Price Trend

The potassium sulphate market has maintained a strong trend this week, according to the price monitoring of business associations.

II. Market Analysis

The market trend of resource-based potassium sulphate is general, the Luo potassium plant is overhauled, but the market supply is sufficient. At present, the arrival price of 52% powder is more than 2680-2700 yuan/ton. Although traders indicated that after the overhaul of Rok, they intend to raise the market price, but in the case of limited downstream demand, the price did not rise moderately.

Mannheim potassium sulfate price and start-up rate in the southwest and northwest regions have not changed much, and the sales situation is still acceptable, but the false high quotation has fallen back. At present, in the traditional high-level market in the southwest, the actual factory price of 52% water-soluble powder is only 3000 yuan. Prices have risen slightly in Hebei due to lack of supply.

Mannheim plant has a relatively high start-up rate, but the stock in the plant has not increased substantially. The production of the plant is mainly 52% water-soluble potassium sulfate, and the sales situation is still acceptable, but the price of 50% powder is low, and there are many stocks. The price of potassium sulfate is supported by the high content of potassium chloride and inverted hydrochloric acid. However, the downstream compound fertilizer gradually enters the off-season and starts to shrink at a low level, with the demand leveling off.

3. Future Market Forecast

Potassium sulphate analyst of business association thinks: entering the off-season, the market of potassium sulphate will continue to be stable in the short term.

I. Trend analysis

According to the data monitoring of business associations, this week (6.10-6.14) domestic cis-butadiene rubber prices fell slightly, at the beginning of the week, the price was 11550 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, the price was 11487 yuan/ton, the overall decline was 0.54%.

II. Market Analysis

Petrochemical ex-factory price: This week (6.10-6.14), the ex-factory price of domestic cis-butadiene rubber petrochemical plants was reduced by 200 yuan/ton, and as of June 14, the ex-factory price of cis-butadiene rubber in Daqing Petrochemical Company was 11,500 yuan/ton.

Rubber import and export: In May 2019, China imported 507,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber, a decrease of 8.98% in ring ratio, and 263.5 tons in January-May. Compared with the same period last year, it decreased by 3.5%.

Raw materials: raw material butadiene prices fell slightly this week, the cost of cis-butadiene rubber prices formed a negative. Butadiene dropped 2.33% at 8,590 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 8,390 yuan/ton at the end of the week, according to the business association.

Demand: According to the statistics bureau, the output of domestic rubber tyres in April 2019 was 73.758 million, down 0.8% from the same period last year; the output of domestic rubber tyres in January-April was 26.633 million, down 3.6% from the same period last year.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Xu Xiaokun, an analyst with business associations, believes that at present, on the one hand, the price of upstream butadiene has fallen, which has a negative effect on the price of synthetic rubber, on the other hand, the downstream market of rubber has continued to be weak, which has created a negative atmosphere for cis-butadiene rubber as a whole. In the later period, the market of cis-butadiene rubber will remain weak and volatile.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the recent domestic market decline of organosilicon DMC has spread to a larger extent. At the end of May, the market quotations of several major individual enterprises dropped substantially, and the lowest price has fallen below the threshold of 20,000 yuan/ton. On June 4, several agents quoted about 1,000 yuan/ton. On June 6, the lowest quotation of organosilicon DMC fell by about 17,000 yuan/ton.

II. Market Analysis

Products: At this stage, the domestic silicone DMC market shows a weak operation. As of June 6, the market price of DMC has dropped by about 16% compared with mid-May, and the current price has dropped to the lowest level in nearly two years.

Industry chain: At present, the strength of new orders of single manufacturers has declined, and the overall start-up rate of single factories is still at a high level. In May, the average start-up rate of single factories is about 80%. Some single factories arranged the overhaul of equipment from late May to early June. Higher start-up rate of individual enterprises also has a certain impact on prices, and the support for downstream products tends to be weak.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of business association Silicone DMC believe that the demand of Silicone DMC is in the off-season at present, and the competition of Silicone DMC market will still be fierce in the coming June. It is expected that the price of Silicone DMC will remain stable or adjust slightly in the future, which may be affected by the start-up rate of single manufacturers and the demand of upstream and downstream products.

I. Trend analysis

According to the data of business associations, the market of cis-butadiene rubber was mainly weak in May. At the beginning of the month, the price was 11550 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the price fell slightly to 11362 yuan/ton, and the overall price fell by 1.62% at the end of the month compared with the beginning of the month.

