Price data

Domestic 93 # Gasoline Distribution Average Price Trend Chart

Average Distribution Price Trend Chart of 0# Diesel Oil in China

According to the price monitoring of business associations, gasoline and diesel prices fell this week, domestic gasoline prices were 6534 yuan/ton, 0.16% lower than last week’s gasoline prices; domestic diesel prices were 6414 yuan/ton, down 1.96% from last week’s diesel prices.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: At 24:00 on August 6, the price of refined oil was lowered. This week, the international oil price showed a sharp decline trend. A new round of negative price adjustment of refined oil started. As of August 8, the latest crude oil change rate monitored by business associations was – 2.04%. The purchase intention of refined oil market was relatively low.

Industry Chain: On international crude oil, Trump once again overturned his previous commitment to impose a 10% tariff on 300 billion Chinese exports in September, and the EIA crude oil inventory report was skewed to suppress crude oil prices. The price of WTI crude oil once approached the $50/barrel threshold. On August 9, the price of WTI crude oil was $52.54/barrel, with a weekly decline of 5.61%.

Market: This week’s sharp decline in international oil prices has depressed the refined oil market. For gasoline, refinery stocks are running at low levels, and the prices of alkylated oil and MTBE and other accessories are basically stable, which supports the price of gasoline, so the weekly decline of gasoline is only 0.16%. On the diesel side, this week’s persistent high temperature and rainy weather and typhoon warning have also brought pressure on terminal demand for refined oil, so the price of diesel oil market follows the pace of crude oil decline. On the supply side, according to statistics, the operating rate of main refineries is about 79% recently, which is about 2% higher than that of last week. The operating rate of atmospheric and vacuum distillation in Shandong Province is about 63%, which is about 3% higher than that of last week. Increased supply is also one aspect of suppressing the market price of refined oil.

3. Future Market Forecast

Lu Xingjun, an analyst of refined oil products from business associations, believes that the possibility of a substantial recovery in international oil prices next week is low, and it is expected that low volatility will run. The gasoline and diesel market is still confident in the “gold, silver and ten” peak demand season, and supports the price of refined oil. It is expected that the price of refined oil market will stabilize and improve next week.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, the price trend of cryolite market was stable this week, and the average price of cryolite market was stable at about 6333.33 yuan/ton during the week, down 3.62% from the same period last year. The Cryolite Commodity Index on August 9 was 76.92, unchanged from yesterday, down 24.00% from 101.21 points in the cycle (2011-10-31), and up 15.93% from 66.35 points on September 05, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

II. Market Analysis

Products: Cryolite prices have been running steadily this week, and there is no obvious price adjustment for manufacturers. As of the 9th, Zibo Kunyu Industry and Trade Cryolite quoted 6500 yuan/ton; Changshu Hongjiafu Co., Ltd. Cryolite quoted 7200 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from last week; Jiaozuo Minli Industrial Cryolite quoted 7000 yuan/ton; Zhengzhou Tianrui Cryolite quoted 6500 yuan/ton; Shandong Botao Group Co., Ltd. Cryolite quoted 7000 yuan/ton / Tons.

Industry chain: This week, the price of fluorite in the upstream of cryolite slightly decreased. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic market was about 312.50 yuan/ton. At the end of the week, the average price of domestic market was about 3106.25 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.20%, an increase of 16.34% over the previous year. The price trend of fluorite in the upstream slightly declined, mainly due to the imbalance of domestic supply and demand, the poor market of fluorite on-site, and the high start-up rate of fluorite plant on-site. However, the downstream demand situation is general, the spot supply of fluorite on-site is sufficient, and the price of fluorite on-site has a downward trend. As for downstream electrolytic aluminium, the price of aluminium has been on the upstream trend this week. At the beginning of the week, the price remained around 13856.67 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, it was about 13953.33 yuan/ton, with a 0.70% rise.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of cryolite products from business associations believe that: at present, the price quoted by cryolite manufacturers is multi-dimensional and stable, the equipment is running normally, the stock is sufficient and the shipment is acceptable, and the market of cryolite is expected to be stable in the later period.

