1、 Price trend

According to the data in the business club’s bulk list, the domestic isomeric xylene market continued to adjust this week, down 1.13% as of Friday.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Product: compared with last week, affected by the easing of us Iraq relations and the approaching factors of the long holiday, the market continued to adjust and slightly fell back. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 5750 yuan / ton. Feedback from traders, month on month last week, this week’s transaction was average, port inventory stable.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, affected by the favorable signing of the first phase of economic and trade agreement between China and the United States, the overall oil price this week showed a volatile rebound trend. As of Friday, Brent rose 1.45%, Brent futures rose 1.48%, WTI futures rose 1.19%, and Dubai futures rose 0.19%.

Downstream, in PX market, the domestic market price is stable this week, at present, it is about 6900 yuan / ton, and the external market is down. The latest price is about 792 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea and 812 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the PX market price will maintain 6900 yuan / ton next week. In terms of PTA market, the price of external market is about 610 US dollars / ton, while the price of domestic PTA spot market continues to be slightly revised back, and it is expected that PTA market will remain volatile in the short term. In the ox market, Sinopec’s price of o-benzene was flat at 6300 yuan / ton, and the price of o-benzene was about US $870 / ton, which is expected to maintain a stable trend in the future.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: next week, we will continue to focus on market turnover, port inventory and crude oil trend. On the whole, toluene market is expected to continue a stable and volatile trend next Tuesday due to the approaching Spring Festival holiday.

1、 Price trend of lithium hydroxide:

(Figure: P value curve of lithium hydroxide product source: Commodity analysis system of Business Association)

2、 Market analysis:

On January 14, the market of lithium hydroxide mainly maintained stable operation, and the quotation of some enterprises was slightly reduced. On the 14th, the average price of domestic industrial lithium hydroxide enterprises was 57000 yuan / ton, down 1.16% compared with that on the 13th. In a half year cycle, it fell 31.60% year on year. On January 14, the lithium hydroxide commodity index was 135.71, down 1.59 points compared with that on January 13, down 64.43% compared with the highest point 381.48 (2016-09-12), and up 35.71% compared with the lowest point 100.00 on September 4, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2014-09-01 to now) on January 14, the external quotation of industrial grade lithium hydroxide of Shanghai Yulun Industrial Co., Ltd. was 58000 yuan / ton, that of Shanghai Eugene Industrial Co., Ltd. was 58000 yuan / ton, and that of Zigong tongfarong industrial grade lithium hydroxide was 55000 yuan / ton. The specific transaction price will be discussed in a single way. At present, the mainstream price of industrial lithium hydroxide Market in China is around 55000-58000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China on January 14 was 43200 yuan / ton, and the average price of battery lithium carbonate in East China was 50600 yuan / ton. During the Spring Festival, lithium carbonate production enterprises began to enter the stage of shutdown and maintenance gradually, and the inventory level may be eased, but the price decline will slow down due to the decrease of demand. It is predicted that the price of lithium carbonate will hardly improve by this year.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 9 kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices on January 14, 2020, among which the top three commodities are acetone (4.08%), R22 (1.87%) and polyformaldehyde (1.86%). There are 14 kinds of commodities with a decline in the month on month, and the top three products are propane (- 2.50%), ammonium chloride (- 1.56%) and mixed xylene (- 1.22%). The 14 day average rose or fell by 0.01%.

3、 Future forecast:

According to analysts of lithium hydroxide of business club, it is expected that in the short term, the domestic market of lithium hydroxide will be dominated by weak market stable operation.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the large scale list of business agencies, the market price of propylene (Shandong) in China rose continuously in the first ten days of January. At the beginning of ten days (January 1), the average price of enterprises is ten day low price, 6698 yuan / ton; at the end of ten days (January 10), the average price of enterprises is ten day high price, 7079 yuan / ton, and the ten day increase has reached 5.68%.

