1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, as of March 5, the average price of n-butanol was 5466.67 yuan / ton (including tax). At present, the reference average price is basically the same as that at the end of February (February 29). On March 4, the n-butanol (industrial grade) commodity index was 44.57, unchanged from yesterday, down 55.43% from the cycle’s highest point of 100.00 (2011-10-08), and up 49.11% from the lowest point of 29.89 on November 30, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Products: since the end of February and the beginning of March, the domestic n-butanol market has been in stable operation for the time being, and the trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market is fair. The downstream users have started to gradually improve, bargain hunting and replenishment, and the factory inventory has been reduced. At present, the market volume in March is not significantly higher than that at the end of February. The new single negotiation is common, and the negotiation atmosphere is flat. The price of core users supplied by mainstream factories is slightly low, and the downstream raw material inventory is slowly digested. There is a lot of pressure on the market to offer at high prices. Up to March 5, the atmosphere of n-butanol market activity is general, supported by costs, and the market is mainly in stable operation. The quotation of n-butanol of Luxi Chemical Industry is stable temporarily, and the reference quotation is about 5500 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of Shandong lihuayi n-butanol is temporarily stable, with reference to 5300 yuan / ton; the ex factory quotation of Wanhua chemical n-butanol is 5500 yuan / ton in North China, 5700 yuan / ton in East China and 5850 yuan / ton in South China.

Industry chain: in March, the decline trend of Shandong propylene price in the early stage of the reform began. On the first day, some enterprises’ prices rose slightly. On the second day, the prices rose slightly. On the third day, most enterprises generally rose. On the fourth day, the prices also increased by about 50-100 yuan / ton. At present, the market turnover is between 6600-6700 yuan / ton, and the mainstream prices are around 6600 yuan / ton. At present, crude oil and polypropylene futures are rising and supply is tight, which makes the downstream procurement active. However, the production and inventory of propylene plant are low, and the market supply is short. It is expected that the price of propylene may rise.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of the data analyst of the business agency, the high price negotiation of the n-butanol market is limited at present, and it is expected that the low-end consolidation and operation of the market will be dominated in the short term.

According to statistics, the price of phthalic anhydride in China fell sharply in February. As of the end of the month, the price of phthalic anhydride from o-phthalic anhydride was 5700 yuan / ton, down 7.69% from 6175 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, down 18.18% year on year. In recent years, the price of phthalic anhydride in China has been falling continuously, the demand of plasticizer industry has not improved, and the market of phthalic anhydride market has been depressed.

In February, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride continued to decline. Affected by the epidemic situation, the transportation of chemicals was limited, and the inventory of some phthalic anhydride manufacturers started to increase, resulting in poor delivery. In East China, the market price of phthalic anhydride and phthalic anhydride has fallen, downstream factories have shut down a lot, factory inventory pressure has increased, and high-end transactions have been blocked. Recently, the factory inventory has increased, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride has declined. In East China, the main flow of negotiation for neighboring process and naphthalene process is 5500-5800 yuan / ton and 5300-5500 yuan / ton respectively; in North China, the main quotation for phthalic anhydride market is 5400-5800 yuan / ton. Most of the manufacturers in the site have price callback, the downstream construction is not high, the procurement is based on demand, and the wait-and-see mentality is strong. The domestic phthalic anhydride plant is under normal operation, and the spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the site is sufficient, in addition to phthalic anhydride The demand for phthalic anhydride is not good, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride is declining.

In the near future, the price of ox2 upstream product of phthalic anhydride fell in February. By the end of the month, the price of ortho benzene was 5800 yuan / ton, down 7.79% in February. The price of imported ortho benzene in port area fell. The price of external ortho benzene fell. The price of imported ortho benzene fell. The price of ortho benzene in port area was negative for the future market. The actual transaction price was subject to negotiation. It was discussed in detail and affected by the drop in the price of ortho benzene upstream raw material The market price of phthalic anhydride fell.