Price Trend

Styrene prices fell slightly this week. According to data from business associations, the prices of sample enterprises on Monday (July 29) were 8 650.00 yuan/ton, and on Friday (August 02), the prices of sample enterprises were 8 583.33 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.77%, which was 27.97% lower than that of the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products:

The market for styrene fell this week. On July 29, East China Styrene closed at 8650 yuan/ton and August 2 at 8500-8650 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton. The above is Zhangjiagang’s canning price. On July 29, South China Styrene closed at 9,000-9,100 yuan per ton and delivered at 8,950-9,000 yuan per ton on August 2, down 50 yuan per ton. Since mid-July, domestic maintenance facilities have been restarted one after another. At present, the supply of styrene in East China is relatively loose, and the arrival of imported styrene has increased. In the future, some of the goods coming to South China are expected to be on the tight side. In the Middle East, the arrival of styrene in South China will be reduced.

Industry chain:

Pure styrene and ethylene prices both rose this week, styrene prices fell weakly and overall profits of styrene were squeezed. Upstream pure benzene prices rose slightly, with a price of 5210.40 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 5230.40 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 0.38%. At the beginning of the week, the price of ethylene was 874.50 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, it was 891.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.94%. Downstream PS slightly declined, EPS prices stabilized, downstream enterprises generally start-up rate, downstream buying is not active, Styrene Market fell.

3. Future Market Forecast

In the second half of the year, domestic styrene plants were restarted more, and the upstream trend of styrene was strong, while the downstream was caused by China-US relations and the domestic housing and automotive industry depression. Demand was weak. On-demand goods were available on the market. Business analysts believed that the styrene market would continue to decline slightly under the interweaving of many empties. The market should pay more attention to the guidance of the external market and the trend of bulk futures.

Price Trend

According to the data monitored by business associations, the price of domestic carbon black quoted 6,900 yuan/ton on July 31, with a slight fluctuation and a price fluctuation range of 100-300 yuan/ton, the market of carbon black is stable this month, and the low-level operation is the main one.

In 2018, after a sharp fall in the carbon black market, it is difficult for prices to rise again. Prices fluctuated slightly throughout the first half of 2019, rearranged and maintained at 6,000-6,500 yuan/ton, and there was no further sharp rise or fall in the market.

II. Market Analysis

Industry chain: In the first half of 2019, the terminal tire market started to decline compared with last year. In the first half of the year, due to the reduction of terminal car sales, combined with trade and other factors, the tire factory started to decline. Due to the decline in start-up, the demand for carbon black in tire market in the first half of the year decreased by 706,600 tons compared with last year, and the demand decreased considerably, which limited the growth of the whole carbon black market and caused serious losses. In the second half of the year, due to the decrease of downstream demand and the off-season of downstream demand in July and August, the trend of carbon black falling easily and rising difficultly will continue.

Listed company:

On the evening of July 12, Longxing Chemical disclosed its semi-annual performance forecast for 2019. The company estimated that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies from January to June 2019 was between 8 million yuan and 12 million yuan, down 81.02% to 87.35% from the previous year.

Longxing Chemical Main Products Carbon Black, Silica Black, Electricity, Steam and Industrial Naphthalene and other chemical products. As for the reasons for the decline in performance in the first half of 2019, the company said that during the reporting period, due to the dramatic decline in automobile production and sales, the downstream tire market start-up rate was lower than the same period last year, and the demand for carbon black in the tire market was lower. At the same time, with the release of new carbon black production capacity, the price competition in the carbon black industry was further intensified. Competition, raw coal tar market prices run at a high level, the common impact of carbon black gross interest rates significantly decreased year-on-year. The report of the first quarter of 2019 issued by the four major carbon black listed companies in China shows that the net profit of the four companies has declined dramatically, even a huge quarterly loss of more than 74 million yuan.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Society Chemical Branch carbon black data analysts believe that: due to the downstream demand reduction, coupled with July and August for the downstream demand off-season, the trend of carbon black easy to fall and difficult to rise will continue, short-term has not been significantly positive, the market is expected to continue to operate at a low level.