2、 Analysis and comment

Product: affected by international crude oil, domestic propylene price rebounded from the bottom at the end of December, rising continuously. It was stable on January 5 and 6, rising on January 7 and 8, and maintaining stability on January 9. Today, it continues to increase by about 100 yuan / ton. At present, the market transaction has risen to about 7050-7300 yuan / ton, and the main flow price is about 7050 yuan / ton. In the near future, some domestic dehydrogenation units will be shut down or the load will be reduced. A dehydrogenation unit in South Korea is planned to be shut down for maintenance, which makes propylene supply tight.

Industry chain: in the upstream, the situation in the Middle East is tense, the international crude oil price is unstable, and the fluctuation range is obvious, which has a certain impact on propylene market.

Recently, PP declined slightly, with a 10 day drop of 1.70%, and the profit margin declined, which had a certain negative impact on propylene.

In the near future, acrylic acid slightly increased, with a ten day increase of 0.41%. In the later period, the market may be stable and positive, with some positive impact on propylene.

In recent days, the price of propylene oxide rose slightly and remained stable after falling 4.61%, with a 10 day drop of 2.80%. In the short term, the finishing operation may be blocked, with limited impact on propylene.

In the first ten days, the price of epichlorohydrin fluctuated, with an increase of 0.47% in ten days and an amplitude of 3.29% in ten days. In the future, it may still be dominated by weak finishing operation, with limited impact on propylene.

In recent days, the domestic n-butanol rose rapidly after falling, with a ten day increase of 1.71% and a ten day amplitude of 2.89%. It is expected that there will still be shocks in the future, which is good for propylene.

The price of octanol declined slightly, 0.96% in ten days, which was negative for propylene.

The phenol Market in Shandong Province rose slightly in the first ten days of January, up 2.93% in ten days, which had a positive impact on propylene.

The acetone market in Shandong Province decreased significantly in the first ten days of January, with a drop of 5.44% in ten days. It is expected that the market will be stable in the short term, which will have a certain negative impact on propylene.

Isopropanol market prices rose all the way in the near future, up 4.81% in ten days. It is still possible to rise in the future, which has a certain positive impact on propylene market.

3、 Future forecast

According to the propylene analyst of the chemical branch of business society, the propylene market has been rising continuously in recent days. The incident in the Middle East has shaken the international crude oil price. The shutdown of domestic and foreign dehydrogenation units has led to the shortage of propylene supply. Although the downstream operating rate has declined and the profit has decreased, the market price of propylene may still rise in recent days.

1、 Price trend of epichlorohydrin:

Epichlorohydrin market weakened this week, according to the data in the business club’s large list. As of the 10th, the average price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 14233.33 yuan / ton, down 0.47% compared with the beginning of the week, and up 33.65% compared with the same period last year. On January 10, the epichlorohydrin commodity index was 100.52, flat with that on January 9, 24.82% lower than the highest point 133.71 (2019-10-29) in the cycle, and 114.56% higher than the lowest point 46.85 on September 7, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis:

Product: epichlorohydrin market weakened this week. On June 6, the main quotation of epichlorohydrin market was 14000-14400 yuan / ton, and there was no inventory pressure on the spot. The manufacturer kept a firm price mentality, but the downstream factory had a relatively abundant stock of raw materials, and the intention to purchase high-priced raw materials was not high. The high-end shipment of the carrier was blocked, and the majority of profits were offered. On October 10, the main quotation of epichlorohydrin market in China was lowered to around 13500-14200 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: this week (1.6-1.10) the market in the upstream propylene Shandong region rose, or 2.53%. At present, the market transaction has risen to about 7050-7300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 7050 yuan / ton. The Middle East event has shaken the international crude oil price. The shutdown of domestic and foreign dehydrogenation units has led to the shortage of propylene supply. Although the downstream operating rate has declined and the profit has decreased, the propylene market price may still rise in recent days. On the 10th, the downstream epoxy resin was in high-level finishing operation, and the factory made firm offer.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the first week of 2020 (1.6-1.10), there are 27 kinds of commodities rising month by month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which there are 3 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 3.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are bisphenol A (9.65%), glycol (7.92%), ammonium chloride (5.09%). There are 18 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and 1 kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are caustic soda (- 5.22%), chloroform (- 4.55%), sodium metabisulfite (- 3.79%). This week’s average was 0.35%.