The downstream DOP market price fell slightly. The DOP price fell by about 1% in February. In addition, the price of raw materials isooctanol fell in shock. The cost of DOP raw materials fell. The DOP enterprises started work normally. The operating rate dropped. During the anti epidemic period, logistics was limited, transportation was difficult, and DOP manufacturers’ inventory was high. The price of DOP fell, the purchasing enthusiasm of customers was poor, the price of downstream PVC fluctuated and remained stable, the equipment of PVC enterprises started at a low level, and the mainstream price of DOP market was about 7100-7500 yuan / ton. In the future, the downward pressure of DOP is still there, the upward momentum is increased, the price trend in the downstream is slightly down, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is greatly affected.

On the whole, the market of plasticizer industry chain is in a downturn, and the prices of DOP products from the upstream raw material o-benzene to the downstream have declined to varying degrees. In addition, the recent crude oil prices continue to fall, and the downstream petrochemical products are under pressure. It is expected that the price of phthalic anhydride market will rise heavily in the later period, and the slight drop in prices may be small and large.

1、 Price trend

This week, the domestic liquefied gas (Shandong) market was stable first and then fell. On February 24, the average price of liquefied gas market was 4050 yuan / ton, and on February 28, the average price was 3700 yuan / ton, with a decline of 8.64% during the period. The price was 7.88% lower than that of the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Products: the liquefied gas market fell back after continuous upward trend. As of February 28, the price of liquefied gas from Sinopec Guangzhou Chemical Co., Ltd. was 4010 yuan / ton, that of Sinopec Jingmen Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was 4400 yuan / ton, that of Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was 3920 yuan / ton, that of Sinopec Qingdao Refining Chemical Co., Ltd. was 3800 yuan / ton, and that of Shandong Jinjin Co., Ltd The factory price of liquefied gas of Chenghua group is 3750 yuan / ton, and that of Sinopec Shijiazhuang refining and chemical company is 3550 yuan / ton. The price of Sinopec Luoyang Petrochemical LPG is 3850 yuan / ton.

In the early stage, the overall demand of liquefied gas market was good, and the price went up one after another, with a large increase. But this week, the market’s rise slowed down and prices recovered. International crude oil fell sharply this week due to the warming of the global epidemic. In the early stage, with the price rising to a high level, the downstream resistance mentality has increased. At present, the terminal resumption has not been fully recovered. With the completion of the downstream periodic replenishment, the stock has been withdrawn from the market and consumed. The market transaction atmosphere has been weakened compared with that in the early stage. The manufacturer’s shipment is not smooth, and the stock has increased gradually. From the 26th, the price has fallen.

Saudi Aramco issued CP in February, with propane of 505 US dollars / ton, down 60 US dollars / ton compared with the previous month; butane of 545 US dollars / ton, down 45 US dollars / ton compared with the previous month.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are two kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the eighth week of 2020 (2.24-2.28), among which the top two are methanol (0.50%) and coking coal (0.45%). There are 13 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 4 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are WTI crude oil (- 11.78%), Brent crude oil (- 11.57%), and liquefied gas (- 8.64%). This week’s average was – 3.14%.

3、 Future forecast

At present, the market supply is still running at a low level. Although the downstream resumption of work has increased, it has not been fully recovered. The downstream has withdrawn from the market and consumed inventory after periodic replenishment. The delivery atmosphere of the manufacturer is obviously weaker than that of the earlier stage, the inventory is gradually increasing, the firmness situation is not there, and the price is reasonable. It is expected that the demand will increase next week, and the downstream will start to replenish periodically, so that the price may stop falling and rise slightly.

1、 Price trend

On February 28, the NBR commodity index was 73.31, down 0.79 points from yesterday, 40.72% from 123.67 (2017-02-20), the highest point in the cycle, and 42.02% higher than 51.62, the lowest point on March 8, 2016 (Note: since 2012-09-01). According to the monitoring of the business association, the price of NBR was 16200 yuan / ton at the beginning of February and 15733 yuan / ton at the end of the month, which was 2.88% lower than that at the beginning of the month.

