I. price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, on November 30, the domestic carbon black quotation was 7000 yuan / ton, with a slight fluctuation in the price range of 100-300 yuan / ton. This month’s carbon black market mainly fluctuated.

After the carbon black market fell sharply in 2018, it is difficult for the price to rise again. In the first three quarters of 2019, the price fluctuated little and the market did not rise or fall.

II. Market analysis

Industrial chain:

This month, the overall bottom of carbon black and its downstream market has stabilized, the gross profit rate of carbon black products has rebounded on a month on month basis, the operating rate of tire factories has dropped to about 50%, carbon black inventory is difficult to digest, new orders are limited, and the operating rate of some carbon black factories continues to decline. It is difficult to change the loss situation of downstream factories, the overall mentality is relatively negative, and the possibility of further decline in operating rate is not ruled out in the later stage.

listed company:

In the first three quarters of 2019, the net profit of domestic carbon black listed companies all showed a significant negative growth. Black cat’s operating net profit fell by 128.84%, the only one of the four listed companies with negative net profit. Among the listed enterprises, Jinneng technology still has the highest operating revenue and the smallest decline in net profit. Its operating revenue is 6.208 billion yuan, down 2.24% year-on-year; its net profit is 593 million yuan, down 35.94% year-on-year. Shanxi Yongdong is the only private enterprise with a positive growth in its business income, which is 2.133 billion yuan, up 13.42% year on year.

In the first three quarters of 2019, the profits of domestic carbon black enterprises plummeted or even lost money, which was mainly affected by the low delivery price of domestic carbon black, while the low price of carbon black was mainly affected by overcapacity, homogenization and vicious competition, high-temperature coal tar price relative to carbon black price, insufficient consumption power in the automobile industry, low tire market demand, passive bargaining power and poor unity, and low international crude oil price Shock and other factors.

III. future forecast

Carbon black data division of the chemical branch of the business society thinks: carbon black market downturn will continue at the end of the year.

I. price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the market price of propylene fluctuated in a narrow range in November. At the beginning of the month, the average price of enterprises was 7184 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month (November 29), the average price of enterprises was 7035 yuan / ton, with a monthly decline of 2.08%. The high price of this month is 7399 yuan / ton on November 13 and 14; the low price of this month is 6995 yuan / ton on November 28; the monthly amplitude is 5.46%.

II. Analysis and comment

Product: the price of propylene began to decline from the end of October. On the first day, it still fell by 50-100 yuan / ton. By the end of the week, the price began to rise by 150-200 yuan / ton. On the sixth day, the price was generally stable. On the 12th, the price of the enterprise was stable. On the 15th, the price began to decline. On the 19th-22nd, most of the prices were stable, and some of them rose slightly. The price of propylene fell again on the weekend, All the way down about 350 yuan / ton, the price of propylene began to stabilize on the 28th and slightly increased by about 50 yuan / ton on the 29th. At present, the market turnover is still around 6970-7350 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 7000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: upstream, influenced by the recent OPEC production reduction policy or the news that it will be extended, the international crude oil market is generally ideal, which has a certain effect on propylene. In the downstream, the PP futures market is also optimistic. The downstream manufacturers start to resume work gradually, the shipment situation improves, and the inventory pressure decreases, which also has a positive impact on propylene.

PP spot fell sharply in November, down 1.95% on a monthly basis, but the market at the end of the month was more ideal, pulling up the propylene market.

In November, the domestic acrylic acid market stabilized in the first half of the month, and rose in the second half of the month, with a monthly increase of 13.46%, which has a positive impact on propylene.

The trend of propylene oxide declined in November and then rose. At the end of the month, it was a monthly high price, with a monthly increase of 3.72% and an amplitude of 5.86%. It was mainly used in the aftermarket or rigid finishing operation, which had a certain pulling effect on propylene.

In November, epichlorohydrin began to fall sharply, and the price went down all the way, with a monthly drop as high as 31.34%. The upward action force was still insufficient, which had a certain impact on the propylene price.

N-butanol also rose in November after a decline. At the end of the month, it was also a high price, with a monthly increase of 1.07% and an amplitude of 2.72%, which had little impact on propylene.

Octanol rose slightly after the decline in November. At the beginning of the month, it was a monthly high price, with a monthly decline of 1.18% and an amplitude of 2.82%, which may have a negative impact on propylene.

