Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, the average price of n-butanol as of July 12 was 6233.33 yuan/ton (including taxes), which was 1.91% higher than July 5. At present, the mainstream price of n-butanol in China is about 6200-6300 yuan/ton.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, the n-butanol market continues to rise steadily and steadily driven by cost. Some manufacturers are affected by losses. It is not excluded that the starting load will be reduced. In late July, some manufacturers have parking plans.

Industry chain: Mainstream price of propylene in upstream products has been continuously rising, refinery inventory is low, the situation of propylene supply and demand has not been significantly alleviated, and the overall market trading situation is relatively stable.

3. Future Market Forecast

Forecast: Mainstream price of n-butanol will remain stable in late July.

I. Rising and falling lists

According to the price monitoring of business associations, 23 kinds of commodities rose in the price rise-fall list of 58 commodities in the 27th week (7.8-7.12) of 2019, mainly in the energy sector (6 kinds) and steel sector (5 kinds). More than 5% of the commodities increased mainly in the agricultural and sideline sectors; the first three commodities increased were eggs (8.30%), WTI crude oil (4.68%) and gasoline (4.10%). 。 There were 25 kinds of goods falling in the ring ratio, mainly in chemical industry (4 kinds) and textile (4 kinds). The first three items falling were natural rubber (-4.52%), cotton yarn 21S (-3.61%) and polyester POY (-3.45%). Tianjiao dropped sharply in the second week of July, ranking first in the list with a decline of 4.52%.

II. Commodity Index

On July 15, the natural rubber commodity index was 31.26, up 0.06 points from yesterday, down 68.74% from the 100.00 point in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 11.05% from the 28.15 point on November 25, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

3. Market Trend

In the first half of the year, the market of natural rubber has been on the ups and downs. The first quarter experienced a sharp increase of nearly 10% in February, and fell back to the starting line in March. The second quarter rebounded 4% in April and then started the decline mode until the last trading day when the Customs announced the policy of “mixing rubber classification” began to rise. In May, the price of rubber continued to rise. The impact of classification and inspection of mixed rubber, high temperature and drought and insect pests was tremendous. Especially, the shortage of new rubber supply caused worries about future supply. The price of Tianguo had risen by 10%, followed by a drop in sentiment and a three-point decline in the price shock of rubber. June continued to suffer from weak shocks, falling by 5.7% that month, which was called “business is very difficult to do”. After July, the date of No. 20 rubber market was fixed, which had a great impact on the whole latex. In addition, the peak season of rubber production gradually came and the downstream demand did not improve. Tianguo continued to decline and its weakness remained. On the 9th day, the lowest point of Shanghai RU1909 contract was 10580 points and the closing point was 10810 points, with a decline of 4.62%, which was the biggest drop in one day in the past six months. The data show that in 17 years, the mainstream price of SCRWF was 11290 yuan/ton on the 1st day, 10540 yuan/ton on the 15th day, and the half-month drop was as high as 6.64%. The highest price was 11290 yuan/ton on the 1st day, the lowest was 10520 yuan/ton on the 13th day, and the biggest drop was 6.82% in the half-month.

IV. Factor Analysis

Output: The high temperature and drought in rubber producing areas at home and abroad were alleviated at the end of last month, and gradually entered the peak season of rubber production. The expected market supply increased dramatically and the price was under pressure. According to traders, the purchasing price of glue in rubber producing areas in China has continued to decline, falling below 10 yuan/kg this month. Recent glue supply pressures in Southeast Asia have also increased significantly. The overall price of raw materials has declined. Expectations of increased domestic supply have dragged down prices. Corresponding to the measures taken by rubber-producing countries to boost rubber prices, Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia have decided from April to July in response to the downturn in the market of Tianguo. Thai Prime Minister Bayu recently said that Thailand would increase domestic rubber consumption to boost the depressed price of rubber by increasing its use in road construction.

