1、 Price trend

This week, the lead market (2.10-2.14) continued to rise. The average price in the domestic market was 14012.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 14225 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a weekly increase of 1.52%.

On February 16, the lead commodity index was 86.57, unchanged from yesterday, down 35.40% from 134.01 (2016-11-29), the highest point in the cycle, and up 16.00% from 74.63, the lowest point on March 19, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Market trend analysis

Domestic market: this week, Lunzhou lead rose by 3.55%, while Shanghai lead fluctuated broadly between 13800-14400, with a weekly cumulative increase of more than 1.5%. The spot market continues to rise this week driven by futures prices. Affected by transportation and delayed resumption of work, there are only a limited number of manufacturers currently operating. The overall supply of goods in the spot market is relatively tight, with fewer quotations from traders. The main market supply is Shanghai Jinsha lead, Guangdong Nanhua lead, Hunan Jingui and a few other brands, with fewer transactions. The return to work of renewable lead enterprises was delayed this week. Except for the regular production of some large enterprises in the market, other enterprises are all off work.

3、 Future prospects

After the completion of next week’s delivery, because the overall supply is still increasing and the consumption is afraid that under the premise that the logistics cannot be fully opened, even if the resumption of work is gradually increasing everywhere, the activity of the spot will not be substantially improved, and the futures market performance of the basic metals will continue to fluctuate in the range, and under the signal that the epidemic has not obtained the inflection point, it is difficult for long-term trading to take a unilateral lead Restricted by logistics factors and slightly supported by prices, the company will focus on logistics and resumption of work next week. It is expected to fluctuate between 14000-14500 yuan / ton this week.

1、 Price trend

Since the beginning of January 2020, the price trend of n-propanol has been relatively stable, with a slight increase since the beginning of the year. According to the data of business agency, at the beginning of the year, the average price of n-propanol was 10600 yuan / ton, and the current average price of n-propanol was 10800 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.89%. At present, the domestic ex factory price is 10500-10800 yuan / ton in barrels (Zibo region), the market price of imported n-propanol is 10800-11600 yuan / ton in barrels (Taiwan), the low-end of bulk n-propanol, and the price difference is about 1000-1100 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

Product: at present, the market of n-propanol is affected by the current environment, logistics and other factors. The market operating rate is low, the transportation aspect fails to fully recover, the market is not available, and the transaction atmosphere is cold. The current inventory of n-propanol in Zibo, Shandong Province is low, and some enterprises are in short supply. At present, the ex factory quotation of n-propanol in fengcang Chemical Co., Ltd. in Shandong Province is 10500 yuan / ton in barrels (Shan East Zibo), it is difficult to transport n-propanol to the whole country due to the logistics restrictions in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, so it can only be sold in the surrounding areas.

Industry chain: the domestic market of upstream product propylene continued to be weak this week, the terminal demand recovered slowly, the operating rate of propylene and downstream units continued to decline, a small amount of downstream demand chose low procurement, and the overall market trading atmosphere was weak. As of February 13, the market price of propylene in Shandong has increased or decreased. During the Spring Festival, the international crude oil market continued to decline sharply, and the domestic propylene price also fell for many times. Since February, the price of propylene in Shandong Province has been declining all the way. On November 11, the price of some enterprises recovered slightly and then declined. Today, the price has fluctuated. At present, the market turnover is about 5750-6200 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 5900-6000 yuan / ton. There are many units in the upstream and downstream industries that have been shut down for maintenance, and the operating rate is still low; however, affected by the epidemic situation, some refineries ship at low price under the inventory pressure, and the market transaction is rare, the market is cold, and the wait-and-see is the main thing. It is expected that the market price of propylene will start to fluctuate in recent days.