In November, the domestic phenol market fell steadily, with monthly high price at the beginning of the month and monthly low price at the end of the month, with a monthly decline of 8.64%. The downward trend slowed down at the end of the month, but it still had a negative impact on propylene market.

In November, the domestic acetone market rose rapidly, with monthly low price at the beginning of the month and monthly high price at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 40.69%. There are some signs of stabilization in the future market, which has a certain positive impact on propylene.

In November, isopropanol market was affected by upstream acetone market, rising continuously, with a monthly increase of 26.96%, which had a positive impact on propylene.

III. future forecast

According to the propylene analyst of the chemical branch of the business society, on the whole, propylene fell in a ladder like way after rising in November, and rose slightly at the end of the month. The upstream crude oil market is relatively ideal; the downstream operating rate is acceptable, and the shipping pressure is small, so it is expected that the propylene price in Shandong will still rise in the short term.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the market price of asphalt is stable this week, and the price of asphalt is reported to be 3358 yuan / ton, which is the same as that of last week.

II. Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the international crude oil market price is relatively high and fluctuates in a narrow range. The asphalt market is lack of cost support and the overall demand of the asphalt market is not good, and the asphalt price is stable and falling.

Industry chain: the price of international crude oil market is relatively high this week, with little fluctuation. OPEC’s discussion on production reduction has made the market cautious in trading. The U.S. crude oil inventory and production have both increased. At present, the international crude oil market price is not strong. WTI crude oil closed at US $58.11/bbl this week, down 0.18% for the week

.

Asphalt Market: the weather turns cold, and the overall demand of asphalt market is poor. In Shandong and North China, the demand is general, and there is partial finishing demand; refineries in Shandong and Hebei are gradually increasing; the market demand in East China has not improved significantly, and the market demand is mainly rigid; in southwest and South China, the demand end maintains rigid demand, while the downstream and traders are not active in purchasing mentality. At present, the market price of asphalt has not touched the psychological price of traders’ winter storage. This week, the domestic asphalt market price fell steadily.

III. future forecast

Lu Xingjun, an asphalt analyst at the business club, believes that: the international crude oil price is weak, the demand for asphalt market has entered the off-season, and the downstream demand is constantly weakening. It is expected that the price of asphalt market will decline steadily next week.

I. price trend:

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the quotation of Sinopec orthobenzene contract was stable this week. As of November 25, the contract price of o-xylene Sinopec was 6200.00 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with the price of o-xylene at the beginning of the week (November 18). The price is 16.22% lower than that of the same period last year. The price of o-benzene is stable and the market of o-benzene is strong and stable.

II. Market analysis:

Product analysis

Commodity name 「 quotation type 」 port 」 11.22 price 」 11.15 price 」 11.8 price 」 11.1 price 」 unit

O-xylene CFR China 755.00 760.00 760.00 760.00 760.00 USD / ton

O-xylene CFR Southeast Asia 785.00 790.00 790.00 790.00 790.00 USD / ton

O-xylene FOB South Korea 750.00 755.00 755.00 755.00 755.00 USD / ton

O-xylene FOB Rotterdam 865.00 865.00 865.00 865.00 865.00 865.00 USD / ton

© November 2019 business club www.100ppi.com

This week, the price of benzene was volatile and fell, while the price of benzene in China, Southeast Asia and South Korea fell 5 US dollars / ton. The external price of ortho benzene fell, the import price of ortho benzene remained stable, the port price of ortho benzene was stable, the port inventory was low, the future market of ortho benzene was still under negative pressure, and the positive momentum was insufficient. Sinopec’s listing price of ortho benzene in East China is 6200 yuan / ton, the supply of ortho xylene is stable, the purchasing enthusiasm of the downstream of ortho benzene is general, the purchasing power of ortho benzene is poor, the favorable power of the future ortho benzene market is insufficient, and the downward pressure is weakened.

Factor analysis of industrial chain

The price of mixed xylene rose in shock this week. The market of mixed xylene rose first and then fell. The overall shock rose. The rising price of raw materials was good for the market of o-benzene, the cost of o-benzene increased, the market of o-benzene weakened, the market of o-benzene weakened, and the market of o-benzene decreased. The overall cost of ortho benzene has increased, and the benefit of ortho benzene in the future has increased. At the same time, because the price of mixed xylene rises first and then falls, the driving force for the rise of mixed xylene p-o-benzene is limited, the cost of o-benzene rises in shock, the driving force for the rise of o-benzene in the future is general, and the overall market of o-benzene in the future is good but the driving force for the rise is general.