Demand and Inventory: On demand, downstream consumption is in the off-season. According to statistics, China’s tire production and export volume has declined in October, and demand is not optimistic. China Automobile Circulation Association: In June 2019, the inventory warning index of automobile dealers was 50.4%, 3.6 percentage points lower than the previous year, 8.8 percentage points lower than the previous year, and the automobile inventory warning index was still above the warning line; moreover, according to statistics, China’s tire production and export volume had declined continuously in October, and the demand was not optimistic. Inventory data show that the stock outside the bonded area has been declining in the near future, and the impact on the market has been reduced in the near future. Stock on the exchange is still at a high level, and warehouse receipt inventory on July 12 is still at a high level of more than 400,000.

Policy aspect: The recent downward trend of Shanghai Rubber Co., Ltd. and the direct factor of its increase are the news that the No. 20 Rubber Co. will be listed next month. At present, the production of No. 20 glue in our country is very small, mainly dependent on imports, and is bonded transactions, US dollar valuation. After the listing of No. 20 rubber, we will adopt the “international platform, RMB valuation” as the listing mode, adopt the net price trading and bonded delivery scheme, and fully introduce foreign traders to participate. It is anticipated that a large number of funds and downstream enterprises will participate in hedging. For the current full latex Shanghai rubber, the capital will be withdrawn from the preparation of No. 20 rubber, delivery market will be staged ahead of schedule, RU1909 will face great pressure on warehouse receipts, and the decline in futures prices will intensify. After 20 According to the analysis, the premium of new glue in contract 01 will be greatly reduced, and theoretically the 1-9 price difference will gradually narrow and return to the normal level (the reasonable price difference of 1-9 is about 500-600 yuan/ton).

Relevant products: The commodity index of cis-butadiene rubber on July 14 was 31.70, which was the same as that of yesterday. It was 69.04% lower than the peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2011-09-25), 33.53% higher than the lowest point of 23.74 on February 04, 2015, and 32.73 on July 14, which was the same as that of yesterday, 103.60 points higher than the peak of the cycle (2011-0). 9-08) decreased by 68.41%, up 15.21% from the lowest point of 28.41 on January 19, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

Relevant hot spots:

Confirmation of Mixed Rubber: On April 28, the General Administration of Customs issued a notice requiring that the mixed rubber imported through customs declaration No. 40028000 should be inspected as a mixture of natural rubber and synthetic rubber. Although the announcement has been issued in February, its impact on the market continues to ferment, the import volume of Vietnam’s 3L rubber decreases, and the domestic price of 3L rubber is relatively strong. It has been reported that Chinese manufacturers have used domestic full latex to replace 3L in some processes, but the current replacement volume is not large, and the market is still paying close attention to customs inspection.

Promotion of automobile consumption: On June 6, the State Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Ecological Environment and the Ministry of Commerce jointly formulated and issued Notice No. 967 on Promoting the Renewal and Upgrading of Key Consumer Goods, Implementing the Unobstructed Recycling of Resources (2019-2020). It proposed resolutely breaking the barriers to passenger car consumption and strictly prohibiting it. Local governments should explore the policy of classified use of vehicles within and outside congested areas according to the specific conditions of cities, and in principle, they should not restrict the purchase of vehicles outside congested areas. They should vigorously promote the consumption and use of new energy vehicles, and all localities should not restrict the use of new energy vehicles. Policies should be abolished to “escort” the growth of automobile sales again. This is the fourth time in a month that the relevant state departments have promulgated good policies to boost automobile consumption.

The listing time of glue No. 20 is determined: On June 12, 2018, the application of glue No. 20 of Shanghai Futures Exchange (hereinafter referred to as “Shanghai Stock Exchange”) as a specific futures variety has been approved by CSRC. On July 5, 2019, the SFC approved the trading of No. 20 glue, urea and japonica rice futures contracts. The listing time is August 12, 2019, August 9 and August 16, 2019, respectively.

Thailand will increase its domestic use of natural rubber: Thai Prime Minister Ba Yu said recently that Thailand will increase its domestic consumption of rubber to boost the depressed price of rubber by increasing its use in road construction, according to foreign media on the 10th. He said that as one of the world’s largest producers of natural rubber, Thailand must put forward as many uses of rubber as possible, including the use of rubber for road construction.