2、 Market trend analysis

First, the sharp drop in crude oil dragged down butadiene and acrylonitrile, the raw materials of nitrile. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of butadiene in China fell sharply, with the price at the beginning of February at 8056 yuan / ton and the price at the end of February at 6223 yuan / ton, down 22.75% overall. On the other hand, the factory price of Shanghai Secco in East China fell from 10400 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 8950 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 13.94% as a whole.

Secondly, affected by the “new crown” epidemic prevention and control, especially in the first and middle of February, on the one hand, domestic traffic control is relatively strict, and the circulation of production materials is not smooth. On the other hand, the domestic downstream enterprises’ resumption of production has been delayed, and the demand after the festival is less than that of the previous years. According to the business association, by the middle of February, the return rate of the downstream rubber hose and belt industry enterprises was only within 40% or even lower, and the area of return to work was gradually increased near the end of the month, and the return rate in East China was relatively high. Therefore, the overall turnover in February was light, which was negative for NBR.

Finally, in February, the overall operating rate of NBR industry in China was relatively low around 60-70%, and the supply side of NBR formed a certain support. According to the understanding of the business agency, the normal start-up of domestic Lanzhou Petrochemical, Zhenjiang Nandi and other nitrile units, the low load start-up of Jinpu, and the shutdown and maintenance of shunze nitrile in the first and middle of February. As of the end of February, n41e, 3305e and 3308e had reported 15000 yuan / ton, 15500 yuan / ton and 15600 yuan / ton respectively.

3、 Future prospects

Business analysts believe that at present, on the one hand, crude oil, butadiene, acrylonitrile prices are still low, especially the risk of crude oil decline is still in. On the other hand, domestic enterprises will gradually expand the resumption of work, and later demand will increase. In terms of upstream and downstream conditions, the trend of NBR in the later stage is unclear, and good domestic resumption of work will drive up the price, but if crude oil continues to fall sharply, it will drag the entire industrial chain.

1、 Price trend

According to the data in the business club’s bulk list, the domestic isomeric xylene market gradually stabilized this week, and as of Friday, it was flat compared with last Friday.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Product: affected by the stable rebound of international crude oil price and the rising price of isomeric xylene in Korean market, and the impact of the gradual improvement of market demand, the price of isomeric xylene in China has gradually stabilized. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 5400 yuan / ton.

2、 Industrial chain:

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, the international oil price continued to rebound this week. As of Friday, Brent rose 5.71%, Brent futures rose 4.42%, WTI futures rose 2.98%, and Dubai futures rose 3.01%.

Downstream, in PX market, the price of domestic market is about 6300 yuan / ton this week, and the latest price of external market is about 732 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea and 750 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that PX market price will maintain a stable trend next week. In terms of PTA market, the spot market price of PTA in China is about 4450 yuan / ton, and the external market price is about 571 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that PTA market will remain stable in the short term. In the ox market, Sinopec’s price of o-benzene was flat at 5800 yuan / ton, and the external price of o-benzene was about 745 US dollars / ton fob in South Korea, which is expected to maintain a stable trend in the future.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: next week, we will continue to focus on the trend of crude oil and the progress of downstream enterprises’ resumption. On the whole, it is expected that the price of isomeric xylene in the international crude oil market and South Korea market will be subject to shock correction, but under the expectation that the domestic enterprises will gradually enter the resumption period and the market demand will gradually improve, the price of isomeric xylene in the domestic market will be subject to slight shock next week.

1、 Price trend:

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of caustic soda in Shandong market at the beginning of the week was 600 yuan / ton, while the average price in Shandong market at the end of the week was 602.5 yuan / ton, up 0.42. The caustic soda commodity index on February 20 was 86.69, unchanged from yesterday, down 58.09% from 206.87 (2017-11-14), the highest point in the cycle, and up 18.32% from 73.27, the lowest point on March 29, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: the overall consolidation trend of caustic soda price this week is mainly. The price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda market in Shandong Province is stable, with a quotation of about 580-650 yuan / ton. The caustic soda enterprises have devices to stop, the market supply is reduced, and the trading atmosphere is flat. It is expected that the trend of narrow consolidation will run in the short term. The caustic soda market in Jiangsu Province is stable for the time being, with the main stream of 32% of the caustic soda market of 630-740 yuan / ton. The market is relatively stable with low load operation and weak trading. The start-up of caustic soda enterprises is still in the process of load reduction production, and the downstream demand side is general. The owners are more cautious and wait-and-see attitude.