Price Trend

The domestic market of cyclohexanone rose narrowly this week. According to the monitoring data of business associations, the average price of domestic producers of cyclohexanone was 8300 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 8566 yuan/ton at the end of the week. The price rose by 3.21% in the week, falling by 28.61% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, the cyclohexanone market is running steadily upward. Sinopec’s pure benzene listing has been raised again by 100 yuan/ton to 5350 yuan/ton, with good cost support. Within a week, chemical fibers can still be purchased on the market. Hengyi, Shenyuan and other factories have increased the demand for cyclohexanone. Other factories have made up a small number of vacancies, and chemical fibers orders in cyclohexanone factories are still acceptable. Solvent market demand is general, and most of them are purchased on demand. Luxi Cyclohexanone has not been exported from stock for the time being, so the supply of Cyclohexanone is on the tight side. At present, the main price of cyclohexanone is 8800-8900 yuan per ton cash, up 400 yuan per ton from last Thursday. Up to now, the mainstream negotiation in Shandong market is in the range of 8900-9000 yuan/ton cash delivery, the mainstream negotiation in East China market is in the range of 9100-9300 yuan/ton cash delivery, and the mainstream negotiation in South China market is in the range of 9400-9600 yuan/ton cash delivery.

Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene, this week pure benzene prices soared and fell. At the beginning of the week, the inventory of East China Port continued to drop to about 170,000 tons. On the external market, the supply of the United States continues to be tight, and the operators believe that the arbitrage window between the United States and South Korea will be open for a long time. The decline of domestic stock and the high level of external market jointly led to the increase of domestic pure benzene quotation to 5600 yuan/ton, which is almost the same as FOB Korea price. However, the domestic downstream has little profit except styrene, strong resistance to high-priced pure benzene, and high selling price is difficult to respond to. Caprolactam: This week, the domestic caprolactam liquid spot market is basically stable. The atmosphere of supply and demand is slightly weak. With the restart of the pre-maintenance equipment, the overall start-up of caprolactam is improved, and the supply is increased.

3. Future Market Forecast

Cyclohexanone factory spot is not much, there is no inventory pressure, Luxi Cyclohexanone has the possibility of shipment in the near future. In the short run, the overall supply may increase steadily; in the long run, the early planned production of cyclohexanone plant in July, rumors have delayed the start-up time, and the possibility of new release capacity of cyclohexanone in the late part of the month is small. Cost side has some support, demand side, chemical fiber market gap still exists, the high rise is weak, and the profit margin is scarce, next week or slightly reduced. Cyclohexanone analysts at business associations expect high consolidation in the cyclohexanone market next week.

I. The price trend of epichlorohydrin:

The average price of epichlorohydrin as of July 26 was 17600.00 yuan/ton, which was the same as that of July 25. The market was temporarily stable, up 20.55% compared with July 1. On July 26, the mainstream price of epichlorohydrin in China ranged from 17100 to 18000 yuan/ton.

II. Market analysis:

Product: Epichlorohydrin market is stable for the time being. At present, the situation of spot supply is still tense, with high offers from the holders. With the rapid rise of prices to high levels, the downstream of high-price raw materials strong resistance, lack of purchasing intentions, weak trading atmosphere. At present, the mainstream quotation in the East China market is around 17500 yuan/ton, and the acceptance is delivered to the surrounding areas. Mainstream quotation in Shandong market is around 17200 yuan/ton, self-raised. Mainstream market quotation in Huangshan area is around 17 500 yuan/ton, acceptance delivery.