V. Future Market Forecast

According to the natural rubber analysts of the business association, the output of natural rubber at home and abroad is in the peak season, the supply continues to increase, the stock is still at a high level, the demand downstream is light, and the contradiction of basic supply is intensified. At the moment when the impact of 3L rubber customs classification and inspection is weakened, the impact of the August listing of No. 20 rubber has been 10 days, and the market of Tianjiao rubber continues to decline. Beware of the large fluctuation of Tianguo market in the case of late price difference regression and withdrawal of funds from the whole latex.

Price Trend

According to the data from the business associations’list, domestic pure benzene prices continued to rise sharply last week, rising by 50-200 yuan/ton. This week, the highest price of pure benzene appeared on Friday, with prices ranging from 5000-5250 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.39% over last week.

II. Analytical Review

1. Products: Pure benzene continued to rise this week. Data released at the beginning of the month showed that only 20,000 tons of pure benzene were imported into Korea in June, with imports falling sharply compared with the previous five months. Pure benzene in Korea is arbitraged to the United States. Pure benzene in the United States continued to soar this week, stimulating sentiment in the domestic pure benzene market.

2. Crude Oil: Tension in Iran and the extension of OPEC’s cut-off agreement earlier this week pushed up oil prices, but mixed economic data limited oil price increases. Starting Wednesday, oil prices in Europe and the United States began to rise sharply as EIA data showed that U.S. crude oil stocks fell sharply in the week ending July 5, and the Gulf of Mexico storm cut nearly a third of U.S. offshore crude oil production. Overall, the increase was more than 4.5% over last week.

3. Downstream: The price of styrene rose first and then fell in the downstream of this week. Overall, the price of styrene fell by 0.55% compared with last week, which had little impact on the price of pure benzene.

4. External Disk: There is a supply gap of pure benzene in the United States. This week, pure benzene in the United States continued to rise, stimulating the domestic market.

3. Future Market Forecast

1. Crude oil: Next week, although the OPEC cut-off agreement will be extended and US crude oil stocks will decline for three consecutive weeks, there are still worries about the slowdown of economic growth and uncertainty in Sino-US trade negotiations. It is expected that there will be a slight increase in international oil prices next week.

2. Domestic market: At present, the decrease of pure benzene supply is the most important factor to support the price increase, but the downstream resistance to high-price pure benzene is obvious, which may restrain the increase of pure benzene.

Considering comprehensively, the pure benzene market will continue to increase slightly next week.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the distribution price of sulphuric acid in Shandong rose slightly this week. The quotation rose from 222.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 230.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 7.50 yuan/ton, up 3.37%, down 50.27% from the same period last year. Overall, the sulfuric acid market rose this week, with the sulfuric acid commodity index of 35.80 on July 12.

II. Market Analysis

(1) Products:

This week, the prices of some sulphuric acid manufacturers in Shandong rose slightly, with fewer inventories and fewer downstream demand. Heze Jiangyuan’s quotation increased from 190 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 220 yuan/ton at the end of the week, and the quotation increased by 30 yuan/ton; Zouping Tianlu’s quotation was 150 yuan/ton, which was temporarily stable; Jinan Yuanfei’s quotation was 450 yuan/ton, which was temporarily stable; Dezhou Meihua’s quotation was 100 yuan/ton, which was temporarily stable.

(2) Industrial chain:

Recently, the domestic sulfur market has rebounded from the bottom, but the increase is limited; the downstream ammonium market is light, the new orders are not satisfactory, the atmosphere is not good, the diammonium market is relatively stable, the high position is strong, the sulfuric acid enterprises have multiple early orders, the short-term start is insufficient, and the supply is slightly tight. This week, domestic sulphuric acid plants run smoothly, market supply is relatively tight, downstream gas purchases are general, market turnover is limited.

3. Future Market Forecast

After the adjustment in June, the capital reflux of each factory is in good condition, the equipment has been repaired and the production capacity has increased. Upstream prices fell slightly, downstream purchases were general, and products went down under the contradiction between supply and demand. Business sulfuric acid analysts believe that the short-term market in Shandong Province, under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials, the sulfuric acid market tends to decline.