Industrial chain: due to the impact of the epidemic situation in the downstream, the enterprises are not enough to start work, and the demand for caustic soda is limited. Logistics has not been fully recovered, and enterprises have difficulties in shipping. The overall demand for caustic soda is not much.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the sixth week of 2020 (2.10-2.14), there are 1 rising commodity, 1 falling commodity, and 3 rising and falling commodities. The main commodities rising were caustic soda (2.16%); the main commodities falling were PVC (- 1.10%). This week’s average was 0.21%.

According to analysts of business cooperatives, transportation has not yet recovered, and the delivery pressure of caustic soda enterprises is still on. At present, flexible delivery is the main mode of delivery, construction in other regions has not been significantly improved, and the overall operation of the domestic market is flat. It is expected that the consolidation and operation of domestic caustic soda market will be dominated.

1、 Price trend

This week, the lead market (2.10-2.14) continued to rise. The average price in the domestic market was 14012.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 14225 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a weekly increase of 1.52%.

On February 16, the lead commodity index was 86.57, unchanged from yesterday, down 35.40% from 134.01 (2016-11-29), the highest point in the cycle, and up 16.00% from 74.63, the lowest point on March 19, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Market trend analysis

Domestic market: this week, Lunzhou lead rose by 3.55%, while Shanghai lead fluctuated broadly between 13800-14400, with a weekly cumulative increase of more than 1.5%. The spot market continues to rise this week driven by futures prices. Affected by transportation and delayed resumption of work, there are only a limited number of manufacturers currently operating. The overall supply of goods in the spot market is relatively tight, with fewer quotations from traders. The main market supply is Shanghai Jinsha lead, Guangdong Nanhua lead, Hunan Jingui and a few other brands, with fewer transactions. The return to work of renewable lead enterprises was delayed this week. Except for the regular production of some large enterprises in the market, other enterprises are all off work.

3、 Future prospects

After the completion of next week’s delivery, because the overall supply is still increasing and the consumption is afraid that under the premise that the logistics cannot be fully opened, even if the resumption of work is gradually increasing everywhere, the activity of the spot will not be substantially improved, and the futures market performance of the basic metals will continue to fluctuate in the range, and under the signal that the epidemic has not obtained the inflection point, it is difficult for long-term trading to take a unilateral lead Restricted by logistics factors and slightly supported by prices, the company will focus on logistics and resumption of work next week. It is expected to fluctuate between 14000-14500 yuan / ton this week.

1、 Price trend

Since the beginning of January 2020, the price trend of n-propanol has been relatively stable, with a slight increase since the beginning of the year. According to the data of business agency, at the beginning of the year, the average price of n-propanol was 10600 yuan / ton, and the current average price of n-propanol was 10800 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.89%. At present, the domestic ex factory price is 10500-10800 yuan / ton in barrels (Zibo region), the market price of imported n-propanol is 10800-11600 yuan / ton in barrels (Taiwan), the low-end of bulk n-propanol, and the price difference is about 1000-1100 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

Product: at present, the market of n-propanol is affected by the current environment, logistics and other factors. The market operating rate is low, the transportation aspect fails to fully recover, the market is not available, and the transaction atmosphere is cold. The current inventory of n-propanol in Zibo, Shandong Province is low, and some enterprises are in short supply. At present, the ex factory quotation of n-propanol in fengcang Chemical Co., Ltd. in Shandong Province is 10500 yuan / ton in barrels (Shan East Zibo), it is difficult to transport n-propanol to the whole country due to the logistics restrictions in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, so it can only be sold in the surrounding areas.