3、 Future forecast:

Epichlorohydrin analysts believe that in the near future, the price of raw propylene has been rising continuously, with strong cost support. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, the enthusiasm for purchasing epoxy resin in the downstream is weakened, and the action force of epichlorohydrin is insufficient. It is expected that epichlorohydrin market will be dominated by weak consolidation operation in the short term.

According to statistics, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid in China this week is temporarily stable. As of the end of the week, the price is 10240 yuan / ton, which is the same as the price at the beginning of the week, down 19.84% year on year.

Products: the price trend of hydrofluoric acid this week is temporarily stable. In the near future, the on-site manufacturers’ goods are generally sold. The operating rate of the downstream refrigerant industry remains at a low level. The demand for the domestic hydrofluoric acid market is limited. In addition, the domestic hydrofluoric acid plant maintains a high operating rate, and the domestic spot supply is sufficient. However, the price of fluorite remains high in the near future, and the domestic price trend is temporarily stable. By the end of the weekend, southern China The mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation is 10000-11000 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 10000-10500 yuan / ton. In the near future, the price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is stable. In the near future, the demand of downstream refrigerant industry is general, and the supply of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers is general. Some manufacturers report that the recent rise pressure is large. By the end of the week, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in Fujian Province was about 10000-10500 yuan / ton, in Shandong Province, Jiangxi Province, Inner Mongolia and Jiangxi Province, respectively. The market price trend of hydrofluoric acid was stable.

Industry chain: the price of fluorite in the upstream of hydrofluoric acid is stable this week. By the end of the week, the ex factory price of fluorite is 2894.44 yuan / ton. The supply of fluorite in China is normal, but the price of fluorite has little change. The upstream cost price has a certain cost support impact on the hydrofluoric acid market. With the decrease of gas temperature, the supply of fluorite in the north will gradually decline. At that time, the price of fluorite will remain high, and the price of hydrofluoric acid will be stable The market has certain cost support. In the near future, the trading trend of the downstream refrigerant market of the terminal is stable, mainly because the quota of enterprises at the end of the year is limited, the supply is tight, and the market is out of stock, most manufacturers do not accept new orders basically, and the orders before the main supply, the price is high and stable. The transaction price of bulk water market of traders is chaotic, and the supply of goods in their hands is tight. The terminal’s demand for refrigerant R22 has not been improved, and the main price of domestic large enterprises is 15500-18500 yuan / ton. The price trend of domestic R134a market remains high, and the unit operating rate of production enterprises remains low. At present, the automobile industry has entered the stock cycle, and the demand for R134a has slightly improved. At present, the supply of R134a in the market is slightly tight, and the price trend remains high. The downstream is still on-demand procurement, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is temporarily stable.

Industry: this week, the upstream raw materials fluorite and hydrofluoric acid market spot supply is normal, coupled with the general trading market of the downstream refrigerant industry, hydrofluoric acid market price trend is stable.

In recent years, the operating rate of domestic refrigerants has not changed much. The market demand for hydrofluoric acid is purchased on demand, and the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is normal in the field. However, the market supply of raw materials is normal in the near future, and the price of fluorite is supported to some extent. Chen Ling, an hydrofluoric acid analyst of the business agency, thinks that the market price of hydrofluoric acid will be stable next week.

On January 3, Sulaimani, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard “Holy City Brigade” in Iran, was killed in an air raid at Baghdad airport in Iraq. The US side confirmed that the attack was launched. Affected by the incident, crude oil rose sharply. WTI crude oil futures market price in the US rose to 63.05 US dollars / barrel, or 1.87 US dollars. Brent crude oil futures price rose to 68.60 US dollars / barrel, or 68.60 US dollars / barrel $2.35.