Price Trend

The domestic ethanol market rose and fell unevenly this week. According to the monitoring data of business associations, the price of domestic ethanol market was 5364 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 5370 yuan/ton at the end of the week. Within the week, the price of domestic ethanol market rose by 0.11% and fell by 1.35% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the alcohol market has gone up and down differently. In Northeast China this week, low prices continue to pop up. Some enterprises sell large quantities of alcohol at ultra-low prices, high-end supplies are not smooth, and the market goes down. The downstream ethyl acetate enterprises begin to purchase. When the enterprise’s inventory is consumed, they thought that the price will rise later this week, but due to internal reasons, the current price will be maintained. Low-level; Xinheyang plant in Henan province opened, thick source plant stopped for environmental protection reasons, Huaxing maintained a line of production, market prices maintained strong because of good supply side; raw cassava prices in East China continued to rise, cost pressures large enterprises started lower, weak downstream demand market transaction weak finishing; Continuous low-price explosion, stable production, individual molasses enterprises due to the impact of raw material supply in the short-term parking plan, is expected to start the next squeezing season, Luocheng Kechao and Chongzuoxin and short-term driving plan, Zhanjiang Leizhou Runtai in Guangdong Province, continuous parking, market quotations remain stable, downstream ethyl acetate production enterprises. Centralized purchase of raw materials; Yunnan Dabenfen molasses alcohol enterprises due to raw material factors under the device shutdown, Yunnan Kewei, Hongtai sugar industry plant shutdown, limited inventory prices on the high side.

Industry Chain: Corn: With the auctioning grain flowing to the market one after another, the deep processing enterprises in the main producing areas have sufficient arrivals, the purchase price has been reduced, the short-term market supply is relatively loose, and the auction cost has formed a bottom support for the price of corn. Some trading enterprises actively released their warehouses. Some corn deep processing enterprises are about to be repaired in summer. In addition, the demand for breeding is currently in a relatively stable state. Therefore, we predict that in the context of the continued entry of grain auctions into the market, the corn market will experience a more likely period of weak adjustment until the end of the auction. However, from the overall trend, the late corn market is still bullish. Ethyl acetate: This week, the domestic market for ethyl acetate was weak. At the beginning of the week, the offer price of North China’s production enterprises was slightly adjusted, which led to lower prices in some negotiations in the markets of East China and North China. The market in East and South China is in the off-season, and the mainstream enterprises are still competing. However, the price of raw material production enterprises is in the stage of loss. Although there is pressure of shipment, the cost pressure supports the stable implementation of the offer of ethyl acetate production enterprises. The supply of new arrivals in the shipment market in South China this week is relatively abundant, and it is difficult to form a favorable support for the market just in need of purchase downstream, which leads to the weak market of ethyl acetate at different stages.

3. Future Market Forecast

After the price of Northeast China falls this week, the order is large and the stock is not high, but the market remains stable or fluctuates to a certain extent due to the uncertain factors of structural adjustment of an enterprise; the construction situation of East China under the influence of high cost does not show any improvement in the short term, and the price of East China is short under the impact of low price goods in Northeast China. Inside the line, it will continue to be weak; Henan will restore stability in the short term, and the vulnerable downward trend will not be ruled out under the impact of low-price goods from other places. The low-end prices in South China are close to the cost line at present. The willingness of enterprises to pull up is obvious, but the demand for liquor downstream is light, and the short-term market is expected to run steadily. Ethanol analysts at business associations expect the domestic ethanol market to remain stable in the short term.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, the market price of aniline in Nanjing this week rose by 100 yuan/ton less than last week, an increase of 1.6% compared with last week, while the price in Shandong remained stable. The mainstream price in Shandong is 5730 yuan/ton, while that in Jiangsu is 6150 yuan/ton.

II. Analytical Review

Raw Material: This week, the domestic pure benzene market is very enthusiastic. Monday was the beginning of the month, as the contract delivery task was completed at the end of June, the enthusiasm for market surge eased. On Tuesday, news began that South Korea exported only 20,000 tons of pure benzene to China in June, and the stock of East China Port declined, boosting the market, the market sentiment was strong.

Product: The raw material pure benzene market is in a strong mood of speculation. The bidding price of pure benzene of main aniline enterprises is higher than last week. The cost of aniline is upside down, but the downstream follow-up is insufficient. The aniline shipment is general.