Industry: n-propanol industry is in the downstream of chemical industry, mainly used as solvent, a small amount of which is also used to synthesize n-Propyl Acetate. N-propanol is also used as bactericide, pesticide and pharmaceutical raw materials, perfume raw materials, erythromycin, bromopropane, nipagin propyl ester, paint, ink, n-Propyl Acetate, etc. of fuel oil, with a wide range of uses. The price of n-propanol is not easy to monitor, and the dealers still have reservations about the price, which may lead to differences in the specific negotiations, and there are differences in each region.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysts of zhengpropanol of the business agency: due to the actual effect of the recovery of logistics and transportation in many places, it is expected that the market situation of zhengpropanol will not change much next week. With the improvement of logistics and the overall environment, the market trading atmosphere will also pick up. How to continue the market trend still needs to wait and see the change of raw material price and the delivery of zhengpropanol.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business association, as of January 19, the average price of domestic premium DMF enterprises was 4866.67 yuan / ton, and the manufacturer’s price range was 4500-5000 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

Products: DMF plant has stable operation, inventory has entered the accumulation stage, market trading atmosphere is quiet, holiday atmosphere is strong.

Industrial chain: the market of upstream raw materials methanol and synthetic ammonia is stable, and the cost support is strong. The market demand in East China and South China is light, and the industry’s attention to the post festival market is temporarily weak

Industry: on January 18, the chemical industry index was 734, the same as yesterday, down 27.76% from 1016 (2012-03-13), the highest point in the cycle, and up 22.33% from 600, the lowest point on January 31, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

4、 Future forecast

DMF analysts believe that in the short term, DMF is mainly weak and stable, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see,

1、 Price data

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of gasoline and diesel is basically stable this week. The price of domestic gasoline is 6506 yuan / ton, 0.43% lower than that of last week; the price of domestic diesel is 6160 yuan / ton, 1.02% lower than that of last week.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: international crude oil fell slightly this week. At present, the price adjustment of domestic refined oil on February 1 is expected to decrease by 160 yuan / ton. However, with the support of Spring Festival holiday demand, the market price of refined oil is basically stable.

Industry chain: EIA’s monthly report shows that the risk of major threat to oil supply seems to have subsided, and the oil production of non OPEC member countries is growing strongly, and the crude oil production of OPEC 1 is 700000 barrels / day higher than expected. The bad news of international crude oil market is constantly coming out. This week, the overall international oil price fell in shock, WTI crude oil price fell 0.47% in the week.

Market: last week, due to the sharp rise in crude oil, the price of gasoline and diesel rose to a staged high. In this week, with the international oil price falling, the wait-and-see mood of downstream operators continued to be strong, and the overall performance of market transactions was average. However, due to the approaching of the Spring Festival holiday, the demand support of the refined oil market and the opening of replenishment operations by upstream and downstream operators, the market turnover has improved significantly. This week, the domestic refined oil market is mainly stable.

3、 Future forecast

Lu Xingjun, an oil product analyst with business club, believes that although the price drop in the international crude oil market is lower than before, the market performance is relatively weak. The oil product market is supported by the market demand during the Spring Festival holiday. It is expected that the market price of refined oil will be stable next week.

1、 Price trend

According to the data in the business club’s bulk list, the domestic isomeric xylene market continued to adjust this week, down 1.13% as of Friday.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Product: compared with last week, affected by the easing of us Iraq relations and the approaching factors of the long holiday, the market continued to adjust and slightly fell back. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 5750 yuan / ton. Feedback from traders, month on month last week, this week’s transaction was average, port inventory stable.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, affected by the favorable signing of the first phase of economic and trade agreement between China and the United States, the overall oil price this week showed a volatile rebound trend. As of Friday, Brent rose 1.45%, Brent futures rose 1.48%, WTI futures rose 1.19%, and Dubai futures rose 0.19%.

Downstream, in PX market, the domestic market price is stable this week, at present, it is about 6900 yuan / ton, and the external market is down. The latest price is about 792 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea and 812 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the PX market price will maintain 6900 yuan / ton next week. In terms of PTA market, the price of external market is about 610 US dollars / ton, while the price of domestic PTA spot market continues to be slightly revised back, and it is expected that PTA market will remain volatile in the short term. In the ox market, Sinopec’s price of o-benzene was flat at 6300 yuan / ton, and the price of o-benzene was about US $870 / ton, which is expected to maintain a stable trend in the future.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: next week, we will continue to focus on market turnover, port inventory and crude oil trend. On the whole, toluene market is expected to continue a stable and volatile trend next Tuesday due to the approaching Spring Festival holiday.