This week, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated slightly and rose. The market of phthalic anhydride is good for ortho benzene, but the good is limited. The downstream demand of ortho benzene rose this week, but the rising momentum is general, and the overall market is good. In terms of plasticizers, this week’s DOP market was weak and stable, while the downward pressure weakened and the upward momentum increased. With the market recovery of downstream products such as plasticizers, ortho benzene market has a certain upward momentum. Overall, the downward pressure of ortho benzene Market weakens and the upward momentum increases, but the upward momentum of ortho benzene is still insufficient. The market of ortho benzene market is mainly strong and stable.

3. Future forecast:

According to Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of o-xylene of business association, the price of o-xylene raw materials mixed with xylene rose in shock this week, the cost of o-benzene rose, and the driving force of o-benzene rose; on the demand side, the market of phthalic anhydride rose in small shock this week, the market of plasticizer rose in small amplitude, the price of plasticizer rose in small shock, the downstream demand rose, and the driving force of o-benzene rose; on the external market, Ben The weekly price of o-benzene fell, the port inventory was low, and the domestic price of o-benzene was still under negative pressure. To sum up, this week’s o-xylene market was negative and positive, with rising momentum and falling pressure remaining, but the overall growth momentum of o-xylene was limited, which was not enough to support the sharp rise of o-xylene. It is expected that the o-xylene market in the future will be strong and stable.

The future market should focus on: the cost of o-benzene, the price trend of downstream phthalic anhydride and plasticizer. Attention can be paid to: the external plate of o-benzene.

In recent years, the price of heavy rare earth rebounded and rose, but the market price of light rare earth is still at a low level. The price trend chart of some domestic rare earth products:

Recently, the domestic market price of heavy rare earth rebounded. As of the 15th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 156000 yuan / ton, an increase of 2% this week; the price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 156000 yuan / ton, an increase of 2%; the price of terbium rare earth also rose 10000 yuan / ton on the 15th. However, the domestic market price of light rare earth still maintained a low level, the price of neodymium oxide was 285500 yuan / ton; the price of praseodymium neodymium alloy was 360500 yuan / ton The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 283500 yuan / ton. In recent years, the domestic price of heavy rare earth rebounded higher, and the market price of light rare earth stopped falling. Affected by favorable national policies, the market of heavy rare earth rose.

On November 15, the rare earth index was 335 points, the same as yesterday, 66.50% lower than the highest point in the cycle, 1000 points (2011-12-06), and 23.62% higher than the lowest point, 271 point, on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

In recent years, the market price of rare earth has stopped falling and stabilized, the price of heavy rare earth in the rare earth market has rebounded and increased, the supply policy of domestic heavy rare earth market, the export of heavy rare earth has improved, and the price of domestic heavy rare earth has rebounded and increased. In addition, the demand for permanent magnet has increased recently, the market trend of PR nd series products has stopped falling, the on-site supply is normal, the demand for light rare earth is general in the near future, and the market price remains low. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has particularity, especially some products have radiation hazards, which makes the environmental protection supervision more strict. Under the strict inspection of environmental protection, the manufacturer reasonably controls the sales, but the downstream demand has not changed much in the near future, and the price trend of most rare earths is mainly stable.

Geng Shuang, spokesman of the Ministry of foreign affairs, presided over a regular press conference on the 14th. Geng Shuang said that China is the world’s largest country in rare earth reserves and production, and plays an important role in the global rare earth industry chain. China has always adhered to the principle of openness, coordination and sharing, promoted the development of domestic rare earth industry, and is willing to meet the legitimate needs of the development of all countries in the world with rare earth resources and products, To play a positive role in promoting the development of China’s economy and the world economy. China’s rare earth production accounts for 73% of the world’s total, ranking first in the world and playing an important role in the game between big countries. Rare earth PR nd and Dy TB are mainly used in NdFeB magnetic steel. In addition, the Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources jointly issued a notice to release the total amount control indicators of rare earth mining, smelting separation and tungsten mining in 2019. The supply and demand pattern of the rare earth industry is expected to further improve, and people in the domestic market are waiting for the good news of the national reserves.