At present, the incident continues to ferment, and the situation in the Middle East is becoming increasingly tense. Khamenei, Iran’s top leader, later said that “severe retaliation” is waiting to kill the murderer of major general Sulaimani of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard “. Then the U.S. State Department issued an emergency security warning, asking the American citizens in Iraq to evacuate immediately, and at the same time, suspending the consular service of the embassy. The situation in the U.S. and Iran has further deteriorated 。 Then, on January 5, it was reported that the U.S. ambassador to Iraq and his military base were simultaneously attacked by rockets, which was regarded as the “first shot” by Iran.

After being retaliated by Iran, the highest level of the United States issued a military warning publicly, and defined the scope of the military action against Iran. On January 5, trump publicly said that if Iran launched retaliation, threatening the security of the United States, the United States hit the 52 targets of Iran precisely. At present, things are out of control, which is also the largest black swan flying out of the world at the beginning of 2020.

How should oil prices go in the later period?

According to the business association, the situation in the Middle East is difficult to calm down in the short term. The United States has made a plan to increase its troops in the Middle East, and the incident has also evolved in the long term. At present, the risk of crude oil supply in the Middle East is triggered again, especially Iran and Iraq. It is reported that Iran and Iraq are the main producers of OPEC crude oil and fuel oil, and fuel oil exports rank first (mainly to the Asia Pacific). In November 2019, OPEC The crude oil output of the two countries accounts for 22.82% of OPEC’s total output, which is 29.7 million barrels / day, including 4.71 million barrels / day in Iraq and 2.07 million barrels / day in Iran. According to the data, this proportion is very large. If the Middle East is in a state of war, the oil production and refining facilities of the two countries will be affected. At that time, the production of crude oil and fuel oil will be significantly reduced, which will also lead to the risk of crude oil supply and chain reaction, including OPEC + production reduction agreement. It is expected that crude oil will remain long in the near future As a result, there is a great possibility for oil prices to reach a new high.

Price trend of epichlorohydrin:

According to the data in the business club’s large list, the average price of domestic epichlorohydrin enterprises on January 1, 2019 was 10650 yuan / ton, and as of December 25, the average price of domestic epichlorohydrin enterprises was 13900 yuan / ton, up 30.52% in the year. The lowest price in the year is 10150 yuan / ton on January 7, and the highest price in the year is 18933.33 yuan / ton on October 28, with a maximum amplitude of 86.54%.

Market analysis:

According to the monitoring data of the business association, the market price of epichlorohydrin in 2017 was 8233.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year, and 17366.67 yuan / ton at the end of the year, up 109.66% in the year. The unreasonable industrial structure, strict environmental supervision, high prices of some raw materials and other reasons led to a serious shortage of goods after August, and the market of epichlorohydrin soared all the way. In 2017, the capacity of epichlorohydrin in China was about 1.14 million tons.

According to the monitoring data of the business association, the average price of enterprises at the beginning of 2018 was 17366.67 yuan / ton, and the average price of enterprises at the end of 2018 was 10650 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 38.68% in the year. On the supply side, in 2018, the capacity of China’s propylene oxide industry reached more than 1.35 million tons, and the change of operating rate affected the price trend. On the demand side, influenced by environmental protection supervision and other factors in 2018, the overall operating rate of China’s epoxy resin industry is 40.5%, and some enterprises are limited in production or parking, which is difficult to drive the demand for epichlorohydrin to strengthen. In 2018, epichlorohydrin market supply and demand game, the overall shock fell.