Industry chain: Upstream propylene 26 Shandong market prices are still rising. The price of propylene enterprises in Shandong Province rose in early July, experiencing two rounds of increase of about 600 yuan/ton. Since the 13th day, the price has gone down, totaling about 650 yuan/ton by the 19th day. After the two-day weekend stabilized, it began to rise on Monday. This week, it rose by about 250 yuan/ton. At present, the market turnover is around 7850-7950 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price is about 7850 yuan/ton.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, on July 26, 2019, there were 11 kinds of commodities rising annually in the chemical sector. The top three commodities were organosilicon DMC (4.35%), butadiene (1.65%) and ethylene glycol (1.52%). There are 14 kinds of products with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the monitored products in this sector. The products with the first three declines are hydrochloric acid (-5.26%), sulfuric acid (-3.09%) and octanol (-1.83%). The 26-day average rise and fall was -0.07%.

3. Future market forecast:

According to business associations, the domestic epichlorohydrin market will be dominated by high-level finishing in the short term.

Price Trend

The domestic butadiene market fell this week. Business Association monitoring showed that the domestic butadiene market price at the beginning of the week was 8490 yuan/ton, and the domestic butadiene price at the weekend was 8456 yuan/ton. Within the week, the price fell by 0.39%, 28.33% compared with the same period last year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: This week, the domestic butadiene market has been mainly reorganized. Sinopec’s supply price has stabilized at 8600-800 yuan/ton, and Liaotong Chemical Industry’s bottom bidding price has been lowered by 300 yuan/ton to 8310 yuan/ton. Although last week Huajin high-priced transactions, but with the increase in exports of other manufacturers, the market supply is abundant, downstream high-priced supply capacity is limited, this week the market in the north gradually fell back. In the week, Ningbo coal and Jiutai coal prices were lowered, and some of Huajin’s supply streams were patted, downstream wait-and-see expectations, the market trading atmosphere was weak, combined with the downstream synthetic rubber market downturn, bringing drag on the butadiene market. Although the supply and demand fundamentals of East China market are not obviously skewed for the time being, due to the influence of the northern atmosphere, downstream inquiries are relatively cautious and the market remains weak. In terms of price, the delivery price of high-grade goods in Shandong is 8800 yuan/ton, which is down 400-500 yuan/ton annually; the delivery price of high-grade goods in East China is 8950-9000 yuan/ton, which is down 50-100 yuan/ton annually.

Industry chain: downstream synthetic rubber, styrene-butadiene rubber, this week, domestic styrene-butadiene rubber dry rubber factory price stability, styrene-butadiene rubber 1502 unit price 10000-10100 yuan/ton, oil-filled styrene-butadiene 1712 unit price 9050-9250 yuan/ton. Market price shocks, Qilu 1502E price near 10,000 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from last week; Qilu 1712 price at 9,200 yuan/ton, stable from last week. Cis-butadiene rubber, this cycle, domestic high cis-butadiene mainstream ex-factory prices stabilized in the range of 10,320-10,500 yuan/ton; market price range narrower than last cycle adjustment; by the end of submission, domestic cis-butadiene mainstream market prices adjusted to the range of 10,300-10,700 yuan/ton. SBS: Domestic SBS market oil glue low finishing, dry rubber road to small finishing.

3. Future Market Forecast

On the positive side, the external market is high, Sinopec’s internal supply is tight, and the downstream market just needs to remain. On the short side, the synthetic rubber market is weak, the start-up load is reduced, the spot supply in the northern market is increasing, and the high price is not good. Short-term North spot supply is relatively abundant, and high-price transactions are not good, coupled with the downturn of synthetic rubber market, the butadiene market has brought some drag. However, the tight supply performance in East China and Sinopec, together with the high market, has boosted the mentality of some domestic businessmen. With the reduction of the supply price of export manufacturers, it will stimulate the downstream just need to replenish warehouses, or to some extent, it will inhibit the downstream pace of the market. However, the downstream industrial chain and terminal demand drag down, the butadiene market is also difficult. There is an upward possibility. Business analysts predict that the spot price of butadiene in the domestic market will fall slightly next week. They suggest that attention should be paid to the price of the manufacturer and the transaction situation.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, urea factory prices in Shandong fell slightly this week. This week, the average price of urea mainstream producers dropped from 1926.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1916.67 yuan/ton at the end of the week. The price fell by 10.00 yuan/ton, or 0.52%, 1.49% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the urea market fell slightly this week, with the urea commodity index of 89.15 on July 19.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the main urea factory prices in Shandong fell slightly. Yangmei Plain urea quoted 1870 yuan/ton this week, the quotation is stable for the time being; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 1870 yuan/ton at the weekend, which is 30 yuan/ton lower than that at the beginning of the week; Mingshui Chemical Industry quoted 2010 yuan/ton this week, the quotation is stable for the time being. Recent environmental protection inspection atmosphere in China has eased, the overall industry start-up rate of domestic compound fertilizer enterprises has risen, and the plant load is still acceptable.