Downstream: This week, MDI rose sharply and then fell, up 0.81% from last week as a whole.

III. Future Market Expectations

Sinopec’s listing price still lags behind the spot market. There is still much room for the increase of listing price in July, which boosts the market. Moreover, the inventory of East China Port has been declining, and the pick-up speed has been significantly improved compared with the previous period, and the market is expected to be further supported.

Due to high temperature and environmental protection inspection, the downstream start-up rate is not high, and the demand for aniline is light. But at present, the cost pressure of aniline is enormous, and there is a certain upstream space.

Aniline is expected to rise steadily next week.

Price Trend

In June 2019, the market of butadiene fluctuated lower. Business Association monitoring showed that the price of butadiene at the beginning of the month was 8551 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the price of butadiene was 8407 yuan/ton, with a drop of 1.75% in the month. Prices fell by 23.21% over the same period last year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: In June, the domestic butadiene market showed a weak overall performance although there was a slight fluctuation in the market within the month. As of the 28th, Sinopec’s supply price was 8600-8700 yuan/ton, up 100-200 yuan/ton from the end of last month; the base price of Liaotong Chemical Bidding was down 800 yuan/ton to 8010 yuan/ton from last month, and the trading range dropped about 900 yuan/ton. At the end of May and the beginning of June, new equipment was put into operation in Jiutai, Inner Mongolia, and a small amount of spot was flowing into the downstream factories in the north. In addition, the supply and flow pats at some nodes of Fushun Petrochemical Company aggravated the downstream wait-and-see mentality. The spot market in the North continued to decline slightly in early June. With the gradual accumulation of demand in the north and the relative concentration of replenishment in the middle of the month, a large increase in the price of a small amount of goods in the North has been boosted, which has prompted the market to rise rapidly. However, with the decrease of synthetic rubber price and the flow of goods in Fushun Petrochemical Company, the market has rapidly turned downward. Within the month, the price difference between inside and outside is hanging upside down, and the arrival of imported goods is limited, but the inquiry intention in the lower reaches of East China is low, the market supply and demand are weak, and the market fluctuation is not large. Overall, the market range of butadiene shocks in the month.

Installation: Liaoyang Petrochemical 30,000 tons/year butadiene extraction plant stopped around June 5, and the expected maintenance time lasted 30-40 days. Shandong Wanda 60,000 tons/year butadiene plant continued to stop within a month, there is no clear start-up plan. Jiutai oxidation dehydrogenation unit in Inner Mongolia operates at low load within a month and has limited export. Puyang Bluestar 50,000 tons/year butadiene plant stopped for overhaul on June 27, with an estimated duration of about 10 days. Lanzhou Petrochemical’s 135,000 tons/year butadiene plant was restarted around June 27, and its normal output is expected to resume in July. The MTO plant in Chengzhi upstream of Nanjing was commissioned on June 26, and the commissioning time of butadiene plant is expected to be in early July.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in June 2019, there were 34 commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which 11 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 13.1% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top three commodities were epichlorohydrin (20.33%), hydrochloric acid (20.00%) and calcium carbide (11.04%). There are 43 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 19% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are hydrogen peroxide (-21.81%), silicone DMC (-17.38%) and butanone (-13.71%). This month’s average rise and fall was -0.38%.

3. Future Market Forecast

In the future, the positive side is that due to the upside-down price of the internal and external plates, the arrival of shipments in June is limited, and the downstream just needs to be supported. On the negative side, the July load of the Jiutai plant in Inner Mongolia may increase, while the July output of Chengzhi in Nanjing still needs attention. The spot resources in the north are abundant. With the reboot of the Korean plant, the external supply and demand are weak, and there is no lack of expectations of decline. Judging from July, the load of Jiutai plant in Inner Mongolia may increase, the spot supply in the north is still abundant, the downstream just needs to follow up limited, and the market may continue to be weak. Outside, as South Korea’s equipment returned to normal operation, supply and demand weakened dragged down, the current high price market is not without falling expectations. With the normalization of price differentials between the north and the south of China and at home and abroad, the performance of the East China market is under pressure, and the news of Chengzhi’s new production capacity in Nanjing has an impact on the mentality of some businessmen. In a comprehensive consideration, butadiene analysts of business associations expect that the domestic butadiene trend will continue to be weak in July, and the market will continue to explore possibilities.