II. Market Analysis

Petrochemical ex-factory price: According to the business association, as of May 31, Daqing Petrochemical cis-butadiene rubber ex-factory price 11,550 yuan/ton.

As far as installation is concerned, according to business associations, two sets of 160,000 tons/year high cis-butadiene rubber units in Daqing Petrochemical Company are in normal operation with a load of about 90%; Qilu Petrochemical Company is in full negative operation with a load of 70,000 tons/year high cis-butadiene rubber unit; Yanshan Petrochemical Company is in normal operation with a load of 80% and a stock of cis-butadiene about 1100 tons.

Demand: The main downstream tire production of synthetic rubber declined year-on-year, to a certain extent, forming a negative impact on the price of cis-butadiene rubber. According to Statistics Bureau data, in April 2019, the output of domestic rubber tyres was 73.758 million, down 0.8% from the same period last year; in January-April, the output of domestic rubber tyres was 26.06.33 million, down 3.6% from the same period last year.

Raw material: The rising price of raw material supports the price of cis-butadiene rubber. Butadiene prices rose in May, 7,834 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 8,540 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an overall increase of 9.01%.

On the import side: China imported 557,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in April 2019, a decrease of 4.13% compared with the previous year; from January to April 2019, China imported 212.8 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), an increase of 2.3% over the previous year.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Xu Xiaokun, an analyst with business associations, believes that on the one hand, the higher price of raw material butadiene supports the price of cis-butadiene rubber; on the other hand, the market demand of downstream tires has not improved significantly, which is not conducive to the overall cis-butadiene rubber. However, some petrochemical manufacturers plan to carry out plant overhauls in June, or to some extent, stimulate the price of cis-butadiene.

Price Trend

According to the data of the business associations’big list, some enterprises have slightly increased the price of pure benzene at the beginning of this month. Domestic price changes of pure benzene are concentrated at the end of this month, and the price of enterprises has increased slightly. At the beginning of this month, the price of pure benzene ranged from 4300 to 4450 yuan/ton. At the end of this month, the price of pure benzene ranged from 4300 to 4500 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 0.45%. The highest price of this month appeared from May 30 to 31.

II. Analytical Review

1. Crude oil: Brent crude oil and U.S. crude oil prices in May showed a general trend of high at the beginning of the month and low at the end of the month. Fearing that the escalation of trade disputes will restrain economic growth, the decline of US stock market will drag down the atmosphere of oil market, and the decline of crude oil futures in Europe and the United States will be affected by a combination of factors, starting in late May.

2. Products: At the beginning of this month, some enterprises made small adjustments to pure benzene. Domestic price changes of pure benzene were mainly concentrated at the end of the month, and the price of pure benzene rose slightly. At the beginning of this month, domestic pure phenyl has not changed much, pure benzene inventory has been reduced, but although the market trading atmosphere is light, prices are strong as a whole, low-cost resources are difficult to find. The price of pure benzene has been rising steadily and slightly since the end of this month. Pure benzene inventories have been reduced again, and the reduction has been enlarged compared with the earlier period. The market is slightly encouraged. Prices began to rise at the end of the month, but the increase is limited by the current low price of hydrobenzene. Some of Sinochem’s enterprises parked and repaired in the middle of this month, which supported the price of pure benzene.

3. Downstream: Aniline prices in the lower reaches of this month have basically stabilized after the beginning of the month, which has little support for the price of pure benzene; maleic anhydride shows a downward trend this month, which does not support the price of pure benzene; acetone shows a downward trend as a whole this month, but also does not support the price of pure benzene.

3. Future Market Forecast

1. Crude oil: Concerned about the economic restraint of trade disputes and the weakness of market economy, oil prices may continue to show a weak trend in June.

2. Domestic market: In June-July, the overhaul load of factories has been increasing. The upside-down of internal and external plates in the early period may lead to a substantial reduction in the arrival of goods in June. In addition to the hot weather, the reservoir area has the consideration of lowering the safe liquid level. It is expected that the supply or a certain reduction will support the price of subsequent pure benzene.

Considering comprehensively, it is expected that pure benzene will continue to increase steadily or slightly in June.