In 2019, the market of epichlorohydrin went through ups and downs, experienced two big ups and downs, and showed an upward trend of shocks as a whole. According to the monitoring data of the business association, the market price of epichlorohydrin in 2019 has two significant increases, the first one from April 29 (10800 yuan / ton) to July 22 (17666.67 yuan / ton) up 63.58%. For the second time, from September 4 (12166.67 yuan / ton) to October 28 (18933.33 yuan / ton), the increase was 55.62%. The main reasons for the rise of epichlorohydrin: the four production lines of Shandong Haili, a leading domestic enterprise, totaled 320000 tons / year of epichlorohydrin plant, which had been shut down for maintenance since the end of October 2018, has not been restarted up to now, and the subsequent impact of “3.21″ major explosion accident, the operating rate of epichlorohydrin industry has always been low. The supply side of the market has shrunk, the spot supply has continued to be tight, the manufacturers have no pressure to ship, and the rising sentiment of the selling market is unprecedented, so it is difficult to find the source of low-cost goods. The market price of epichlorohydrin has also seen two significant declines, the first one from July 22 (17666.67 yuan / ton) to August 20 (12466.67 yuan / ton) with a decline of 29.43%. For the second time, from October 28 (18933.33 yuan / ton) to December 10 (11833.33 yuan / ton), the decline was 37.50%. The main reason for the decline of epichlorohydrin was that the supply of epichlorohydrin was relatively tight, but the downstream was at the low level of the operating rate, thus reducing the purchase of raw epichlorohydrin. The downstream gas was few and the epichlorohydrin plant had low price shipping intention based on the profitability In addition, due to the expected restart of some units and the release of new capacity in the later stage, downstream operators are more cautious in participating in this stage, and the market of epichlorohydrin is weak.

In the first quarter of 2019, the market of epichlorohydrin rebounded after a slow rise and a sharp fall, with an overall upward trend. According to the monitoring data of the business association, the market price of epichlorohydrin increased from 10650 yuan / ton on January 1 to 11833.33 yuan / ton on March 31, with the quotation increased by 1183.33 yuan / ton, or 11.11%.

In the second quarter of 2019, the market of epichlorohydrin rose sharply after a volatile decline. According to the monitoring data of the business association, the market price of epichlorohydrin dropped from 11833.33 yuan / ton on April 1, to 10800 yuan / ton on April 29 in shock, and finally to 14600 yuan / ton on June 30. In the second quarter, the overall price rose 2766.67 yuan / ton, or 23.38%.

The market of epichlorohydrin fluctuated in the third quarter of 2019. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the market price of epichlorohydrin increased from 14600 yuan / ton on July 1 to 15000 yuan / ton on September 30, with the quotation increased by 400 yuan / ton, or 2.74%. The highest price in July was 17666.67 yuan / ton, and the lowest price in September was 12166.67 yuan / ton.

In the fourth quarter of 2019, the market of epichlorohydrin rose sharply and fell sharply. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the market price of epichlorohydrin fell from 15000 yuan / ton on October 1 to 13900 yuan / ton on December 25, with the quotation down 1100 yuan / ton, or 7.33%. The highest price in October is 18933.33 yuan / ton, and the lowest price in December is 11833.33 yuan / ton.

According to the statistics of the customs, from January to November 2019, the cumulative import volume of epichlorohydrin in China is 16492.074 tons, and the cumulative export volume is 7993.555 tons.

Future forecast:

In conclusion, the rise and fall of raw material prices in 2019 has limited impact on epichlorohydrin, and the supply and demand side is the key to the rise and fall of epichlorohydrin prices. At present, epichlorohydrin is still in a tight spot supply state, and it is hard to find a low-cost source of goods. It is expected that the market of epichlorohydrin will go higher in the short term. In 2020, we still need to pay attention to the upstream and downstream information guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the propylene market steadied after a sharp fall in December, fell again in the second half of the month and recovered at the end of the month. At the beginning of the month, the average price of the enterprise is the monthly high price, at 7095 yuan / ton; at the end of the month, the average price of the enterprise is 6654 yuan / ton, with a monthly drop of 6.22%; the monthly low price appears on December 28, which is also the annual low price, at 6510 yuan / ton, with a monthly amplitude of 8.25%.

2、 Analysis and comment

Products: at the beginning of December, influenced by the international crude oil market “Black Friday”, the price began to decline, which has fallen by about 400 yuan / ton. After that, the price remained stable and fluctuated in a narrow range. At the end of the month, the price of the enterprise began to decline again from December 25, which fell by about 200 yuan / ton in two days. The price began to rise at the end of the week. Today, the price of the enterprise rose by 50-100 yuan / ton. At present, the market turnover is 6600-71 About 00 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6600 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: in the upstream, the news of OPEC’s production reduction policy extension affected the international crude oil market high consolidation, but the increase was small, which had a certain pulling effect on propylene. In the downstream, the start-up of downstream manufacturers gradually recovered, the delivery situation improved, the profit margin was fair, and it also had a certain positive impact on propylene.