Price trends:

The price of acetic anhydride rose steadily in June, according to the data of business associations. As of June 28, the average price quoted by acetic anhydride enterprises was 5066.67 yuan/ton, which was 4633.33 yuan/ton compared with the price quoted by acetic anhydride at the beginning of the month. The price rose by 9.35%, and the price fell by 36.96% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market analysis:

Product analysis:

On June 28, the acetic anhydride commodity index was 100.42, which was the same as yesterday. It was 39.41% lower than the cyclical peak of 165.73 points (2018-06-19), and 21.60% higher than the lowest point of 82.58 on September 20, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date). As of June 28, most of the region’s ex-factory quotations were between 5000 and 5200 yuan/ton, with the actual transaction price rising. The market quotation is the reference price, and the actual transaction price is based on the actual negotiation. At the end of June, some acetic anhydride factories stopped their equipment, the starting rate dropped, and the supply of acetic anhydride decreased. At the same time, the downstream sales of acetic anhydride were general. The market of acetic anhydride in the future was mixed, and acetic anhydride had a certain upward momentum.

Factor analysis of industrial chain:

The price of acetic acid rose first and then fell in June. The overall price of acetic acid rose by 5.43% in June. In the first half of June, the price of acetic acid rose sharply, which was good for acetic anhydride. The price of acetic anhydride followed the rise. Since June 16, the price of acetic acid fell sharply and the market of acetic anhydride was bad. However, the price of acetic anhydride continued to rise because of the shutdown of equipment in acetic anhydride enterprises, the decrease of supply of acetic anhydride, and the overall price of acetic anhydride continued to

In June, methanol prices tumbled by 6.6%, negative for acetic anhydride. In the first half of June, the price of methanol dropped sharply, followed by the price of acetic anhydride. Then, with the cost of raw materials of acetic anhydride rising sharply, the price of acetic anhydride rose. After that, the price of methanol remained stable and had little impact on the price of acetic anhydride. The overall methanol price has no driving force for the future market of acetic anhydride.

3. Future market forecast:

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of acetic anhydride data from business associations, believes that acetic acid, the raw material of acetic anhydride, rose first and then fell, and overall shocks rose in June; methanol price shocks fell, acetic anhydride costs rose, and acetic anhydride prices rose. Since the latter part of the year, the price of acetic acid has fallen, the cost of raw materials for acetic anhydride has fallen, and the market for acetic anhydride has been negative. But in the latter part of the year, the equipment of acetic anhydride manufacturers stopped, the inventory of acetic anhydride manufacturers was low, the price of acetic anhydride rose against the trend, and the market of acetic anhydride rose. However, with the stable start-up rate of acetic anhydride manufacturers, the momentum of acetic anhydride rising in the future is weakened, while the price fluctuations of acetic acid and methanol remain stable, and the momentum of acetic anhydride rising is insufficient. In June, the market of acetic anhydride continued to rise, and the momentum of acetic anhydride rising in the future was insufficient, which made it difficult to sustain the continued rise of the price of acetic anhydride.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, toluene market prices in China were high and volatile this week, but they were higher than last week. Prices of enterprises were stable at the beginning of the week and continued to rise from mid-week to weekend. At the beginning of the week, the average price of enterprises was 5,000 yuan per ton per week, and at the end of the week, the average price of enterprises was 5,073 yuan per ton per week, with a weekly increase of 1.47%.

II. Analytical Review

1. Products: Toluene market prices were stable in the early part of this week. Due to the impact of crude oil on prices in the middle of the week, the current market mainstream transaction price is around 5180-5230 yuan/ton. Downstream demand has improved. Port stocks have consumed China. Stocks in the eastern region are around 38,000 tons, down by about 60,000 tons from 44,000 tons on Thursday, June 13.

2. Industrial chain:

On the upstream side, in terms of crude oil, international oil prices fell first and then rose this week, with a slight overall rise. Geographical tensions between the United States and Iraq, increased supply contraction expectations and the Fed’s interest rate cut expectations are the main positive factors. Brent crude oil ranges from $60.01 to $64.38 per ton, with weekly low prices on June 18 and weekly high prices on the weekend, with a weekly amplitude of about 3.82%.