On May 29, the fluorite commodity index was 103.95, up 0.22 points from yesterday, down 18.46% from 127.49 points in the cycle (2019-01-03), and up 111.24% from 49.21 points on December 18, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, domestic fluorite prices have risen, with an average price of 2962.5 yuan/ton as of 30 days. Recently, domestic fluorite plants have been operating normally, mines and flotation plants have been operating normally, the supply of fluorite in the field has been slightly tight, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream has recently risen. For the fluorite market, the price of fluorite market has risen on demand. Recent downstream installation start-up situation is general, fluorite spot supply is normal, terminal downstream pick-up situation improved, resulting in rising market price trend. As of 30 days, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia is 2700-3000 yuan/ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian is 2800-3100 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan is 2700-3100 yuan/ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi is 2800-3200 yuan/ton. The price trend of fluorite is rising.

The price trend of hydrofluoric acid Market in downstream fluorite is rising. As of 30 days, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 11490 yuan/ton. The price fluctuation of hydrofluoric acid market has a certain positive impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, the recent start-up of hydrofluoric acid plant is general, the demand for fluorite is weakened, and the price fluctuation of fluorite is running. Recent downstream refrigerant product installations started at a low level, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is general, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid product price trend is stable. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions are cool, R22 refrigerant facility starts at 60%, R22 market facility start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main manufacturer of bulk water factory offer price is 18500-19500 yuan/ton, but the manufacturer does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipment. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has not changed much, and the delivery quotation is general. Domestic market price trend of R134a shocks, production enterprises equipment start-up rate remains low, refrigerant market demand is general, manufacturers mainly export. But the price of on-site transactions does not change much. Businessmen buy on demand. Generally speaking, the downstream industry is in a general market. In addition, the fluorite market supply is normal and the price of fluorite is rising. Chen Ling, an analyst of business associations, believes that the price of fluorite market may rise slightly.

First, the price trend

According to business price monitoring, this week the domestic methanol market first rose and then stabilized.

At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic methanol market in 2288 yuan/ton, the weekend reported 2342 yuan/ton, the weekly increase of 2.36%, prices than the same period last year down 23.18%.

Second, the market analysis Products: Domestic methanol market performance is strong, local prices continue to move up. Port market, futures performance is fair, narrow shock mainly, the spot market with a small adjustment. In the mainland market, the new olefin plant production is expected to be active, the current Northwest main production area is OK, some of the suspension, and the recent freight continues to rise, the arrival cost has been improved to a certain extent to support the methanol price. It is worth mentioning that the current production area inventory is mostly transferred from the upstream end to the intermediate trade link, and the demand end has no obvious increase and the volume of goods digestion needs a certain period, so the second half of the local increase rhythm or slightly slower.

In addition, beware of rising freight costs on the production area of the rising space of the suppression conduction. Freight, domestic methanol freight local continued to move higher. Inner Mongolia North Line to Lubei Freight reference 300-360 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, South Line to Lubei 210-350 yuan/ton, up 20-40 yuan/ton. Shanxi Local to Lubei 120-200 yuan/ton; Guanzhong to Lubei reference 130-170 yuan/ton, to Lunan 150-200 yuan/ton. Ningxia to Lubei part of 280-290 yuan/ton or so.

Xinjiang to Lubei 660-680 yuan/ton, to Wenan 630-650 yuan/ton or so. Industrial chain: Formaldehyde: Formaldehyde market local adjustment. Affected by Lunan methanol rise, local formaldehyde enterprises narrow increase, other areas of temporary stability, downstream market is still just need to purchase mainly, the overall transaction in general, did not change. Acetic acid: Domestic acetic acid market part of the exploration, this month’s export orders concentrated in the recent delivery, to ease the domestic social inventory pressure of acetic acid, and some production enterprises to report a rise in confidence, Jiangsu Thorpe acetic acid device is still low-load operation, some export orders are delivered, North China acetic acid market is relatively optimistic, northwest, north China is still light Dimethyl ether: dimethyl ether price decline, market transaction atmosphere in general. Henan Regional Enterprises Bidding is obvious, the North Henan region fell below the 3,000 Yuan mark, corporate profits upside down losses serious, western Henan the price of high prices, manufacturers to leave the goods deadlocked, inventory pressure is great.

Shanxi Area Orchid is expected to stop at the end of this month overhaul, shipping pressure is small, the mainstream deal on the standard Henan area small decline mainly.