1、 Price trend of lithium hydroxide:

(Figure: P value curve of lithium hydroxide product source: Commodity analysis system of Business Association)

2、 Market analysis:

On January 14, the market of lithium hydroxide mainly maintained stable operation, and the quotation of some enterprises was slightly reduced. On the 14th, the average price of domestic industrial lithium hydroxide enterprises was 57000 yuan / ton, down 1.16% compared with that on the 13th. In a half year cycle, it fell 31.60% year on year. On January 14, the lithium hydroxide commodity index was 135.71, down 1.59 points compared with that on January 13, down 64.43% compared with the highest point 381.48 (2016-09-12), and up 35.71% compared with the lowest point 100.00 on September 4, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2014-09-01 to now) on January 14, the external quotation of industrial grade lithium hydroxide of Shanghai Yulun Industrial Co., Ltd. was 58000 yuan / ton, that of Shanghai Eugene Industrial Co., Ltd. was 58000 yuan / ton, and that of Zigong tongfarong industrial grade lithium hydroxide was 55000 yuan / ton. The specific transaction price will be discussed in a single way. At present, the mainstream price of industrial lithium hydroxide Market in China is around 55000-58000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China on January 14 was 43200 yuan / ton, and the average price of battery lithium carbonate in East China was 50600 yuan / ton. During the Spring Festival, lithium carbonate production enterprises began to enter the stage of shutdown and maintenance gradually, and the inventory level may be eased, but the price decline will slow down due to the decrease of demand. It is predicted that the price of lithium carbonate will hardly improve by this year.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 9 kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices on January 14, 2020, among which the top three commodities are acetone (4.08%), R22 (1.87%) and polyformaldehyde (1.86%). There are 14 kinds of commodities with a decline in the month on month, and the top three products are propane (- 2.50%), ammonium chloride (- 1.56%) and mixed xylene (- 1.22%). The 14 day average rose or fell by 0.01%.

3、 Future forecast:

According to analysts of lithium hydroxide of business club, it is expected that in the short term, the domestic market of lithium hydroxide will be dominated by weak market stable operation.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the large scale list of business agencies, the market price of propylene (Shandong) in China rose continuously in the first ten days of January. At the beginning of ten days (January 1), the average price of enterprises is ten day low price, 6698 yuan / ton; at the end of ten days (January 10), the average price of enterprises is ten day high price, 7079 yuan / ton, and the ten day increase has reached 5.68%.

2、 Analysis and comment

Product: affected by international crude oil, domestic propylene price rebounded from the bottom at the end of December, rising continuously. It was stable on January 5 and 6, rising on January 7 and 8, and maintaining stability on January 9. Today, it continues to increase by about 100 yuan / ton. At present, the market transaction has risen to about 7050-7300 yuan / ton, and the main flow price is about 7050 yuan / ton. In the near future, some domestic dehydrogenation units will be shut down or the load will be reduced. A dehydrogenation unit in South Korea is planned to be shut down for maintenance, which makes propylene supply tight.

Industry chain: in the upstream, the situation in the Middle East is tense, the international crude oil price is unstable, and the fluctuation range is obvious, which has a certain impact on propylene market.

Recently, PP declined slightly, with a 10 day drop of 1.70%, and the profit margin declined, which had a certain negative impact on propylene.

In the near future, acrylic acid slightly increased, with a ten day increase of 0.41%. In the later period, the market may be stable and positive, with some positive impact on propylene.

In recent days, the price of propylene oxide rose slightly and remained stable after falling 4.61%, with a 10 day drop of 2.80%. In the short term, the finishing operation may be blocked, with limited impact on propylene.

In the first ten days, the price of epichlorohydrin fluctuated, with an increase of 0.47% in ten days and an amplitude of 3.29% in ten days. In the future, it may still be dominated by weak finishing operation, with limited impact on propylene.

In recent days, the domestic n-butanol rose rapidly after falling, with a ten day increase of 1.71% and a ten day amplitude of 2.89%. It is expected that there will still be shocks in the future, which is good for propylene.

The price of octanol declined slightly, 0.96% in ten days, which was negative for propylene.