Rare earth analysts of the business agency expect that the recent domestic environmental protection scrutiny will not be reduced. In addition, the domestic export of rare earth industry will be well supported, and the supply and demand pattern is improving in a good way. It is expected that the price of heavy rare earth in the rare earth market is still expected to continue to rise, and the light rare earth affected will also have a rebound.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the comprehensive price of potassium chloride is temporarily stable this week. This week, the average price of the mainstream comprehensive quotation of potassium chloride was 2235.00 yuan / ton, down 6.88% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Overall, this week’s potassium chloride market was temporarily stable, with the potassium chloride commodity index at 70.95 on November 15.

II. Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream potassium chloride manufacturers this week is temporarily stable: the weekly ex factory quotation of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride is 2200 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; the weekend distribution quotation of Anhui Badu potassium chloride is 2270 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week. This week, the actual transaction in the potassium chloride market is not good. On the whole, the main contradiction in the market is that the supply exceeds the demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, the downstream procurement is just in demand, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable.

III. future forecast

In late November, the overall trend of potassium chloride market or low consolidation dominated. After the adjustment in October, the capital return of each plant is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, and the production capacity is increased. However, the market of potassium chloride is facing three major pressures, namely, large stock, weak demand and downward international prices. Therefore, the main contradiction in the current market is that supply exceeds demand. According to analysts of KCl in business association, the short-term market of KCl is dominated by low consolidation under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

I. price trend

According to the data in the business club’s large list, the market price of monoammonium phosphate in China remained stable this week. On November 11, the average ex factory price of domestic powdered monoammonium was 1966 yuan / ton, and on November 15, the average ex factory price was 1966 yuan / ton, with stable price. On November 15, the monoammonium phosphate commodity index was 65.83, unchanged from yesterday, down 34.72% from the highest point in the cycle of 100.84 (2011-09-13), and up 6.02% from the lowest point of 62.09 on September 19, 2017. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Products: 55% of ammonium powder in Anhui Province has a factory quotation of 1850-2050 yuan / ton, and the commencement is stable. In Hubei Province, the ex factory price of 55% powdered ammonium is about 1900 yuan / ton, and that of 60% mainstream powdered ammonium is 2000-2100 yuan / ton. The market in Henan Province has maintained stable operation, and 55% of ammonium powder has been quoted at about 1850 yuan / ton, with stable start-up. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Shandong Province is 2000-2050 yuan / ton, and the price is stable. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Sichuan is about 1950 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: weak domestic sulfur market, weak downstream demand, weak enthusiasm of terminal purchase in the market, no news from the outside market, port inventory continues to increase instead of decreasing, and the industry is bearish on the future market. Phosphorus ore market has been in a weak state of consolidation, demand is still weak, on-site trading is weak, enterprises sporadically supply orders from old customers, continue to digest inventory, and new orders are scarce.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 45th week of 2019 (11.11-11.15), there are 19 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which there are 2 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are hydrochloric acid (19.18%), chloroform (12.55%) and R22 (4.80%) There are 27 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, with 2 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products decreased were epichlorohydrin (- 9.22%), aniline (- 7.50%), titanium dioxide (- 3.58%) This week’s average was 0.18%.

III. future forecast

According to analysts of monoammonium phosphate, the market price of raw materials has declined, the market demand is light, and the industry has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. The operating rate of the enterprise is 50%, and some of the enterprise’s devices are overhauled. The downstream compound fertilizer enterprises are not active in buying goods, and they usually take the goods on demand. At present, the market has no good support, and the weak market continues. It is expected that the weak market of monoammonium phosphate will be dominated.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the asphalt market price is stable this week, with the asphalt price closing at 3378 yuan / ton, 0.59% lower than last week’s Asphalt price.

II. Analysis of influencing factors

Products: the price of international crude oil market fluctuates in a narrow range. Refineries in North China and Shandong continue to reduce the factory price of asphalt, and the transaction price of asphalt market continues to decline.

Industrial chain: this week, international crude oil prices fluctuated in a narrow range. Although OPEC countries are expected to continue to expand the scale of production reduction, U.S. crude oil inventory growth, production hit a record high, coupled with a slowdown in global economic growth. The international crude oil market still has no breakthrough direction, and the international crude oil price keeps stable operation.