Industry chain: the domestic market of upstream product propylene continued to be weak this week, the terminal demand recovered slowly, the operating rate of propylene and downstream units continued to decline, a small amount of downstream demand chose low procurement, and the overall market trading atmosphere was weak. As of February 13, the market price of propylene in Shandong has increased or decreased. During the Spring Festival, the international crude oil market continued to decline sharply, and the domestic propylene price also fell for many times. Since February, the price of propylene in Shandong Province has been declining all the way. On November 11, the price of some enterprises recovered slightly and then declined. Today, the price has fluctuated. At present, the market turnover is about 5750-6200 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 5900-6000 yuan / ton. There are many units in the upstream and downstream industries that have been shut down for maintenance, and the operating rate is still low; however, affected by the epidemic situation, some refineries ship at low price under the inventory pressure, and the market transaction is rare, the market is cold, and the wait-and-see is the main thing. It is expected that the market price of propylene will start to fluctuate in recent days.

Industry: n-propanol industry is in the downstream of chemical industry, mainly used as solvent, a small amount of which is also used to synthesize n-Propyl Acetate. N-propanol is also used as bactericide, pesticide and pharmaceutical raw materials, perfume raw materials, erythromycin, bromopropane, nipagin propyl ester, paint, ink, n-Propyl Acetate, etc. of fuel oil, with a wide range of uses. The price of n-propanol is not easy to monitor, and the dealers still have reservations about the price, which may lead to differences in the specific negotiations, and there are differences in each region.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysts of zhengpropanol of the business agency: due to the actual effect of the recovery of logistics and transportation in many places, it is expected that the market situation of zhengpropanol will not change much next week. With the improvement of logistics and the overall environment, the market trading atmosphere will also pick up. How to continue the market trend still needs to wait and see the change of raw material price and the delivery of zhengpropanol.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business association, as of January 19, the average price of domestic premium DMF enterprises was 4866.67 yuan / ton, and the manufacturer’s price range was 4500-5000 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

Products: DMF plant has stable operation, inventory has entered the accumulation stage, market trading atmosphere is quiet, holiday atmosphere is strong.

Industrial chain: the market of upstream raw materials methanol and synthetic ammonia is stable, and the cost support is strong. The market demand in East China and South China is light, and the industry’s attention to the post festival market is temporarily weak

Industry: on January 18, the chemical industry index was 734, the same as yesterday, down 27.76% from 1016 (2012-03-13), the highest point in the cycle, and up 22.33% from 600, the lowest point on January 31, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

4、 Future forecast

DMF analysts believe that in the short term, DMF is mainly weak and stable, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see,

1、 Price data

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of gasoline and diesel is basically stable this week. The price of domestic gasoline is 6506 yuan / ton, 0.43% lower than that of last week; the price of domestic diesel is 6160 yuan / ton, 1.02% lower than that of last week.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: international crude oil fell slightly this week. At present, the price adjustment of domestic refined oil on February 1 is expected to decrease by 160 yuan / ton. However, with the support of Spring Festival holiday demand, the market price of refined oil is basically stable.

Industry chain: EIA’s monthly report shows that the risk of major threat to oil supply seems to have subsided, and the oil production of non OPEC member countries is growing strongly, and the crude oil production of OPEC 1 is 700000 barrels / day higher than expected. The bad news of international crude oil market is constantly coming out. This week, the overall international oil price fell in shock, WTI crude oil price fell 0.47% in the week.

Market: last week, due to the sharp rise in crude oil, the price of gasoline and diesel rose to a staged high. In this week, with the international oil price falling, the wait-and-see mood of downstream operators continued to be strong, and the overall performance of market transactions was average. However, due to the approaching of the Spring Festival holiday, the demand support of the refined oil market and the opening of replenishment operations by upstream and downstream operators, the market turnover has improved significantly. This week, the domestic refined oil market is mainly stable.

3、 Future forecast

Lu Xingjun, an oil product analyst with business club, believes that although the price drop in the international crude oil market is lower than before, the market performance is relatively weak. The oil product market is supported by the market demand during the Spring Festival holiday. It is expected that the market price of refined oil will be stable next week.