The phenol Market in Shandong Province rose slightly in the first ten days of January, up 2.93% in ten days, which had a positive impact on propylene.

The acetone market in Shandong Province decreased significantly in the first ten days of January, with a drop of 5.44% in ten days. It is expected that the market will be stable in the short term, which will have a certain negative impact on propylene.

Isopropanol market prices rose all the way in the near future, up 4.81% in ten days. It is still possible to rise in the future, which has a certain positive impact on propylene market.

3、 Future forecast

According to the propylene analyst of the chemical branch of business society, the propylene market has been rising continuously in recent days. The incident in the Middle East has shaken the international crude oil price. The shutdown of domestic and foreign dehydrogenation units has led to the shortage of propylene supply. Although the downstream operating rate has declined and the profit has decreased, the market price of propylene may still rise in recent days.

1、 Price trend of epichlorohydrin:

Epichlorohydrin market weakened this week, according to the data in the business club’s large list. As of the 10th, the average price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 14233.33 yuan / ton, down 0.47% compared with the beginning of the week, and up 33.65% compared with the same period last year. On January 10, the epichlorohydrin commodity index was 100.52, flat with that on January 9, 24.82% lower than the highest point 133.71 (2019-10-29) in the cycle, and 114.56% higher than the lowest point 46.85 on September 7, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis:

Product: epichlorohydrin market weakened this week. On June 6, the main quotation of epichlorohydrin market was 14000-14400 yuan / ton, and there was no inventory pressure on the spot. The manufacturer kept a firm price mentality, but the downstream factory had a relatively abundant stock of raw materials, and the intention to purchase high-priced raw materials was not high. The high-end shipment of the carrier was blocked, and the majority of profits were offered. On October 10, the main quotation of epichlorohydrin market in China was lowered to around 13500-14200 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: this week (1.6-1.10) the market in the upstream propylene Shandong region rose, or 2.53%. At present, the market transaction has risen to about 7050-7300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 7050 yuan / ton. The Middle East event has shaken the international crude oil price. The shutdown of domestic and foreign dehydrogenation units has led to the shortage of propylene supply. Although the downstream operating rate has declined and the profit has decreased, the propylene market price may still rise in recent days. On the 10th, the downstream epoxy resin was in high-level finishing operation, and the factory made firm offer.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the first week of 2020 (1.6-1.10), there are 27 kinds of commodities rising month by month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which there are 3 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 3.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are bisphenol A (9.65%), glycol (7.92%), ammonium chloride (5.09%). There are 18 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and 1 kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are caustic soda (- 5.22%), chloroform (- 4.55%), sodium metabisulfite (- 3.79%). This week’s average was 0.35%.

3、 Future forecast:

Epichlorohydrin analysts believe that in the near future, the price of raw propylene has been rising continuously, with strong cost support. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, the enthusiasm for purchasing epoxy resin in the downstream is weakened, and the action force of epichlorohydrin is insufficient. It is expected that epichlorohydrin market will be dominated by weak consolidation operation in the short term.

According to statistics, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid in China this week is temporarily stable. As of the end of the week, the price is 10240 yuan / ton, which is the same as the price at the beginning of the week, down 19.84% year on year.

Products: the price trend of hydrofluoric acid this week is temporarily stable. In the near future, the on-site manufacturers’ goods are generally sold. The operating rate of the downstream refrigerant industry remains at a low level. The demand for the domestic hydrofluoric acid market is limited. In addition, the domestic hydrofluoric acid plant maintains a high operating rate, and the domestic spot supply is sufficient. However, the price of fluorite remains high in the near future, and the domestic price trend is temporarily stable. By the end of the weekend, southern China The mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation is 10000-11000 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 10000-10500 yuan / ton. In the near future, the price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is stable. In the near future, the demand of downstream refrigerant industry is general, and the supply of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers is general. Some manufacturers report that the recent rise pressure is large. By the end of the week, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in Fujian Province was about 10000-10500 yuan / ton, in Shandong Province, Jiangxi Province, Inner Mongolia and Jiangxi Province, respectively. The market price trend of hydrofluoric acid was stable.

