delivery atmosphere of the manufacturer is obviously weaker than that of the earlier stage, the inventory is gradually increasing, the firmness situation is not there, and the price is reasonable. It is expected that the demand will increase next week, and the downstream will start to replenish periodically, so that the price may stop falling and rise slightly.

1、 Price trend

On February 28, the NBR commodity index was 73.31, down 0.79 points from yesterday, 40.72% from 123.67 (2017-02-20), the highest point in the cycle, and 42.02% higher than 51.62, the lowest point on March 8, 2016 (Note: since 2012-09-01). According to the monitoring of the business association, the price of NBR was 16200 yuan / ton at the beginning of February and 15733 yuan / ton at the end of the month, which was 2.88% lower than that at the beginning of the month.

2、 Market trend analysis

First, the sharp drop in crude oil dragged down butadiene and acrylonitrile, the raw materials of nitrile. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of butadiene in China fell sharply, with the price at the beginning of February at 8056 yuan / ton and the price at the end of February at 6223 yuan / ton, down 22.75% overall. On the other hand, the factory price of Shanghai Secco in East China fell from 10400 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 8950 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 13.94% as a whole.

Secondly, affected by the “new crown” epidemic prevention and control, especially in the first and middle of February, on the one hand, domestic traffic control is relatively strict, and the circulation of production materials is not smooth. On the other hand, the domestic downstream enterprises’ resumption of production has been delayed, and the demand after the festival is less than that of the previous years. According to the business association, by the middle of February, the return rate of the downstream rubber hose and belt industry enterprises was only within 40% or even lower, and the area of return to work was gradually increased near the end of the month, and the return rate in East China was relatively high. Therefore, the overall turnover in February was light, which was negative for NBR.

Finally, in February, the overall operating rate of NBR industry in China was relatively low around 60-70%, and the supply side of NBR formed a certain support. According to the understanding of the business agency, the normal start-up of domestic Lanzhou Petrochemical, Zhenjiang Nandi and other nitrile units, the low load start-up of Jinpu, and the shutdown and maintenance of shunze nitrile in the first and middle of February. As of the end of February, n41e, 3305e and 3308e had reported 15000 yuan / ton, 15500 yuan / ton and 15600 yuan / ton respectively.

3、 Future prospects

Business analysts believe that at present, on the one hand, crude oil, butadiene, acrylonitrile prices are still low, especially the risk of crude oil decline is still in. On the other hand, domestic enterprises will gradually expand the resumption of work, and later demand will increase. In terms of upstream and downstream conditions, the trend of NBR in the later stage is unclear, and good domestic resumption of work will drive up the price, but if crude oil continues to fall sharply, it will drag the entire industrial chain.

1、 Price trend

According to the data in the business club’s bulk list, the domestic isomeric xylene market gradually stabilized this week, and as of Friday, it was flat compared with last Friday.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Product: affected by the stable rebound of international crude oil price and the rising price of isomeric xylene in Korean market, and the impact of the gradual improvement of market demand, the price of isomeric xylene in China has gradually stabilized. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 5400 yuan / ton.

2、 Industrial chain:

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, the international oil price continued to rebound this week. As of Friday, Brent rose 5.71%, Brent futures rose 4.42%, WTI futures rose 2.98%, and Dubai futures rose 3.01%.

Downstream, in PX market, the price of domestic market is about 6300 yuan / ton this week, and the latest price of external market is about 732 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea and 750 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that PX market price will maintain a stable trend next week. In terms of PTA market, the spot market price of PTA in China is about 4450 yuan / ton, and the external market price is about 571 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that PTA market will remain stable in the short term. In the ox market, Sinopec’s price of o-benzene was flat at 5800 yuan / ton, and the external price of o-benzene was about 745 US dollars / ton fob in South Korea, which is expected to maintain a stable trend in the future.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: next week, we will continue to focus on the trend of crude oil and the progress of downstream enterprises’ resumption. On the whole, it is expected that the price of isomeric xylene in the international crude oil market and South Korea market will be subject to shock correction, but under the expectation that the domestic enterprises will gradually enter the resumption period and the market demand will gradually improve, the price of isomeric xylene in the domestic market will be subject to slight shock next week.

1、 Price trend:

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of caustic soda in Shandong market at the beginning of the week was 600 yuan / ton, while the average price in Shandong market at the end of the week was 602.5 yuan / ton, up 0.42. The caustic soda commodity index on February 20 was 86.69, unchanged from yesterday, down 58.09% from 206.87 (2017-11-14), the highest point in the cycle, and up 18.32% from 73.27, the lowest point on March 29, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: the overall consolidation trend of caustic soda price this week is mainly. The price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda market in Shandong Province is stable, with a quotation of about 580-650 yuan / ton. The caustic soda enterprises have devices to stop, the market supply is reduced, and the trading atmosphere is flat. It is expected that the trend of narrow consolidation will run in the short term. The caustic soda market in Jiangsu Province is stable for the time being, with the main stream of 32% of the caustic soda market of 630-740 yuan / ton. The market is relatively stable with low load operation and weak trading. The start-up of caustic soda enterprises is still in the process of load reduction production, and the downstream demand side is general. The owners are more cautious and wait-and-see attitude.

Industrial chain: due to the impact of the epidemic situation in the downstream, the enterprises are not enough to start work, and the demand for caustic soda is limited. Logistics has not been fully recovered, and enterprises have difficulties in shipping. The overall demand for caustic soda is not much.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the sixth week of 2020 (2.10-2.14), there are 1 rising commodity, 1 falling commodity, and 3 rising and falling commodities. The main commodities rising were caustic soda (2.16%); the main commodities falling were PVC (- 1.10%). This week’s average was 0.21%.

According to analysts of business cooperatives, transportation has not yet recovered, and the delivery pressure of caustic soda enterprises is still on. At present, flexible delivery is the main mode of delivery, construction in other regions has not been significantly improved, and the overall operation of the domestic market is flat. It is expected that the consolidation and operation of domestic caustic soda market will be dominated.