PP spot fell in December, with a monthly decline of 6.56%. The fundamentals were long and short. From the results, the market was weak and had limited impact on propylene.

In December, partial supply of acrylic acid was tight, and the manufacturer’s intention to hold up the price was obvious, with a monthly increase of 3.39%. It is expected that short-term acrylic acid market will be dominated by high firm operation, which will have a certain positive impact on propylene.

Propylene oxide fluctuated broadly in December, with a monthly decline of only 0.98% and a monthly amplitude of 5.96%. It may still decline in the future, which has a certain negative impact on propylene.

In December, epichlorohydrin began to rise in the middle of the month after a slight downward trend. At the end of the month, it was stable at a high level, with a monthly increase of 10.39% and a monthly amplitude of 19.72%, which played a certain role in raising the price of propylene.

N-butanol fell in December, with a monthly decline of 7.16%. At the end of the month, there was a significant downward trend, which may have some negative impact on propylene.

Octanol almost maintained stability in December, with a monthly decline of 0.48%, which had little impact on propylene.

In December, the phenol Market in Shandong Province remained stable, with a monthly decline of 0.51% and an amplitude of 1.04%, which had limited impact on propylene market.

In December, Shandong acetone market fell sharply in the middle of the month, with a monthly decline of 7.55%, which had a certain negative impact on propylene.

In December, the isopropanol market also declined due to the influence of upstream acetone market, but rebounded at the end of the month, with a monthly decline of 10.96% and a monthly amplitude of 13.70%, which also slightly negative for propylene.

3、 Future forecast

According to the propylene analyst of business and chemical branch, in December, the propylene market fell twice, with a total decline of nearly 10%. At the end of the month, it recovered slightly from the annual low price. The upstream crude oil market is in high consolidation; the downstream operating rate is good and the profit margin is fair, so it is expected that the propylene price in Shandong will still rise in the short term.

At the beginning of the week, on the 30th, according to the monitoring of the business association, the domestic liquid ammonia market was stable, the enterprises suspended the pace of downward adjustment, and the northern region was stable. On the 30th, the rise and fall of liquid ammonia was 0. At the beginning of the week, most manufacturers’ quotations were flat at the end of last week. Some enterprises in Shandong, the main production area, experienced a continuous decline on the last Wednesday. This week, the prices in the northwest region remained stable. At present, there is abundant performance of partial ammonia, especially some factories in Shandong The supply of goods is relatively loose, and the pressure of enterprises’ shipment is increasing. However, the manufacturers with large ammonia quantity are mainly stable in price, and they are going to sell goods one after another. The main quotation in Shandong is 2850-2950 yuan / ton.

In North China, the liquid ammonia is also stable, and the lack of demand leads to the slow delivery of liquid ammonia. After urea conversion, the ammonia quantity is controlled. The inventory pressure of the enterprise is slightly relieved. At present, there are many downriver stoppages, and the main quotation in North China is 2800 yuan / ton.

The pressure of environmental protection in Hebei is still not negligible, which leads to the majority of enterprises limiting production. The shutdown of large downstream enterprises, such as China and Afghanistan, leads to weak demand in the downstream, many enterprises accumulating in the warehouse, and no significant change in price. The mainstream quotation in Hebei is 2800-2850 yuan / ton.