Third, the forecast of the aftermarket Business community Point of view: positive aspects, the mainland production enterprises pre-sale smooth, inventory is not high, temporarily no sales pressure; Nemonjute MTO device low load operation; Shandong Luxi, Nanjing Zhicheng Phase two MTO is expected to start production in 6-July; On the negative side, the traditional downstream products, dimethyl ether, acetic acid market continued to be low, corporate profitability ; The production of international methanol plant is stable, imported goods will be concentrated in port in early May at the end of April, when the social inventory will have a significant increase; affected by safety, environmental inspection and other factors, local market terminal enterprises to stop, affecting the consumption of methanol. After this week’s sharp price rise, downstream resistance highlighted, with weak, traders to slow down, and futures in the second half of the trend is weak, business society methanol analysts expect that next week the market will be stable, do not rule out the possibility of a local retreat. Port trend and futures maintain a high correlation, the recent increase in port arrival, internal dependence will be alleviated.

Price Trend

According to data from business associations, the average price of maleic anhydride offer by the end of the weekend was 7,100.00 yuan/ton (including tax), and the offer was weaker.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, the domestic maleic anhydride market as a whole showed a weak decline.

Industry chain: First, this week, domestic unsaturated resin finishing, downstream demand is general, resin factory on demand procurement is the main, domestic maleic anhydride market weakened, prices fell; secondly, the mainstream factory price weak finishing. Peripheral crude oil fluctuations affect the field mentality, crude oil has a certain support market; upstream raw materials pure benzene and n-butane are strong, the market supply is sufficient, in the short term, the profit margin of benzene and butane maleic anhydride is stable. Finally, at present, downstream warehouse replenishment is cautious, and factories are mainly on the lookout.

3. Future Market Forecast

At present, the domestic maleic anhydride market is likely to maintain a weak consolidation trend in the near future, and the overall price may be the same as this week, according to the analyst of maleic anhydride products of Business Society Chemical Branch.

First, the price trend

According to business data monitoring, the price of Trichloromethane in Shandong Province was sharply higher this week, the average price of two chloromethane in Shandong at the beginning of the week was 2883 yuan/ton, the average price of the weekend was 3200 yuan/ton, and the increase in the week reached 10.98%.

Ii. Analysis of Causes Product Reason: This week, due to Shandong Golden Ridge Chemical Maintenance, the overall supply of chloromethane market tension, enterprises and traders more limited shipments and low inventory. At present, the report price of bulk fish in Shandong area is about 3200 yuan/ton, about 4000 yuan/ton in Jiangsu area, and about 3650 yuan/ton in Jiangxi area.

In terms of start-up, the current jinling chemical plant maintenance, recovery time is undetermined; dongying Jinmao operation; Luxi chemical Plant started 60%; Jiangsu Liwen Plant started normal; Jiangxi Liwen Plant normal operation. Industrial chain: Upstream, the domestic methanol market is mixed, the mainland local higher, downstream replenishment and late part of the installation of parking and other good news support, the mainland part of the market shipment is fair, coupled with the recent increase in freight costs caused by increased arrival cost, local continued increase, the current average price reported 2248 yuan/ton, the liquid chlorine market is stable and weak Enterprise Library pressure is larger, north China Enterprises more quotes 1 yuan/ton or so, subsidized freight 100 yuan/ton, east China affected by maintenance, more than 500 yuan/ton.

Downstream, R22 refrigerant market overall start rate of about 60%, the market trading flat, now the Enterprise Scatterwater Factory reported 18500-18800 yuan/ton. Industry: According to business price monitoring, in the 18th Week of 2019 (5.6-5.10) commodity prices rose and fell in the chemical sector a total of 24 kinds of goods, of which more than 5% of the total number of goods accounted for 3, accounting for the plate of 4.1% of goods monitored; The top 3 commodities were two Chloromethane (13.33%) , Trichloromethane (10.98%), Acetone (5.15%).

A total of 31 items fell in the ring, a total of 3 products fell above 5%, accounting for 4.1% of the number of goods monitored in the sector, and the first 3 of the decreases were hydrochloric acid (-34.43%), sulfuric acid (-21.48%) and ammonium chloride (-8.2%).

Third, the forecast of the aftermarket Business Society two Chloromethane data analysts believe that the current Chloromethane production enterprises overall start low, spot supply tight and low inventory, although the current downstream market demand is flat, but is about to enter the refrigerant demand season, it is expected that in the future a short period of time the Trichloromethane market high strong

Last week (April 29 May 3), the market supply was more abundant and the price of potassium chloride was stable.