Asphalt Market: the weather turns cold, the rigid demand of asphalt market continues to weaken, and the market price is under pressure. In Northeast China, the current road demand continues to weaken, the overall demand is not good, and Liaohe Petrochemical and other refinery units are shut down and converted to production. In Shandong and North China, the factory asphalt price of refineries has been lowered under the trend of weakening asphalt market demand. The demand for asphalt in the East China market is fair, but there is no obvious peak season in the South China and southwest markets, and the demand is stable. Overall, the demand for asphalt in the north will further weaken, while the southern market will be stable for the time being.

III. future forecast

Lu Xingjun, an asphalt analyst at the business club, believes that the international crude oil price is in a volatile circle, the demand for asphalt market is declining, and the asphalt price is expected to continue to decline.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of November 7, the average price of domestic aggregate MDI market was 12475 yuan / ton, and the price fell 2.54% month on month in the same period of last month, down 4.77% year on year. The overall market is low.

II. Market analysis

Product: domestic aggregate MDI market is low-end. North China and East China Wanhua cargo negotiation is 12300-12500 yuan / ton, Shanghai cargo negotiation is 11700-12000 yuan / ton, South China Wanhua cargo negotiation is 12400-12500 yuan / ton, Shanghai cargo negotiation is 11700-11900 yuan / ton. Shanghai’s goods fill the market slowly, the distributors’ hands are tight on spot, but the terminal is weak, the market is not easy to trade and invest at a high level, the operators keep the stable shipment, and the supply and demand game.

In terms of market, the aggregate MDI market in North China and Shandong remained stable. The market fundamentals have changed little, the downstream just needs to be depressed and purchase on demand. However, at the beginning of the month, the supply of enterprises to the market is slow, and the enterprises stick to the offer. East China aggregate MDI market range consolidation. The terminal is weak and resists the high price. However, the spot market is limited, and the offer is stable. Under the game of supply and demand, the market trading atmosphere is weak. South China aggregate MDI market range is weak. The market fundamentals have not changed much, but the downstream is in conflict with the high price, the market is not smooth in high-level trading, and the industry is more stable in negotiating shipment.

Industrial chain: raw materials, pure benzene: Asian pure benzene Market: January sales intention is 638-647 USD / ton FOB South Korea. Domestic pure benzene Market: the pure benzene Market in East China continues to rise, and the external market has been uplifted. The negotiation reference is 5350-5450 yuan / ton, some of the sales are slightly higher, and the far monthly negotiation is 5150-5200 yuan / ton, with a certain support for inventory decline.

Aniline: the East China aniline Market is in a stalemate. East China has a shipping schedule this week, the downstream just needs to be depressed, the market is firm and the delivery is limited, and the enterprise keeps stable.

III. future forecast

From the perspective of business community: on the positive side, enterprises have less market volume; suppliers intend to stabilize the market. In terms of bad news, the terminal just needs to be improved to a limited extent; some downstream still have pre inventory, mainly digesting inventory. MDI analysts predict that the short-term domestic MDI market will remain stagnant and stable

I. melamine price trend:

According to the data of the large scale list of business agencies, the market price of melamine fell this week, down 0.54% compared with that at the beginning of the week (October 28), and the mainstream domestic melamine price on the first day was 5400-5700 yuan / ton.

II. Market analysis:

Product: domestic melamine market is weak this week. At present, the mainstream price of melamine market in Xinjiang is around 5000 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of melamine market in Sichuan is around 5550 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of melamine market in Henan is around 5600 yuan / ton. The main quotation of melamine market in Shandong is around 5600 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: the ex factory price (10.28-11.1) of urea in Shandong area in the upper reaches runs smoothly. The upstream liquid ammonia price (10.28-11.1) rose by 1.14%. Downstream papermaking, plate, molding plastics and other industries started in a downturn.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 43rd week of 2019 (10.28-11.1), there are 12 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which there are two kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are dichloromethane (9.58%), sulfuric acid (6.98%) and aniline (4.24%). There are 40 commodities with a decline of 5% or more, accounting for 4.7% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top three products with a decline are DMF (- 7.88%), butadiene (- 6.73%) and acrylic acid (- 5.88%). This week’s average was – 0.61%.

3. Future forecast:

Melamine analysts of the business association believe that the price of raw urea is stable this week, with a small increase in liquid chlorine, which has limited support for melamine cost. The supply of melamine market is sufficient, but the downstream market demand is limited and the transaction follow-up is insufficient. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market will be consolidated and wait-and-see.