At the beginning of the week, the market in Central China also stabilized. The delivery pressure in Hubei was slightly eased compared with that in the previous week. Due to the impact of environmental protection pressure, the price in Henan was more profitable. At present, the liquid ammonia market is full of negative atmosphere and weak operation. The mainstream quotation in Henan is 2700 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of the future market, the business community believes that the current market has maintained a narrow range of adjustment, with enterprises mainly selling products at guaranteed prices, some of which have given way to profits, most of the devices have been converted to urea production, and the output of liquid ammonia has been controlled to decline, so as to balance the overstock of manufacturers’ inventory. It is expected that the market will continue to maintain a weak position in the short term, mainly affected by the high ammonia volume in most regions, and the possibility of continuing to explore low is not ruled out.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business association, the anhydrous hydrofluoric acid Market in 2019 shows a “W” trend. In 2019, the price of hydrofluoric acid dropped significantly. The price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid at the beginning of the year was 13625 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the year was 10240 yuan / ton, with a 24.84% drop. According to the price trend chart, the lowest price of the year appeared on November 19, with an average market price of 9600 yuan / ton, and the highest price of the year appeared At the beginning of the year, the average market price is 13625 yuan / ton, and the maximum amplitude of hydrofluoric acid Market in 2019 is 41.93%.

2、 Market analysis

The price trend of hydrofluoric acid products in 2019 can be roughly divided into four stages: the first stage is from January to early April, during which the market price of hydrofluoric acid falls sharply; the second stage is from mid April to mid July, during which the market price of hydrofluoric acid rebounds and rises; the third stage is from late July to mid November, during which the market price of hydrofluoric acid fluctuates and falls; the fourth stage is from the end of November to the end of November, during which the market price of hydrofluoric acid falls sharply The specific market trend is as follows:

In the first stage, from January to the first ten days of April, the market price of hydrofluoric acid dropped sharply. The domestic price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid dropped from 13625 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 10100 yuan / ton in the first ten days of April, a drop of 25.87%. The price of hydrofluoric acid dropped sharply. First, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market maintenance device was restarted, and the on-site hydrofluoric acid spot supply increased. The enterprise reported that the on-site hydrofluoric acid spot supply was sufficient at present, the factory’s ex factory market was not good, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid fell. Second, the negative impact of upstream raw material fluorite products, fluorite plant construction has increased, and the operating rate of fluorite plant in Inner Mongolia and Hebei provinces has increased. As a whole, the supply of fluorite has increased, the price of fluorite has dropped significantly, the sharp decline of upstream fluorite price has a greater negative impact on hydrofluoric acid, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid has dropped significantly. The third is the cold trading market in the downstream refrigerant market of the terminal. The R22 refrigerant unit starts at 70%, and the unit starts at a low rate in the R22 market. The factory offer price of bulk water of the main production enterprise is between 16000-18500 yuan / ton, but the production enterprise does not have bulk water in stock, and most of them are small quantities of steel cylinders. In addition, the actual market demand is low, and the trend of shipping market is poor. The market price of R134a in China is slightly lower, the unit operating rate of production enterprises has not changed much, the market demand for refrigerants is weakened, and manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the transaction price in the site has not changed much, and the merchants purchase on demand. In the near future, due to the impact of equipment maintenance, the market demand for upstream hydrofluoric acid has weakened, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid continues to decline.

In the second stage, from mid April to mid July, the market price of hydrofluoric acid rebounded and rose from 10100 yuan / ton in mid April to 12080 yuan / ton on July 20, an increase of 19.6%. There are two main reasons for the price rise of hydrofluoric acid in this period. One is that the unit operating rate of domestic refrigerant industry has increased slightly. For the upstream raw material hydrofluoric acid market demand has increased, the domestic R134a market price has increased slightly, the unit operating rate of production enterprises has not changed much, the refrigerant market demand has increased, the downstream market has improved, and the hydrofluoric acid market price has rebounded and increased. Secondly, the fluorite installation has been started normally in the near future. Generally speaking, the supply of fluorite is a little tight. However, the fluorite market is greatly affected by environmental protection, and the supply of fluorite in the site is a little tight. The price of fluorite of some manufacturers is rising, and the market price of fluorite is rising, which brings strong cost support for the price of downstream hydrofluoric acid market, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid is rising.