May 6 China Potassium chloride Wholesale price index (CKPI) was 2217.44 points, down 0.52 points, or 0.02%, an increase of 120.44 points, or 5.74%, and a decrease of 1073.15 points over the base period. Supply situation: Domestic potassium, Qinghai Salt Lake Plant normal operation, Nissan 14000 tons or so; May Salt Lake Benchmark Products 60% Crystal powder to the station price unchanged, continue to maintain 2350 yuan/ton, but the rebate policy changed to 50 Yuan/ton; dealer Inventory is OK, the regional transaction price is stable, in 2200-2250 yuan/ton or so. Import potassium, port inventory is higher, maintained at about 2.05 million tons; 62% Russian white potassium offer to maintain about 2350-2400 yuan/ton, but the actual transaction price has a discount.

Border trade potassium aspect, the arrival quantity is less, according to the demand to take the goods mainly, 62% Russian white potassium quotation maintains 2150 yuan/ton about. Demand situation: Spring ploughing is basically over, only some rice fertilizer in northeast China, the demand for potash fertilizer is light.

Compound fertilizer enterprises began to stabilize, the overall construction rate of enterprises to maintain a high, the demand for potassium fertilizer has a certain support. International market: International potash demand suspended, last week international potassium chloride prices remained stable. On the price side, the fob prices of potassium chloride in Canada, the Russian Federation, Jordan, Israel, South-East Asia and Brazil remained stable at $253-298/ton, USD 236-311/ton, 263-287 USD/ton, USD 263-312/ton, 290-310 USD/ton, 340-350 USD/
Tons.
Table: International potassium chloride price change table
Products
Regional
Degree of change
(USD/T)
Spot price (USD/T)
2019-5-2
2019-4-25
Potassium chloride
(FOB Bulk)
Canada
0-0
253-298
253-298
Russian Federation
0-0
236-311
236-311
Jordan
0-0
263-287
263-287
Israel
0-0
263-312
263-312
CFR Southeast Asia
0-0
290-310
290-310
CFR Brazil
0-0
340-350

340-350

Data source: According to the relevant material collation Domestic market: The recent domestic potassium chloride market price is mixed. Association monitoring data show that domestic potassium chloride provinces wholesale prices, Fujian, Hunan, Jiangxi province Price compared to the previous week 50 Yuan/ton, 30 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, Hainan, Hubei province prices compared to the previous week fell 50 Yuan/ton, 36.5 yuan/ton, other provinces prices remained stable

Import potassium chloride Provinces wholesale prices, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi Province price than the previous week rose 96.7 Yuan/ton, 50 Yuan/ton, 20 yuan/ton, Hainan Province price compared to the previous week down 50 yuan/ton, other provinces prices remained stable.
Table: Domestic potassium chloride price change table
Varieties
Provinces
2019-5-2
(RMB/ton)
2019-4-25
(RMB/ton)
Price
(RMB/ton)
Chain
Domestic potassium chloride
Wholesale price
Fujian
3,150.0
3,100.0
50
1.6%
Hunan
2,300.0
2,270.0
30
1.3%
Jiangxi
2,400.0
2,390.0
10
0.4%
Hubei
2,246.0
2,282.5
-36.5
-1.6%
Hainan
3,250.0
3,300.0
-50
-1.5%
Imported Potassium chloride
Wholesale price
Hubei
2,786.7
2,690.0
96.7
3.6%
Hunan
2,450.0
2,400.0
50
2.1%
Jiangxi
2,730.0
2,710.0
20
0.7%
Hainan
3,575.0
3,625.0
-50

-1.4%

Source: China Agricultural Capital Circulation Association At present, the supply of potash fertilizer market is still plentiful, the port potash fertilizer inventory is high, but the new single deal of potash fertilizer is insufficient, demand support is limited, potassium chloride price is stable. After the market, compound fertilizer enterprises into the summer fertilizer production cycle, the demand for potassium fertilizer increased, but the current supply of potash fertilizer is sufficient, dealer inventory is OK; international markets, international potash demand slowed down, short-term prices temporarily stable. In summary, it is expected that the domestic potassium chloride price in the short term will be stable operation, focusing on the demand for potash fertilizer.