Market demand: Agricultural demand in Shandong has passed, although there is a phenomenon of fertilizer supplementation, but relatively few, along with the downstream demand decline, urea prices have slowly declined. It is expected that the urea market in Shandong Province will fall mainly in the short term.

Industry chain: Upstream natural gas prices rose slightly, liquid ammonia market fell slightly, urea cost support was strong, which had a negative impact on urea prices. The downstream compound fertilizer is generally started, which has a negative effect on urea.

3. Future Market Forecast

Low urea prices consolidated in late July. After the adjustment in June, the capital reflux of each factory is in good condition, the start-up rate has risen, and the production capacity has risen. Business society urea analysts believe that the current domestic urea market is affected by environmental protection and raw material costs. With the recovery of urea enterprise start-up rate, coupled with the current agricultural demand climax has passed, the downstream game atmosphere of the market is strong and start-up costs are gradually increasing, leading to the difficulty of maintaining urea market prices. It is expected that urea prices will be difficult to maintain in late July. Or low consolidation.

Commodity Index: On July 19, the polyaluminium chloride commodity index was 103.60, which was the same as yesterday. It was 4.17% lower than the peak of 108.11 points in the cycle (2019-04-24), and 2.68% higher than the low of 100.90 points on April 09, 2019. (Note: Period refers to 2019-04-01 to date)

Latest price (July 19): Polyaluminium chloride (solid, content (> 28%) quoted 1916.67 yuan/ton.

Main points of analysis: On July 1, the mainstream quotation of domestic polyaluminium chloride market was about 1950 yuan/ton, and on July 19, the market quotation of this product was 1916.67 yuan/ton, with a slight decrease of 1.71%. According to the monitoring data of the commercial association (100ppi.com), the current domestic market quotation range of polyaluminium chloride is: the lowest quotation range of polyaluminium chloride solid (industrial grade, content (> 28%) is reduced by 50 yuan/ton, now it is about 1750-1900 yuan/ton, and liquid (industrial grade, content 10-12%) is quoted by 330-410 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: Prices of upstream hydrochloric acid and other products of polyaluminium chloride have not changed much in recent years; downstream demand is basically stable, and the overall price of polyaluminium chloride has fluctuated slightly in recent years.

Future market forecast: In the short term, if there is no big fluctuation in the price of raw materials in the upstream, the demand in the downstream is relatively stable, and the market price of domestic polyaluminium chloride is basically stable.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, the average price of n-butanol as of July 12 was 6233.33 yuan/ton (including taxes), which was 1.91% higher than July 5. At present, the mainstream price of n-butanol in China is about 6200-6300 yuan/ton.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, the n-butanol market continues to rise steadily and steadily driven by cost. Some manufacturers are affected by losses. It is not excluded that the starting load will be reduced. In late July, some manufacturers have parking plans.

Industry chain: Mainstream price of propylene in upstream products has been continuously rising, refinery inventory is low, the situation of propylene supply and demand has not been significantly alleviated, and the overall market trading situation is relatively stable.

3. Future Market Forecast

Forecast: Mainstream price of n-butanol will remain stable in late July.