On the downstream side, PXN fell to $317.045/ton due to the sharp rise in oil prices and naphtha. The PX market is currently tight in July and August, and PTA and polyester are showing a rising trend, which supports PX and makes PX stronger. On the TDI market, the market warmed up slightly last week, the signs of the downstream surge weakened, and the turnover was slightly unsatisfactory. Second-hand merchants liquidated their positions and terminal warehouses increased. Mainly. Overall demand has improved.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of toluene in the branch of business society and chemical industry believe that, in a word, the market of toluene is expected to fluctuate strongly next week. Next week, oil prices are expected to remain stable at high levels, with weak momentum to continue to move upwards, and US crude oil is expected to stabilize at $55 a barrel. PX downstream market has been supported, prices are still rising trend; next week, under TDI supply and demand game, expected volume contraction, there is no lack of small potential for growth, demand has improved, toluene market is strong next week.

SITUATION: Shanghai International Energy Trading Center SC1908 opened at 433.5 yuan/barrel, with a maximum of 445 yuan/barrel, a minimum of 432.3 yuan/barrel and a closing price of 439.5 yuan/barrel, up 13.8 yuan/barrel from the previous trading day, an increase of 3.24%. Volume fell to 444.5 million hands, while position decreased by 3,798 to 46,746 hands.

Macroscopic information: 1. On Friday (June 21), the Central Bank of China announced that the intermediate price of RMB against the US dollar was 6.8472, up 333 basis points from the previous trading day.

Industry chain information: 1. Iranian Revolutionary Guard shot down an American UAV in Iranian airspace, which intensified tensions between the United States and Iran. U.S. President Trump called Iran’s shooting down of U.S. military UAVs “a very big mistake”. Iran responded that the UAV was spying in Iranian airspace. 2. Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister said Thursday (June 20) that Iran has created a serious situation and threatened the global oil supply with its aggression. Saudi Arabia added that it would then consult with its allies; both the United States and Saudi Arabia accused Iran of having attacked oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, but Tehran denied involvement.

Spot price: Oman crude oil spot price on June 20 was 62.59 US dollars per barrel, up 1.4 US dollars per barrel from the previous day (RMB exchange rate on that day was 430.7 RMB yuan per barrel); Shengli crude oil spot price was 56.24 US dollars per barrel, up 1.17 US dollars per barrel from the previous day.

Warehouse receipt inventory: The number of warehouses designated by Shanghai International Energy Exchange Center for delivery is 3066,000 barrels, which is unchanged from the previous trading day.

Summary of viewpoints: International crude oil futures prices have risen sharply, Asian market continues to rise, Brent crude oil futures prices are at 64.9 US dollars per barrel, WTI crude oil futures prices are at 57.3 US dollars per barrel, Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil prices are at about 7.6 US dollars per barrel, Shanghai crude oil futures prices have risen sharply, about 0.7 US dollars per barrel than Brent crude oil. The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates unchanged and the tone of its policy statement shifted to the pigeon; China and the United States are expected to resume trade negotiations, ease trade concerns and revive risk sentiment to boost the atmosphere of the oil market; Saudi Arabia said that OPEC and other non-OPEC oil-producing countries should extend their production reduction agreements, and OPEC is close to reaching agreement on extending their production reduction agreements; the OPEC meeting was set to be held in early July, and Russia has not yet made a statement on extending production reduction. State. EIA data showed that U.S. crude oil inventories fell more than expected last week, with U.S. crude oil production falling by 100,000 barrels to 12.2 million barrels per day; tensions between the United States and Iran intensified, Iran shot down a U.S. military UAV, the market was worried about the risk of military conflict, and geopolitical tensions warmed up the atmosphere of the oil market. Technically, the contract of SC1908 has risen sharply, with the average of 5 days at the futures station and the regional pressure of 445-450 above, and the futures price of short-term Shanghai crude oil shows a volatile upward trend. Operationally, we recommend 425-450 yuan/barrel interval trading.