Industry chain: the price of fluorite in the upstream of hydrofluoric acid is stable this week. By the end of the week, the ex factory price of fluorite is 2894.44 yuan / ton. The supply of fluorite in China is normal, but the price of fluorite has little change. The upstream cost price has a certain cost support impact on the hydrofluoric acid market. With the decrease of gas temperature, the supply of fluorite in the north will gradually decline. At that time, the price of fluorite will remain high, and the price of hydrofluoric acid will be stable The market has certain cost support. In the near future, the trading trend of the downstream refrigerant market of the terminal is stable, mainly because the quota of enterprises at the end of the year is limited, the supply is tight, and the market is out of stock, most manufacturers do not accept new orders basically, and the orders before the main supply, the price is high and stable. The transaction price of bulk water market of traders is chaotic, and the supply of goods in their hands is tight. The terminal’s demand for refrigerant R22 has not been improved, and the main price of domestic large enterprises is 15500-18500 yuan / ton. The price trend of domestic R134a market remains high, and the unit operating rate of production enterprises remains low. At present, the automobile industry has entered the stock cycle, and the demand for R134a has slightly improved. At present, the supply of R134a in the market is slightly tight, and the price trend remains high. The downstream is still on-demand procurement, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is temporarily stable.

Industry: this week, the upstream raw materials fluorite and hydrofluoric acid market spot supply is normal, coupled with the general trading market of the downstream refrigerant industry, hydrofluoric acid market price trend is stable.

In recent years, the operating rate of domestic refrigerants has not changed much. The market demand for hydrofluoric acid is purchased on demand, and the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is normal in the field. However, the market supply of raw materials is normal in the near future, and the price of fluorite is supported to some extent. Chen Ling, an hydrofluoric acid analyst of the business agency, thinks that the market price of hydrofluoric acid will be stable next week.

On January 3, Sulaimani, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard “Holy City Brigade” in Iran, was killed in an air raid at Baghdad airport in Iraq. The US side confirmed that the attack was launched. Affected by the incident, crude oil rose sharply. WTI crude oil futures market price in the US rose to 63.05 US dollars / barrel, or 1.87 US dollars. Brent crude oil futures price rose to 68.60 US dollars / barrel, or 68.60 US dollars / barrel $2.35.

At present, the incident continues to ferment, and the situation in the Middle East is becoming increasingly tense. Khamenei, Iran’s top leader, later said that “severe retaliation” is waiting to kill the murderer of major general Sulaimani of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard “. Then the U.S. State Department issued an emergency security warning, asking the American citizens in Iraq to evacuate immediately, and at the same time, suspending the consular service of the embassy. The situation in the U.S. and Iran has further deteriorated 。 Then, on January 5, it was reported that the U.S. ambassador to Iraq and his military base were simultaneously attacked by rockets, which was regarded as the “first shot” by Iran.

After being retaliated by Iran, the highest level of the United States issued a military warning publicly, and defined the scope of the military action against Iran. On January 5, trump publicly said that if Iran launched retaliation, threatening the security of the United States, the United States hit the 52 targets of Iran precisely. At present, things are out of control, which is also the largest black swan flying out of the world at the beginning of 2020.

How should oil prices go in the later period?

According to the business association, the situation in the Middle East is difficult to calm down in the short term. The United States has made a plan to increase its troops in the Middle East, and the incident has also evolved in the long term. At present, the risk of crude oil supply in the Middle East is triggered again, especially Iran and Iraq. It is reported that Iran and Iraq are the main producers of OPEC crude oil and fuel oil, and fuel oil exports rank first (mainly to the Asia Pacific). In November 2019, OPEC The crude oil output of the two countries accounts for 22.82% of OPEC’s total output, which is 29.7 million barrels / day, including 4.71 million barrels / day in Iraq and 2.07 million barrels / day in Iran. According to the data, this proportion is very large. If the Middle East is in a state of war, the oil production and refining facilities of the two countries will be affected. At that time, the production of crude oil and fuel oil will be significantly reduced, which will also lead to the risk of crude oil supply and chain reaction, including OPEC + production reduction agreement. It is expected that crude oil will remain long in the near future As a result, there is a great possibility for oil prices to reach a new high.