In the third stage, from late July to mid November, the market price of hydrofluoric acid fluctuated and fell, from 12080 yuan / ton in late July to 9600 yuan / ton in late November, a drop of 20.53%. In the near future, the operation rate of hydrofluoric acid in China is more than 60%. Enterprises report that there is sufficient stock supply of hydrofluoric acid in the site at present, and the situation of goods distribution in the site in the near future is poor. In the near future, due to the poor downstream demand, the prices of some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers continue to decline. In the near future, the start-up of downstream refrigerant product units is at a low level, and the demand for upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid is poor. In the near future, the trading market of downstream refrigerants is general, and the price of hydrofluoric acid products fluctuates. In the near future, the transaction market of downstream refrigerants of the terminal is generally, the operation rate of R22 refrigerants is 50%, and the operation rate of R22 market devices is temporarily stable. The factory offer price of bulk water of the main production enterprises is 12000-14000 yuan / ton, but the production enterprises do not have bulk water in stock, most of which are small quantities of steel cylinders. In addition, the actual demand side of the market changes little, and the shipping market is general. The price trend of R134a market in China is not good, the unit operating rate of production enterprises remains low, the market demand for refrigerants is general, and the manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the market price of hydrofluoric acid keeps declining due to the normal supply of goods and poor downstream demand. Recently, affected by the common negative effects of fluorite and refrigerant industry, the market price of hydrofluoric acid dropped as much as 20% in four months.

In the fourth stage, from the end of November to the end of the year, the market price of hydrofluoric acid will rise slightly. In the near future, the price of fluorite upstream of hydrofluoric acid will remain high. The factory price of domestic fluorite is 2861.11 yuan / ton. The domestic fluorite unit will be started normally. The mine and flotation unit in the field will be started normally. The supply of fluorite in the field will be normal. In the near future, the price of hydrofluoric acid downstream will remain low. For the fluorite market, fluorite will be purchased on demand The market price of fluorite is stable for the time being. In the near future, the downstream units are under normal operation, the spot supply of fluorite in the site is sufficient, and the downstream demand of the terminal is general, which leads to the temporary stability of the market price trend. The high price of fluorite brings certain cost support to the hydrofluoric acid market, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is stable. However, in the near future, fluorite supply has decreased, fluorite prices remain high, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid has been affected. In the near future, the transaction market of the downstream refrigerant market of the terminal has increased slightly. At present, the automobile industry has entered the cycle of goods preparation. The supply of R22 in China is tight. The market price of R22 in China has increased. The starting load of the manufacturer’s production unit is still not high. The supply capacity of the market source has declined. The downstream air conditioning manufacturer has maintained the demand, but the supply is tight. The price of domestic large enterprises is mainly Flow rose to 13500-14500 yuan / ton. The price trend of domestic R134a market slightly increased, and the unit operating rate of production enterprises remained at a low level. At present, the automobile industry has entered the stock cycle, and the demand for R134a has slightly improved. At present, the supply of R134a in the market is slightly tight, the price has slightly increased, the downstream market has improved, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid has rebounded higher.

The price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid industry chain in 2019 is as follows:

In 2019, the market of fluorine chemical industry is weak. From raw material fluorite to hydrofluoric acid, the downstream refrigerant industry has different procedures of decline. The fluorine chemical industry is in recession, the terminal demand has not improved significantly, and the market trend is declining.

3、 Future forecast

Chen Ling, a hydrofluoric acid analyst with business agency, believes that in the short term, the hydrofluoric acid plant will start normally, the supply of goods in the hydrofluoric acid market will be normal, and the market will be generally on the market. In addition, there are many units in the downstream refrigerant industry to be overhauled, so the demand for hydrofluoric acid is limited. However, the firm’s intention to hold up the price is obvious, and the price may maintain a slight upward trend at the beginning of 2020. In the long run, with the advent of the refrigerant industry peak season, the domestic refrigerant industry manufacturers will prepare goods and gradually start the maintenance of the refrigerant device. At that time, the market price of hydrofluoric acid may rise, and the price may remain at about 13000 yuan / ton. With the end of the sales peak season in the refrigeration industry, it is expected that the upward pressure of hydrofluoric acid market will increase in the second and third quarters, or the price will gradually fall, and the price is expected to gradually fall to the level of 9500 yuan / ton. In the fourth quarter, the price may rise, and the price is expected to be 10000-12000 yuan / ton.